If I Lived in New Orleans...

LMolineux · #21 Postby **LMolineux** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:32 am

LMolineux wrote:This is what i called for on the 8th of Sept. And i kept this track since
http://www.theheadnut.com/tropical/ivancall6.gif

Trying this now

#22 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:33 am

If you live in new orleans and haven't seen the stickyed thread on the New Orleans Emergancy guide...go here...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44500

#23 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:34 am

jason0509 wrote:Mike, I've been thinking, crazily, all day that this storm (given how it's been south and west of track all along) could just plow right into Mexico and not even affect CONUS...Could you go through the factors that would lead to this scenario....assess if they are likely or not....and also what do you think will turn this storm NW?

Thanks!

Like I mentioned above I am just now reconnecting to the hurricane matrix...and I will need some time to answer this question as it is more detailed than I am prepared for at this time.

The only thing off the top of my head lending to that solution are the eventual tracks of Keith...Mitch...and to a lesser extend Isidore.

But please remind me tomorrow and I'll do my best at a more detailed answer. I am actually heading for bed and can't will my brain into thinking any further than that.

MW

WeatherNLU · #24 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:35 am

Well, I think we need to be very concerned, but not get over anxious yet. We have some more time to watch, about 24 more hours. If things continue as they are, I plan to put the boards on my house tomorrow evening or first thing Tuesday morning, just depending on the track. I already have what I need incase of a close hit, but not a direct hit (i.e. if we stay) but anything close I am out here because of my two young children. I might make some reservations tomorrow also as long as they are able to be cancelled.

JTD · #25 Postby **JTD** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:36 am

MWatkins wrote:
jason0509 wrote:Mike, I've been thinking, crazily, all day that this storm (given how it's been south and west of track all along) could just plow right into Mexico and not even affect CONUS...Could you go through the factors that would lead to this scenario....assess if they are likely or not....and also what do you think will turn this storm NW?

Thanks!

Like I mentioned above I am just now reconnecting to the hurricane matrix...and I will need some time to answer this question as it is more detailed than I am prepared for at this time.

The only thing off the top of my head lending to that solution are the eventual tracks of Keith...Mitch...and to a lesser extend Isidore.

But please remind me tomorrow and I'll do my best at a more detailed answer. I am actually heading for bed and can't will my brain into thinking any further than that.

MW

Mike..sure..no prob

I'll PM you tommorow or start a post with your name in it or something like that...

SwampDawg · #26 Postby **SwampDawg** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:42 am

I've heard that they started evacuating the Gulf yesterday. I'll have more info when i get into the office this morning and make a few calls. I'll post it when i get word.

#27 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:46 am

Good thread MW. (sup WeatherNLU?)

I posted some thoughts on the Canadian 00z thread, but people here are beginning to recognize the threat. Everyone on the northern Gulf has to realize the threat. Ivan is likely to be the worst hit on the Gulf in many, many seasons. He's shaping up to be a really large storm, so the damage is going to be widespread damage from the large windfield - potentially even for someone 150 miles east of landfall. It is in everyone's best interest to begin getting your things in order in the event you either have to hunker down or get out.

Since so many of us are going to pay, I'd like to wish good luck and prayers to everyone who is affected.

Steve

WeatherNLU · #28 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:47 am

Steve wrote:Good thread MW. (sup WeatherNLU?)

I posted some thoughts on the Canadian 00z thread, but people here are beginning to recognize the threat. Everyone on the northern Gulf has to realize the threat. Ivan is likely to be the worst hit on the Gulf in many, many seasons. He's shaping up to be a really large storm, so the damage is going to be widespread damage from the large windfield - potentially even for someone 150 miles east of landfall. It is in everyone's best interest to begin getting your things in order in the event you either have to hunker down or get out.

Since so many of us are going to pay, I'd like to wish good luck and prayers to everyone who is affected.

Steve

Hey bro, what's up.

Who dat sey dey gonna beat dem Saints?

#29 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:48 am

>>I've heard that they started evacuating the Gulf yesterday. I'll have more info when i get into the office this morning and make a few calls. I'll post it when i get word.

Hey Swamp,

My brother in law works at one of the Newpark yards down the bayou. He got called in for his 7-days on early as the other crane operators have been moved to New Iberia. There should be a lot of activity on the rigs and in the yards over the next few days.

Steve

Sean in New Orleans · #30 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:49 am

IF this system were to come within 50 miles of New Orleans, I can guarantee everyone that we are looking at that "nightmare," scenario for the metro area. But, again, I stress, New Orleans does have all necessary plans in place, already, to handle any hurricane in the best way possible. Our emergency officials have properly done all planning measures already this year, attacking every problem you could imagine that would occur with this type of storm. Still--it won't be pretty if Ivan comes here--I promise you that one.

Sean in New Orleans · #31 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:51 am

WeatherNLU wrote:
Steve wrote:Good thread MW. (sup WeatherNLU?)

I posted some thoughts on the Canadian 00z thread, but people here are beginning to recognize the threat. Everyone on the northern Gulf has to realize the threat. Ivan is likely to be the worst hit on the Gulf in many, many seasons. He's shaping up to be a really large storm, so the damage is going to be widespread damage from the large windfield - potentially even for someone 150 miles east of landfall. It is in everyone's best interest to begin getting your things in order in the event you either have to hunker down or get out.

Since so many of us are going to pay, I'd like to wish good luck and prayers to everyone who is affected.

How about Seattle....booooooohhh Saints....

Steve

Hey bro, what's up.

Who dat sey dey gonna beat dem Saints?

Sean in New Orleans · #32 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:52 am

How about Seattle...Boooooh Saints!!

HoumaLa · #33 Postby **HoumaLa** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:49 am

I live 52 miles SW of New Orleans. Went to bed with Ivan going in FL panhandle Man This storm is something making everybody freak out. Will start preps today

cajungal · #34 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:14 am

I live 60 miles southwest of New Orleans. Just 10 miles north of Houma in Terrebonne Parish. It is a bit scary. I think we stand a better chance than the panhandle right now. Just my opinion.

HurryKane · #35 Postby **HurryKane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:26 am

I live 60 miles east of NOLA. I am running around finishing preparations while trying to limit my S2K time (that's probably the hardest part, heh).

Waking up to the AL/FL border track forecast was more eye-opening than the floor dropping out from under ya.

I'm tired. And nervous.

#36 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:30 am

I am 10 E of New Orleans and a nervous wreck I might ad.
My plans are in place but I have to work today.
Wish my boss would let us go home early. I am very concerned. I have 2 elderly parents I have to worry about.

nolastorm · #37 Postby **nolastorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:39 am

kind of concerned here in New Orleans - was hoping to wake up to better news. if we continue to look like we are in the path of Ivan, when would the city start evacuating - the hardest thing about these storms is deciding if and when to leave. I still remember being in bumper to bumper traffic trying to leave for Georges - would like to avoid that if possible.

Jagno · #38 Postby **Jagno** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:43 am

I live in S.W. La and one thing I can say from our last evacuation here is that Texas closed all of it's northbound routes to ITS TEXAS RESIDENTS ONLY all the way to Houston. If this looks like a massive evac for the south coast go north, not west into Texas. Alot of our residents ended up stranded on I-10 westbound when this occured. Some gas stations in Texas around the Beaumont area would not even let the Louisiana residents get gas, that too was for Texas residents only.

It's a shame to even think this, but most S.W. La. residents are hoping to repay the favor in a Texas time of need since they were so neighborly. The problem is.............we just aren't that type and when it came down to it we'd give them the shirt off of our backs to keep another human being warm.

It's nothing against you kind Texas folks here on this board. I have no doubt that you personally wouldn't do this but it was done and it did cause alot of hardship during our last evacuation.

hla97 · #39 Postby **hla97** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:46 am

I live down in Plaquemines Parish - They are thinking of starting a Mandatory Evacuation Tonight or tomorrow morning. Guess they know something we dont So ill be out of here tomorrow.

goodlife · #40 Postby **goodlife** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:58 am

I am at 30.15.61 N and 92.05.81 W...that's about as specific as you can get...lol
What does that translate to?? Just north of Lake Pontchartrain in Mandeville..

If I Lived in New Orleans...

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