Ivan: First Hints of a More Northward Movement?

[donsutherland1]

Rather than temporary wobbles that quickly see a resumption of the earlier movement that preceded them, there is growing evidence now that Ivan may be starting to make a gradual turn more to the north. This trend, if sustained, should bring him through the Yucatan Channel later today.

Positions:

9/12 5 pm 19.3N 82.5W
9/12 11 pm 19.7N 83.2W +0.4N +0.7W (approx. 295°)
9/13 8 am 20.4N 84.1W +0.7N +0.9W (approx. 305°)

What is important is that this trend has now been sustained for more than 12 hours.

If the 11 am and later reports show a persistent track somewhere in the 305° to 315° range, then the recent 15-hour track will likely have indicated the beginning of Ivan's turn more to the north.

[Brent]

It's about time.

[SwampDawg]

We have seen eye replacement finally over with....Time will tell, but it appears to still be going WNW

[caneman]

Rather than temporary wobbles that quickly see a resumption of the earlier movement that preceded them, there is growing evidence now that Ivan may be starting to make a gradual turn more to the north. This trend, if sustained, should bring him through the Yucatan Channel later today.

Positions:

9/12 5 pm 19.3N 82.5W
9/12 11 pm 19.7N 83.2W +0.4N +0.7W (approx. 295°)
9/13 8 am 20.4N 84.1W +0.7N +0.9W (approx. 305°)

What is important is that this trend has now been sustained for more than 12 hours.

If the 11 am and later reports show a persistent track somewhere in the 305° to 315° range, then the recent 15-hour track will likely have indicated the beginning of Ivan's turn more to the north.

Yeah, I made a post on this earlier too. I agree. It is much closer to NW then WNW now. In addition, and this is significant. Having plotted out where the system is now from 5:00AM and where they expected it to be in 12 hours, the system will fall short. My estimation is that this is crawling along at 5 to 6 mph. Could have significant long term implications.

[Guest]

11am advisory just released does have the storm going NW.
...Jennifer...

[yoda]

As MrsChad said.... but to add on....

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 kt

That's from the 11 AM Marine Advisory...

[caneman]

As MrsChad said.... but to add on....

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 kt

That's from the 11 AM Marine Advisory...

Cool, NHC a lottle late with this as it was going more NW before the 8:00 advisory. Now down to 8 mph but I actually think it may be only 6 or 7 mph. Could have big time long range implications. We'll see. Certainly is keeping everyones interest in the GOM.

[Guest]

Say good bye to Cubas drought. It is moving so slow.

[LAwxrgal]

It was forecast to move NW for 2 days now. About dang time.

[Aquawind]

What?..no more WNW...Now things should get real interesting..

[Anonymous]

Several models (UKMET, GFS. Bamm, Bamd) show an ENE track at some point-and the others show a more gradual NE turn-Time will tell if it happends over the gulf or over land

[Stormtrack03]

I think Jekyhe it will likely happen more over water first.

[caneman]

Several models (UKMET, GFS. Bamm, Bamd) show an ENE track at some point-and the others show a more gradual NE turn-Time will tell if it happends over the gulf or over land

Yes, they do and if this system stay slow as it has, it could go as far East as Tampa - IMHO. Still too early tell but watch the trend.

[Josephine96]

Central Fla not out of the woods if this things goes ENE or E

[Sanibel]

Not to be disruptive, but this was obvious to the many of us who were saying this last night. The mild pull-up was happening as soon as it exited Grand Cayman. They just dodged a direct hit there...

[Stephanie]

Not to be disruptive, but this was obvious to the many of us who were saying this last night. The mild pull-up was happening as soon as it exited Grand Cayman. They just dodged a direct hit there...

So, the pull-up was a precursor to the turn (just to clarify)?

[Sanibel]

Eh, sort of just semantics. Technically the mild WNW movement of the last two days is a slow recurve under the ridge.

No doubt it is curving up through the Channel now and will curve straight up and into the Gulf and towards somebody as a strong storm.

It should just clip the west tip of Cuba with a clean pass over very favorable Gulf Stream waters.

We just got a gusty first band and now it is dry and calm again 5 minutes later. Roof patch held!

[kevin]

Roof patch held!<<

Glad to hear! Really hoping the storm doesn't bring too much bad weather to you guys..

[donsutherland1]

The 2 pm data found Ivan at 20.9N 84.7W.

Based on this data, I am now strongly confident that Ivan has indeed made the turn more to the north. Moreover, if one examines Ivan's track over 12-hour periods, the turn more to the north is both unmistakable and increasing:

Ivan's Track:

12-Hour Periods Ended:
9/12 12z: 283°
9/12 18z: 291°
9/13 0z: 290°
9/13 3z: 289°
9/13 6z: 293° (Start of the Turn)
9/13 9z: 299°
9/13 12z: 301°
9/13 15z: 306°

Overall, I expect Ivan to be tracking at or above 315° either later today or very early tomorrow. The gradual turn to the north should be continuing.

[Lockhart]

Thanks for the stats, Don. Are you saying that, in your opinion, it's not going to "just" turn NW but keep going all the way to 360/0 degrees right away? Thanks in advance.