Ivan Advisories
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- Tropical Depression
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Looks to me like the last couple of frames are showing an almost due north jog. Probably a wobble, but NW quadrant still flattening. Check out the dry air digging over SE Louisiana. Can someone explain if this is part of the existing forecast? Last few hours seem to be showing a slowing and if the troughiness over LA is still going SE, isn't this contrary to what we've been seeing since yesterday PM?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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- cycloneye
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New Vortex=919mbs,153kt NW QUAD,open south,C30 miles
Code: Select all
URNT12 KNHC 131012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1012Z
B. 20 DEG 13 MIN N
83 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2368 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 118 DEG 151 KT
G. 030 DEG 18 NM
H. 919 MB
I. 9 C/ 3087 M
J. 17 C/ 3068 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 2809A IVAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NW QUAD 0827Z. MAX FL TEMP 19 C 225/10NM
FROM FL CNTR.
Another ERC going on now.
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- cloud_galaxy
- Tropical Depression
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- Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:17 pm
Agree Gulfcoaster53. I noticed the digging throf into SE La. also. I do not think it was part of the 5:00AM package. I would think that this trof might pull Ivan a little more norwestward and north, but looking at the stronger trof moving through the western US towards the Central US, http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html, this may pick Ivan up & move him more into the Eastern Gulf or turn him more to the northeast later in the week. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert

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- Tropical Depression
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cycloneye!
Do you make anything of this? What about the dry air moving down from LA? Last 3 frames are almost due north. Know that's not enough for a trend but I haven't seen ANY movement in this direction until now. Is this dry air part of the current synoptic pattern/forecast? Thanks.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Do you make anything of this? What about the dry air moving down from LA? Last 3 frames are almost due north. Know that's not enough for a trend but I haven't seen ANY movement in this direction until now. Is this dry air part of the current synoptic pattern/forecast? Thanks.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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TampaFl wrote:Agree Gulfcoaster53. I noticed the digging throf into SE La. also. I do not think it was part of the 5:00AM package. I would think that this trof might pull Ivan a little more norwestward and north, but looking at the stronger trof moving through the western US towards the Central US, http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html, this may pick Ivan up & move him more into the Eastern Gulf or turn him more to the northeast later in the week. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
Agree with both of you as well. I too have been following it. Looks to have only move .1 North and .1 West in more than 2 hours which of course is NW. If this verifies that would be a MAJOR SLOW DOWN! Need to watch closely here on the West coast of Florida.
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- Tropical Depression
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- cloud_galaxy
- Tropical Depression
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- cycloneye
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See the 8 AM advisory at sticky thread above
Go there and look at the latest on cat 5 Ivan.
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- Windtalker
- Tropical Storm
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- HurryKane
- Category 5
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Windtalker wrote:As fast as the track changed to the West, it can change just as fast back to the EAST.....with a strong trough coming into the gulf by Wed morning, all bets are off with the path of Ivan come Wednesday morning.
Is it that strong though? I keep hearing that it's either weak, or going to lift out early, or both.
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Re: See the 8 AM advisory at sticky thread above
cycloneye wrote:Go there and look at the latest on cat 5 Ivan.
This is .2 North and .2 West from 5:00. This is NW. Lets see if it holds by 11:00 discussion. Also looks slower.
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- cape_escape
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