Think it is ok to return to Key West??

[Ziplock48]

Does anyone think that with a cat 5 South of Key West, and forcast to turn towards the north at any minute, that officials have been too hasty in allowing people to head back for the keys?

Key West radar showed a heavy feeder band with heavy rains passing over the keys this am.

I, for one, would not want to be on those bridges with that kind of weather.

US1 is a very danderous road...the 18 mile stretch is infamous for its collisions.

I doubt that Ivan will turn NE, which he would have to do for a direct strike, but a little more N ward motion, a wobble of a few mile in that direction could mean a change in forcast conditions.

I just think it is unwise, given the unpredictability of Ivan's track. I mean, then Officials are putting a lot of stock in the forcast...
Zip

[Anonymous]

I think the Keys are out of the woods with this storm and say "Hi" to Jimmy Buffet.

[Guest]

Given the narrowness of the 7 mile bridge and the probability of feeder bands, I'm a bit surprised myself. I just saw a thread here where winds had been reported around 40 mph in the Keys this morning. Here in our area, they close the bridges at anything over 30-35mph.
...Jennifer...

[Air Force Met]

It's actually not south of Key West...its southwest . That would mean it needed to turn NE now...and that won't happen.

[Ziplock48]

Air Force Met, you are correct regarding the location of the storm. I sould have written, "South of Latitude 25N", not "South of the Keys"> I stand corrected.

NWS service Key West reported sutained winds above 40mph and gusts to 49mph on Sands Key as feeder band came through.

My poit is that the Keys are now within the circulation of the storm, as bands look like they will continue to sweep through the keys for some time to come.

Note: this in no way constitutes a w**h-c**st.

Zip

[Josephine96]

I do believe Keys residents were told they could go back,, so maybe you should

[seannymac]

I live on Big Pine Key which is 30 miles from Key West. I was staying with my folks in Homestead. We loaded up everyone today, and returned home. It was a nice drive. No traffic and the weather was not that bad. I left around 8:30. The traffic was sparse and the Keys are deserted.

I think we will see a huge influx of traffic this afternoon. Most Conchs and residents went to Central Fla to ride this out. They all will reach the stretch this afternoon.

[Aquawind]

My Friends on big Pine say it's been a little rainy but nothing out of the ordinary for summer..

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn ... gmz054.txt

With the mega bust already and track uncertainty mentioned in nearly every write up it sure seems like they are MOST confident it won't move NE for awhile..Hope they don't bust..

[FloridaDiver]

I think the Keys are out of the woods with this storm and say "Hi" to Jimmy Buffet.

I lived in the Keys for 4 years, Most true Conchs do not like Jimmy Buffet, in fact he does not live there, never has.. it's "marketing" from corporate "Parot Heads"

As for the weather their, just got off the phone from a friend who owns a dive shop in Islanmorada, cloudy, windy and lots of cars on US1 going south so many are returning.

[ObsessedMiami]

I think the Keys are out of the woods with this storm and say "Hi" to Jimmy Buffet.

I lived in the Keys for 4 years, Most true Conchs do not like Jimmy Buffet, in fact he does not live there, never has..

.

Umm... Jimmy did live in Key West for several years in the early 70's.

[ColdWaterConch]

I think the Keys are out of the woods with this storm and say "Hi" to Jimmy Buffet.

I lived in the Keys for 4 years, Most true Conchs do not like Jimmy Buffet, in fact he does not live there, never has.. it's "marketing" from corporate "Parot Heads"

As for the weather their, just got off the phone from a friend who owns a dive shop in Islanmorada, cloudy, windy and lots of cars on US1 going south so many are returning.

And his recording studio...Shrimpboat Sound...is in Key West.

[Guest]

Go home.

[Ziplock48]

I must not have been too clear...I am not a resisent of the Keys at this time. This post was not about my about my travel plans, but about the travel plans of others.

I had the unfortunate experience of being on the Rickenbacker Causeway, the bridge between Key Biscayne and Miami , when a band from Hurricane Betsey came through. The winds rocked our car like it was a feather. It was the first time I ever saw my father show fear. This happened following a series of forcasts that had given us an all clear for Miami, since Betsey was obviously moving directly away from us...but then the storm did a loop, reversing direction, and headed straigt for us!
Everyone was really scrambling...as we were, to get the heck away from the Island. People DID panic. I saw it with my own eyes.

So, I have personal experience in having the forcast and current track turn out to be not at all what happened. Granted, this was along time ago, and techniques have improved a lot since then, but still, the situation is that for Ivan, most models are in agreement at this time that two things will happen, a turn to the north, followed by a turn to the NE. Of course, it is not likely to happen that Ivan will suddenly turn N and NE, but strange things happen with these hurricanes, now, don't they?

I am not hoping the storm comes my way, believe me when I write this! (my home is is South Dade County). I am hoping for shear, very stong shear...

Zip