Please do not start a new thread for every advisory. We usually end up with several of them and it just clutters up the board. Please post all new advisories and discussions by the NHC in this thread only. Thanks!
Another reminder...before you start a new topic, please check to see if there is already a thread about the same subject. There are simply way too many threads about the same subject.
Post New Advisories and Discussions Here
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southerngale
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eye of the storm
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Ivan 5PM Discussion
000
WTNT44 KNHC 122100
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IVAN
HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE SWAPPED POSITIONS...WITH THE UKMET SHIFTING
EASTWARD WHILE NOGAPS SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE LATEST 18Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HAS ERODED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 90W LONGITUDE...
AND THE SLOW EASTWARD EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER THE
HURRICANE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON RECENT AIR
FORCE AND NOAA RECON REPORTS. HAVING SAID THAT...A NEW RECON REPORT
INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 4 MB IN THE PAST 2 HOURS DOWN
TO 916 MB. THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY...MAINLY
DUE TO ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BUT THE LOW SHEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE VERY WARM SSTS AHEAD OF IVAN SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE AT LEAST AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH UNTIL THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS REACHED IN 36-48 HOURS. SOME COOL UPWELLING IS EXPECTED
FROM THAT POINT UNTIL U.S. LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING
ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING DESPITE THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
BECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT
WHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN
THE LONGER TIME PERIODS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.3N 82.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.9N 83.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.3N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 23.1N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 25.4N 86.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 28.0N 86.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 32.5N 85.0W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/1800Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 122100
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IVAN
HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE SWAPPED POSITIONS...WITH THE UKMET SHIFTING
EASTWARD WHILE NOGAPS SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE LATEST 18Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HAS ERODED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 90W LONGITUDE...
AND THE SLOW EASTWARD EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR
WESTERN CUBA AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER THE
HURRICANE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON RECENT AIR
FORCE AND NOAA RECON REPORTS. HAVING SAID THAT...A NEW RECON REPORT
INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 4 MB IN THE PAST 2 HOURS DOWN
TO 916 MB. THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY...MAINLY
DUE TO ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BUT THE LOW SHEAR
CONDITIONS AND THE VERY WARM SSTS AHEAD OF IVAN SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE AT LEAST AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH UNTIL THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS REACHED IN 36-48 HOURS. SOME COOL UPWELLING IS EXPECTED
FROM THAT POINT UNTIL U.S. LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING
ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING DESPITE THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
BECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT
WHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN
THE LONGER TIME PERIODS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.3N 82.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.9N 83.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.3N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 23.1N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 25.4N 86.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 28.0N 86.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 32.5N 85.0W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/1800Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
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southerngale
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....
INCLUDING COZUMEL. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....
INCLUDING COZUMEL. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 43
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004
...Ivan regains category five strength while heading for western
Cuba...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to progreso. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 19.7 north...longitude 83.2 west or about 175 miles...
285 km...southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and a turn toward the northwest is expected early on
Monday. On this track...the center will pass near or over extreme
western Cuba Monday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft reported a
minimum central pressure of 917 mb...27.08 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally
higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.7 N... 83.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 917 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004
...Ivan regains category five strength while heading for western
Cuba...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to progreso. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 19.7 north...longitude 83.2 west or about 175 miles...
285 km...southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and a turn toward the northwest is expected early on
Monday. On this track...the center will pass near or over extreme
western Cuba Monday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft reported a
minimum central pressure of 917 mb...27.08 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally
higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.7 N... 83.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 917 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
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yoda
- Category 5
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- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 43
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004
Air Force recon this evening found a peak flight-level...700
mb...wind of 155 kt in the northwest eyewall of the hurricane.
This observation supports a current intensity of 140 kt...so Ivan
has regained category 5 status. Some fluctuations in strength are
likely over the next day or so...and if the eyewall passes over
portions of extreme western Cuba a slight reduction in intensity
may occur. The intensity forecast for Ivan over the Gulf of Mexico
is most problematic. Data from the NOAA G-IV jet show westerly
upper-tropospheric flow over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
which would cause an increase in shear over Ivan once it enters the
Gulf. Also...analyses from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows
even more westerly shear over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico than
over the southeastern Gulf. However the GFS model 200 mb wind
forecast shows the outflow of the hurricane dominating the
circulation over the eastern Gulf in 2-3 days...and the latest
SHIPS model run shows less vertical shear at this time frame than
in earlier runs. We are assuming that shear will play some role in
weakening the hurricane before landfall. Nonetheless Ivan is
expected to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane when it reaches
the United States coast.
The eye continues to wobble along a generally west-northwestward
heading...300/8. There is not much change to the track forecast
reasoning. A shortwave trough near the lower Mississippi River
valley is eroding the ridge to the north and northeast of Ivan.
This should induce a turn to the northwest very soon. By around 48
hours...it is expected that Ivan will be moving northward through
the weakness in the ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Compared
to yesterday...there has been increase in the dynamical model
spread beyond 48 hours. The official forecast is shifted a little
more to the west but is east of the consensus track...and leans
toward the GFDL and GFS solutions.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0300z 19.7n 83.2w 140 kt
12hr VT 13/1200z 20.8n 84.1w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/0000z 22.3n 85.0w 135 kt
36hr VT 14/1200z 23.9n 85.9w 135 kt
48hr VT 15/0000z 25.8n 86.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 16/0000z 30.0n 86.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 17/0000z 34.0n 84.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/0000z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2004
Air Force recon this evening found a peak flight-level...700
mb...wind of 155 kt in the northwest eyewall of the hurricane.
This observation supports a current intensity of 140 kt...so Ivan
has regained category 5 status. Some fluctuations in strength are
likely over the next day or so...and if the eyewall passes over
portions of extreme western Cuba a slight reduction in intensity
may occur. The intensity forecast for Ivan over the Gulf of Mexico
is most problematic. Data from the NOAA G-IV jet show westerly
upper-tropospheric flow over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
which would cause an increase in shear over Ivan once it enters the
Gulf. Also...analyses from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows
even more westerly shear over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico than
over the southeastern Gulf. However the GFS model 200 mb wind
forecast shows the outflow of the hurricane dominating the
circulation over the eastern Gulf in 2-3 days...and the latest
SHIPS model run shows less vertical shear at this time frame than
in earlier runs. We are assuming that shear will play some role in
weakening the hurricane before landfall. Nonetheless Ivan is
expected to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane when it reaches
the United States coast.
The eye continues to wobble along a generally west-northwestward
heading...300/8. There is not much change to the track forecast
reasoning. A shortwave trough near the lower Mississippi River
valley is eroding the ridge to the north and northeast of Ivan.
This should induce a turn to the northwest very soon. By around 48
hours...it is expected that Ivan will be moving northward through
the weakness in the ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Compared
to yesterday...there has been increase in the dynamical model
spread beyond 48 hours. The official forecast is shifted a little
more to the west but is east of the consensus track...and leans
toward the GFDL and GFS solutions.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0300z 19.7n 83.2w 140 kt
12hr VT 13/1200z 20.8n 84.1w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/0000z 22.3n 85.0w 135 kt
36hr VT 14/1200z 23.9n 85.9w 135 kt
48hr VT 15/0000z 25.8n 86.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 16/0000z 30.0n 86.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 17/0000z 34.0n 84.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/0000z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
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Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 43a
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
...Category five Hurricane Ivan threatens western Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to progreso. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 83.5 west or about 160 miles... 255 km...southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr... and a turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will pass near or over extreme western Cuba this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...19.9 N... 83.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
...Category five Hurricane Ivan threatens western Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to progreso. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 83.5 west or about 160 miles... 255 km...southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr... and a turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will pass near or over extreme western Cuba this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...19.9 N... 83.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 44
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
At 5 am EDT..0900z...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to
progreso.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands...but
will likely be lowered later today.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. This watch
could be lowered later today.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 20.2 north...longitude 83.9 west or about 120 miles...
195 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and a slight turn toward the northwest is expected during the next
24 hours. Depending on the exact motion...the center could miss
the western tip of Cuba and could even move near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.2 N... 83.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
At 5 am EDT..0900z...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to
progreso.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands...but
will likely be lowered later today.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas. This watch
could be lowered later today.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 20.2 north...longitude 83.9 west or about 120 miles...
195 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and a slight turn toward the northwest is expected during the next
24 hours. Depending on the exact motion...the center could miss
the western tip of Cuba and could even move near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.2 N... 83.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 44
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
a GPS dropsonde in the northeast quadrant of the eyewall at 0510z
measured an average wind speed of 176 kt through the lowest 500
meters of the drop. This converts to a surface wind of 141 kt. So
the initial wind speed is kept at 140 kt. The SHIPS model shows
close to 20 kt of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this
shear a bit at 24 and 36 hours before increasing it significantly.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening after 12
hours but Ivan could still be a formidable hurricane when it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
The track scenario remains the same. The hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn northward over the next 72 hours into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge...and then northeastward as it approaches the
westerlies. The ridge and its weakness are not very pronounced and
the forward motion is expected to be slow throughout the forecast
period...10 kt or less. When the forward motion is slow ...the
direction of motion is less certain. This is seen in the spread of
the global models. The GFS shows a landfall in the Florida
Panhandle while the UKMET and NOGAPS show a landfall in
southeastern Louisiana...all in about 72 hours. The consensus of
the models is near the Mississippi/Alabama border. The initial
motion estimate is 300/08. Most of the global track guidance
models have shifted to the left from the previous model runs...
except the GFDL which has shifted a little to the right. The
official forecast track is shifted about 60 N mi left of the
previous advisory at 72 hours and is still to the right of all
guidance except for the GFS. If I did not have a previous forecast
to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track
even further to the left. Meanwhile...since the motion is still
west-northwestward...the center could miss the western tip of Cuba
and move through the Yucatan Channel and could even approach the
Yucatan Peninsula if a 300 degree heading is maintained for another
24 hours.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0900z 20.2n 83.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 21.2n 84.8w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 135 kt
36hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 87.1w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 87.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/0600z 36.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
If I did not have a previous forecast
to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track
even further to the left
...and almost 1/2 of Louisiana is already in the cone!
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
a GPS dropsonde in the northeast quadrant of the eyewall at 0510z
measured an average wind speed of 176 kt through the lowest 500
meters of the drop. This converts to a surface wind of 141 kt. So
the initial wind speed is kept at 140 kt. The SHIPS model shows
close to 20 kt of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this
shear a bit at 24 and 36 hours before increasing it significantly.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening after 12
hours but Ivan could still be a formidable hurricane when it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
The track scenario remains the same. The hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn northward over the next 72 hours into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge...and then northeastward as it approaches the
westerlies. The ridge and its weakness are not very pronounced and
the forward motion is expected to be slow throughout the forecast
period...10 kt or less. When the forward motion is slow ...the
direction of motion is less certain. This is seen in the spread of
the global models. The GFS shows a landfall in the Florida
Panhandle while the UKMET and NOGAPS show a landfall in
southeastern Louisiana...all in about 72 hours. The consensus of
the models is near the Mississippi/Alabama border. The initial
motion estimate is 300/08. Most of the global track guidance
models have shifted to the left from the previous model runs...
except the GFDL which has shifted a little to the right. The
official forecast track is shifted about 60 N mi left of the
previous advisory at 72 hours and is still to the right of all
guidance except for the GFS. If I did not have a previous forecast
to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track
even further to the left. Meanwhile...since the motion is still
west-northwestward...the center could miss the western tip of Cuba
and move through the Yucatan Channel and could even approach the
Yucatan Peninsula if a 300 degree heading is maintained for another
24 hours.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0900z 20.2n 83.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 21.2n 84.8w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/0600z 22.5n 86.0w 135 kt
36hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 87.1w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 87.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/0600z 36.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
If I did not have a previous forecast
to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track
even further to the left
...and almost 1/2 of Louisiana is already in the cone!
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Code: Select all
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...IVAN STILL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADED FOR WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS WATCH
COULD BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT MOTION...THE CENTER COULD MISS
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Still a cat 5 160 mph and no change in direction WNW at 9 mph.20.4n-84.1w.More west shift will happen at 11 AM.
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Guest
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 45
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
...Extremely dangerous category 5 Ivan heading toward western Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
discontinued all warnings for all of the Cayman Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Hurricane watches may be required for portions of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later today or tonight.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 20.6 north...longitude 84.4 west or about 85 miles...
135 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr... and
this general motion is expected for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next
24 hours. During the past few hours...Sand Key in the lower Florida
Keys reported a sustained wind of 41 mph with a gust to 48 mph
during the passage of an outer rainband of Ivan.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 915 mb...27.02 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...20.6 N... 84.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 915 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
...Extremely dangerous category 5 Ivan heading toward western Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
discontinued all warnings for all of the Cayman Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Hurricane watches may be required for portions of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later today or tonight.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 20.6 north...longitude 84.4 west or about 85 miles...
135 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr... and
this general motion is expected for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next
24 hours. During the past few hours...Sand Key in the lower Florida
Keys reported a sustained wind of 41 mph with a gust to 48 mph
during the passage of an outer rainband of Ivan.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 915 mb...27.02 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...20.6 N... 84.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 915 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hold on here... anybody understand a CAT 3 Cane in ALABAMA?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00409.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00409.html
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 45
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
the initial motion is 310/07. The last 4 recon fixes suggest that
Ivan has slowed a little and has turned northwestward. This may
just be a temporary motion...but with increasing west to
northwesterly 300 mb flow impinging on Ivan...this may turn out to
be more of an established trend. The NHC model guidance has shifted
slightly westward...and so has the official forecast track. However
...Latest water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data indicate a 500
mb low over western Tennessee with a sharp north-south oriented
trough extending southward into the north central Gulf of
Mexico...which has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the
central and eastern Gulf. This has allowed the ridge across Texas
and Louisiana to build eastward over the western Gulf. The
mid-level wind flow across the Florida Peninsula has also veered
from easterly to southerly during the past 24 hours...suggesting
that the ridge has eroded a little farther east than the NOGAPS and
GFDN models have been forecasting. Therefore...the forecast track
remains on the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope.
The latest Air Force Reserve recon report indicated the pressure had
dropped another 2 mb in the past 2 hours while the eye diameter has
stabilized at a rather large 28-30 nmi. It is possible that Ivan
could strengthen another 5 kt or so before increasing northwesterly
300 mb shear disrupts the inner core convection. In the longer
term...Ivan will be moving over SSTs near 30c...with the shear
decreasing after 24 hours before it picks up again by 48-60 hours.
While the Gulf waters are warm...the depth of the warm water is
relatively shallow...except for a warm Eddy over the north-central
Gulf. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane at U.S.
Landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/1500z 20.6n 84.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 21.5n 85.3w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 23.2n 86.5w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0000z 25.2n 87.4w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1200z 27.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1200z 31.0n 86.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1200z 34.0n 84.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1200z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
the initial motion is 310/07. The last 4 recon fixes suggest that
Ivan has slowed a little and has turned northwestward. This may
just be a temporary motion...but with increasing west to
northwesterly 300 mb flow impinging on Ivan...this may turn out to
be more of an established trend. The NHC model guidance has shifted
slightly westward...and so has the official forecast track. However
...Latest water vapor imagery and 12z upper-air data indicate a 500
mb low over western Tennessee with a sharp north-south oriented
trough extending southward into the north central Gulf of
Mexico...which has eroded the subtropical ridge axis over the
central and eastern Gulf. This has allowed the ridge across Texas
and Louisiana to build eastward over the western Gulf. The
mid-level wind flow across the Florida Peninsula has also veered
from easterly to southerly during the past 24 hours...suggesting
that the ridge has eroded a little farther east than the NOGAPS and
GFDN models have been forecasting. Therefore...the forecast track
remains on the eastern edge of the model guidance envelope.
The latest Air Force Reserve recon report indicated the pressure had
dropped another 2 mb in the past 2 hours while the eye diameter has
stabilized at a rather large 28-30 nmi. It is possible that Ivan
could strengthen another 5 kt or so before increasing northwesterly
300 mb shear disrupts the inner core convection. In the longer
term...Ivan will be moving over SSTs near 30c...with the shear
decreasing after 24 hours before it picks up again by 48-60 hours.
While the Gulf waters are warm...the depth of the warm water is
relatively shallow...except for a warm Eddy over the north-central
Gulf. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane at U.S.
Landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/1500z 20.6n 84.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 21.5n 85.3w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 23.2n 86.5w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0000z 25.2n 87.4w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1200z 27.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1200z 31.0n 86.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1200z 34.0n 84.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1200z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
yoda wrote:Hold on here... anybody understand a CAT 3 Cane in ALABAMA?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00409.html
It's on the AL/FL border and it's only been inland for 2-3 hours at that point. Looks to me like they are predicting a Cat 4 at landfall.
Great... We're going to go somewhere if the current track holds(right over me about 5pm Thursday), probably Birmingham so we'll be on the weak side away from the center. Could still change though.
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#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145327
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Code: Select all
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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