Ivan Advisories

NorthGaWeather · #6961 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:57 am

Also note this for the MS/LA/TX people.

IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK
EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT. MEANWHILE...SINCE THE MOTION IS STILL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

freeport_texas2005 · #6962 Postby **freeport_texas2005** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:57 am

i agree...this thing has had well over 48hrs to turn...it hasent and i really dont think its going to...i think ivan is to big to make that tun

NorthGaWeather · #6963 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:58 am

logybogy wrote:http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

The SHIPS model shows
close to 20 kt of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this
shear a bit at 24 and 36 hours before increasing it significantly.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening after 12
hours but Ivan could still be a formidable hurricane when it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Doesn't seem to be really affecting it and its weakening rapidly. The significant shear is yet to be seen along the North Gulf Coast.

logybogy · #6964 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:01 am

He also mentions the possibility of it slamming into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Meanwhile...since the motion is still
west-northwestward...the center could miss the western tip of Cuba
and move through the Yucatan Channel and could even approach the
Yucatan Peninsula if a 300 degree heading is maintained for another
24 hours.

B-Bear · #6965 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:02 am

Ummm, the SHIPs model is forecasting shear. It doesn't say he's experiencing shear. And I don't see any evidence of 20 kt shear on satellite right now.

NorthGaWeather · #6966 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:03 am

CIMSS is showing the shear clearly but Ivan is not being affected much.

logybogy · #6967 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:04 am

Look at this loop and watch that ragged eye. it's actually rotating in a circle within the larger eye.

Freaky.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Derek Ortt · #6968 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:04 am

he maintained continuity with the track, but the intensity forecast reasoning form forecaster to forecaster is not being maintained, 1st its shear, then its cold water, then its shear again

B-Bear · #6969 Postby **B-Bear** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:06 am

Derek, I've never seen anything like this storm. HUGE area of convection, feeding from 2 oceans now, enormous eye. It really looks like he's trying to become an annular hurricane.

Possum Trot · #6970 Postby **Possum Trot** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:07 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:The trough over the Gulf coast states will have little impact.

NorthGaWeather wrote:There is an upper level low over NRN MS and the weak trough over the Gulf Coast States will create this weakness.

Is this a contradiction, or I am I missing something?

NorthGaWeather · #6971 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:08 am

Recon should be in there shortly if not already.

Matthew5 · #6972 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:08 am

This shear is nothing more then a flie to this hurricane. This hurricane is a cat5 which can pump up a giant upper level area of high pressure. Which will never allow shear to get any where near the center.

Derek Ortt · #6973 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:09 am

any small amount of shear, even as little as 10KT, will bring about a significant weakening of Ivan

NorthGaWeather · #6974 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:10 am

It will create a weakness with the low pressure but will not act like a huge trough digging into the area turning it NE quickly.

NorthGaWeather · #6975 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:12 am

URNT12 KNHC 130831
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0831Z
B. 20 DEG 06 MIN N
83 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2375 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 051 DEG 153 KT
G. 311 DEG 14 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3056 M
J. 18 C/ 3066 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 2809A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NW QUAD 0827Z.

NorthGaWeather · #6976 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:13 am

Well this 20 kt shear hasn't done that this early morning.

logybogy · #6977 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:14 am

Yeah, Derek, where's the weakening? There's still deep reds wrapping all around the large eye trying to form.

Latest recon still showed Cat 5 winds.

Hurrilurker · #6978 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:15 am

Pressure from vortex back down a tiny bit to 918 (although winds down a bit). Considering how ragged he looks right now that's pretty impressive, he's held steady all night now. Also looks to be going about true northwest now, could finally be the start of the slow north turn everyone is expecting.

kokomo · #6979 Postby **kokomo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:18 am

Well as Guns-n-Roses would say,

Welcome to the jungle
We've got fun 'n' games
We got everything you want
Honey, we know the names...

Ivan going to the Yucatan, hasta la vista ruskie-cane

southerngale · #6980 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:25 am

Thanks for the chuckle kokomo.

southtexasgal...yesterday I would have told you no way, right now nothing would surprise me. Ivan was given a forecast and he is not being very cooperative. The latest discussion says it all.

Ivan Advisories

Re: 5AM Discussion: Ivan currently experiencing 20kt shear

Wow, this is strange, eye rotating within larger eye

New Recon 918mb, 153 kt.

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