New Ivan Forecast... New Orleans

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Lindaloo
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#41 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:47 am

Stormtrack03 wrote:I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.


Can you give us a reason as to why you think this? :D
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Stormtrack03
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#42 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:50 am

Lindaloo wrote:
Stormtrack03 wrote:I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.


Can you give us a reason as to why you think this? :D



sure Linda, firstly, the NHC is keeping their model guidance on the east side of the model guidance other than the middle or west side. Also, they are hinting at a more NW turn earlier than exected and maybe longer which may push it more North and then NE after time once the weakness builds. I don't think its fair to "accuse" someone from NHC like Stewart of being the most right forecaster, and thus discounting any of his thoughts. Remember he represents the NHC and its not just him posting his thoughts its really the general view of the NHC.
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ixl
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#43 Postby ixl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:58 am

The NHC says they are on "the east side of the model guidanace" -- which models do they mean? They seem to be east of every model now except the goofy-tracked BAMM. Even their beloved GFS is west of them.

I agree, the 11 am track and discussion make no sense at all. JMHO.
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Stormcenter
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#44 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:05 am

bfez1 wrote:Witha NW track now I am feeling a little better about it. Just hope this motion holds.


NW motion is toward LA.
That would not be good for New Orleans.
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