LA residents not aware of a threat!

[HollynLA]

Now, this may not be the cast of some other areas, but most of the people around me are vaguely aware of any threat from Ivan coming to LA. I had a few people comment "poor Florida, getting hit again". I'm fearful of residents not being prepared due to lack of knowledge on Ivan. If you watch TV, it's all about Florida, if you watch TWC, it's all about Florida. Very Very little is even being mentioned about south LA, MS (with the exception of a few local mets). There are some local mets who are blowing it off as a FL storm as well. It certainly can hit FL, but they should make other areas just as aware, especially south LA because of it's unique situation and prone to excessive flooding.

Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[LAMOM]

From what I have heard this morning it is the same here near Baton Rouge. Everyone I spoke to this morning assumes it is going to Florida.

[LAmomof3]

Most people in my town here in Louisiana taking Ivan very seriously this morning! Local retail store full of people buying supplies. Actually had to park and walk down canned meat isle! With path so uncertain, everyone on Gulf Coast needs to be prepared.

[GalvestonDuck]

Heck, I just got an email from someone who decided to go ahead and leave work to stock up on water and gas.

[sunny]

Everyone in my office is certainly paying attention.

[BigO]

I'm 90% boarded up and am now securing the lawn missiles.

[southerngale]

Heck, I just got an email from someone who decided to go ahead and leave work to stock up on water and gas.

In Galveston?

[HollynLA]

It's good to see other areas taking notice. Nothing is happening here that I can see. I'm about to head to wally world, maybe I'll get a different impression there. Hopefully, the preperations will not have to be used this time and we can save them for the next time.

[Novelty's Worn Off]

I beg to differ, hollynLA, at least here in Foley, AL, prep is well under way, just got back from LOWES, there is a great deal of activity in town in lieu of preparedness.

[Innotech]

the company I work for is taking definite notice. Discussions are being madfe just in case, but I think that northern turn is happening and we are in the clear.
If it comes back west again Ill be much more concerned.

[GalvestonDuck]

Heck, I just got an email from someone who decided to go ahead and leave work to stock up on water and gas.

In Galveston?

Yup. The WEST end, no less. Little, if any, confidence in the forecast cone. I said I was going to wait until tomorrow before I worry. As long as he's moving more NNW by tomorrow night (if not more N), I'm not going to stress it.

[Steve]

Like I said in the posts last night, everyone I know is taking the storm VERY seriously (even though the real threat is more likely for the MS/AL/WFL coast). It's the only topic of conversation at work today. My wife went out and bought supplies for her and the kids should they choose to evacuate on Wed.

People can beat the rush on ice, gas and water (Sav A Center on Airline was out of gallon jugs already by 12:00pm last night), but there is a minimum of 48-60 hours to prepare even if we are identified as having a worse scenario than what I'm thinking. I'm expecting New Orleans to experience Georges type effects with lots of downed limbs (= power out) and not too much rain. We should see more of the "sweep it up" type effects than what will be seen closer to the eyewall and farther east.

Good luck with everyone's preparations wherever you are. May your lines be short and your beer cold!

Steve

[MGC]

I hit wall mart this morning. Still was able to get batteries, water ect. Store was empty of customers at 10am. Looks like most MS coasters are still in denial or are putting off getting ready. Looks like a typical Monday morning at my house. I am the only one on the block getting my outdoor stuff put up....MGC

[southerngale]

Heck, I just got an email from someone who decided to go ahead and leave work to stock up on water and gas.

In Galveston?

Yup. The WEST end, no less. Little, if any, confidence in the forecast cone. I said I was going to wait until tomorrow before I worry. As long as he's moving more NNW by tomorrow night (if not more N), I'm not going to stress it.

Wow duckie. I'll admit that I haven't even entertained the idea of it making it this far west. You're right though...a few days ago the cone was covering the state of Florida but I still don't think it'll get any further west than Louisiana. Better to be prepared though!

[avakattack]

Tulane University on website says Ivan is making gradual turn north which is good news for New Orleans. Are they insane? Do they have any understanding of reality. Apparently are taking cues on university evacuation from some service called Impact Weather. Their next update is due out in a few hours. I am not saying that New Orleans is a cinch for a direct hit but that good news stance is completely unwarranted. Glad my brother graduated from Tulane and no longer resides in New Orleans area. He had to evacuate for Hurricane Georges in 1998 at a time when the university was also fumbling around.

avakattack

[GalvestonDuck]

Wow duckie. I'll admit that I haven't even entertained the idea of it making it this far west. You're right though...a few days ago the cone was covering the state of Florida but I still don't think it'll get any further west than Louisiana. Better to be prepared though!

This is what they're reading over here:

Special Tide Statement No. 2...Hurricane Ivan
Issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
7:10 AM CDT Monday, September 13, 2004

...Hurricane Ivan is now an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane in the Northwest
Caribbean Sea and moving toward the Gulf of Mexico via the Yucatan Channel...

...Long period swells may affect tides along the Upper Texas Coast by Wednesday...

This statement is primarily intended for marine interests and persons along the
Upper Texas Coast from Port O'Connor to Sabine Pass including Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay and Sabine Lake. It may also be of interest to persons elsewhere
in the coastal counties of Calhoun...Victoria...Jackson...Matagorda...Brazoria...
Galveston...Harris...Chambers...Jefferson and Orange which includes all of the
Houston/Galveston and Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange Metropolitan Areas.

At 7:00 AM CDT...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 20.4ºN
and longitude 84.1ºW or about 110 miles SSE of the western tip of Cuba. This
position is also 912 milese SE of Jamaica Beach, Texas. The hurricane is
moving WNW at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with
gusts to 195 mph. The central pressure is 919 millibars or 27.14 inches.
This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane capable of
inflicting catastrophic damage.

The current 5-day official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has
Hurricane Ivan moving WNW to NW into the Yucatan Channel between the
tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula for the remainder of today and tonight
then gradually turning NNW to N into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday
and Wednesday with landfall between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida
early Thursday morning. However, it should be emphasized that long range
forecasts for tropical cyclones are subject to a large degree of error and may be
off by as much as several hundred miles.

Hurricane Ivan has defied most of the computer guidance models for the past
24 to 48 hours and maintained a steady WNW track ever since the storm
made a westward wobble to the south of Jamaica. Accordingly, it has been
necessary to shift the official forecast track further westward along the
Gulf Coast than what was noted on earlier advisories from the National Hurricane
Center. This has also caused the government of Mexico to post a Hurricane
Warning for the northern and eastern coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula
which was previously expected to miss the hurricane altogether.

There is growing concern that Ivan may be exhibiting characteristics almost
exclusive to a Category 5 hurricane in which the hurricane is so powerful that
it creates its own upper level steering environment and is less susceptible to
the steering currents of nearby weather systems. This was the case with
Hurricane Allen (1980) and Hurricane Gilbert (1988) in which an almost
persistent WNW track was maintained for several days despite predictions
that the storm would recurve NW to N. Therefore, the aforementioned
hurricanes eventually made landfall on the Lower Texas Coast or Upper
Mexican Coast respectively although as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall.

In the current situation with Hurricane Ivan, all of the guidance models used
by the National Hurricane Center failed to move Hurricane Ivan as far westward
in the Caribbean Sea as the storm has gotten to this point. Instead, they have
consistently maintained that the hurricane will eventually be pulled NW to N into
a weakness on the west side of the high pressure ridge situated to the north of
the hurricane. These models have also insisted that Ivan will eventually be
weakened by upper level westerly wind shear further north in the Gulf of Mexico.

Whatever the case may be with respect to the computer models, it is imperative
that residents along the entire Texas Coast maintain a vigilant watch on the future
progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.

The current strike probabilities that the center of Hurricane Ivan will make landfall
within 75 miles of the Upper Texas Coast within the next 72 hours are 3% at
Port O'Connor...5% at Freeport...6% at Galveston and 7% at Port Arthur. At
this point with the hurricane over 900 miles from the Texas Coast...these
probabilities are naturally quite low in their value. However, it is much more
important to focus on the trend of the number rather than the value of the
number. In other words, is it decreasing, increasing or remaining the same.

Long period swells associated with Hurricane Ivan will be entering the Gulf of
Mexico today and will affect the Texas Coast by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Tides levels will rise by at least a half foot to a foot along the Gulf beaches and
possibly as much as 2 feet along the north and eastward facing bay shorelines.

This would include the bayshore of Galveston Island along West Bay...the
bayshore of Bolivar Peninsula...the bayshore from Virginia Point (near the
Galveston Causeway) to Morgans Point...the west bayshores of Matagorda
Bay and Sabine Lake...Clear Lake...along the Houston Ship Channel in Harris
County...and near the mouths of the Colorado...San Bernard...Brazos...San
Jacinto...Trinity and Sabine Rivers as well as near the mouths of their tributaries.

The following indicates the times (in CDT) of high tides for today, Tuesday and
Wednesday for selected locations along the Upper Texas Coast:

Sabine Pass:
High tides at 4:10 AM and 2:53 PM today.
High tides at 4:27 AM and 3:42 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 4:41 AM and 4:33 PM Wednesday.

Port Bolivar:
High tides at 5:30 AM and 3:37 PM today.
High tides at 5:42 AM and 4:38 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 5:53 AM and 5:42 PM Wednesday.

Clear Lake Channel at Kemah/Seabrook:
High tides at 11:21 AM today.
High tides at 11:33 AM Tuesday.
High tides at 11:33 PM Wednesday.

Texas City (turning basin):
High tides at 5:49 AM and 3:46 PM today.
High tides at 6:01 AM and 4:57 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 6:12 AM and 6:01 PM Wednesday.

Galveston Channel at Pier 21:
High tides at 5:16 AM and 3:23 PM today.
High tides at 5:28 AM and 4:24 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 5:39 AM and 5:28 PM Wednesday.

Galveston Flagship Pier:
High tides at 4:26 AM and 2:47 PM today.
High tides at 4:40 AM and 3:42 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 4:52 AM and 4:39 PM Wednesday.

West Bay at Jamaica Beach:
High tides at 7:54 AM and 6:01 PM today.
High tides at 8:06 AM and 7:02 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 8:17 AM and 8:06 PM Wednesday.

San Luis Pass:
High tides at 5:07 AM and 3:14 PM today.
High tides at 5:19 AM and 4:15 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 5:30 AM and 5:19 PM Wednesday.

Freeport (harbor entrance):
High tides at 4:32 AM and 2:39 PM today.
High tides at 4:44 AM and 3:40 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 4:55 AM and 4:44 PM Wednesday.

Pass Cavallo (near port O'Connor):
High tides at 5:16 AM and 3:32 PM today.
High tides at 5:28 AM and 4:24 PM Tuesday.
High tides at 5:39 AM and 5:28 PM Wednesday.


At this time, long period swells and slightly higher tides are the maximum
expected impact from Hurricane Ivan along the Upper Texas Coast. However,
marine interests and persons in the above mentioned locations are again
strongly urged to monitor the future progress of this extremely dangerous
hurricane until the eventual location of landfall becomes more certain.

The next statement will be issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory at
6:00 AM CDT Tuesday or sooner if conditions warrant. This statement may also
be obtained from the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory web site.

Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory

[opera ghost]

We've already made the decision to take our cat and leave if we fall anywhere within the cone before landfall... even on the extreme west end (which, if the track shifts to NOLA we might be). Double checking all the hurricane supplies tonight, getting the cat carrier out and keeping an eye on the cone....

HOWEVER, leaving for us is extreamly easy and cheap- we go to stay with my father in law (who adores having us over and has been itching to meet the cat) in San Antonio- our costs are gas and time off- and we both have more time off than we know what to do with and fuel effecient cars *Laughs*

We don't want any part of Ivan... not tropical storm winds- not cat 1 winds... not even a cloudy day. He's just too unpredictable.

[Radar]

I heard on the TV last night that it takes 48-72 hours to properly evacuate New Orleans during a hurricane threat... We are less then 72 hours now from the landfall... Why hasnt New Orleans started to issue a voluntary evacuation? Why havent they told people in mobile homes to get ready to leave? There is not even a hurricane watch posted yet. What are they waiting for? If IVAN makes a beeline for New Orleans it will be seriously bad news!!!

[B-Bear]

Yes it will be. And if they tell everyone to evacuate and the storm lands in the FL panhandle, then emergency management officials will be dogged for jumping the gun at the cost of millions of dollars. The public bears a responsibility in these problems too. If they want to be safe, they need to stop whining that they were inconvenienced when the storm goes somewhere else.

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks duckie. I hadn't seen that.