Bastardi takes a stand

#1 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:09 pm

He likes a Mouth of the Mississippi landfall on Wed. @ 120-140mph, gales possible to 200 miles either side of landfall and flooding int he southern Appalachains thereafter. I think Bastardi is a bit far west, but the ideas are there. He decided to take a stand and make his final call.

Steve

Hurricane Cheese · #2 Postby **Hurricane Cheese** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:11 pm

Very very interesting....certainly a major Cat 3/4 Cane then according to him! :eek:

Bastardi was indeed right when he said back when Frances was bearing down that Ivan would cause, "Great wailing and gnashing of teeth."

Cape Verde · #3 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:11 pm

Wouldn't that be the doomsday scenario for New Orleans?

#4 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:13 pm

Cape Verde wrote:Wouldn't that be the doomsday scenario for New Orleans?

I think I read it takes a SE to NW direction for the doomsday scenario. Ivan will be going north at that point, won't it?

#5 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:13 pm

Nothing less that Cat 4, 140-150mph at landfall

Cape Verde · #6 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:16 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
I think I read it takes a SE to NW direction for the doomsday scenario. Ivan will be going north at that point, won't it?

<P>Either that, or a SW to NE direction. But the forecast didn't indicate a direction of landfall.

rtd2 · #7 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:16 pm

Yes, but it's crawling and the trough is slowly retreating itself. So the question for me is will it turn north and move faster. The slower it goes the WNW movement may resume IMO.

Yes and No If that track came to pass alot of water would be pushed south out of lake ponchatrain into N.O. so major flooding BUT YES se to nw track would be even worse

#8 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:16 pm

Steve wrote:He likes a Mouth of the Mississippi landfall on Wed. @ 120-140mph, gales possible to 200 miles either side of landfall and flooding int he southern Appalachains thereafter. I think Bastardi is a bit far west, but the ideas are there. He decided to take a stand and make his final call.

Steve

What's your take on B's forecast Steve?

wabbitoid · #9 Postby **wabbitoid** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:17 pm

I think the doomsday has ben revised to include any kind of hit by cat4 winds. A hit on Biloxi is probably the worst case, as the surge backs up Ponchtrain and the winds blow that back south to the city.

New Orleans must evacuate while there is time.

#10 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:37 pm

bfez,

I think he's too far west, but I like the caution of gale force winds 200 miles either side. There is going to be a lot of power outages across the Gulf South as we haven't had anything to knock off the dead tree limbs since last winter. So if you're from Morgan City to Panama City, you're gonna feel some effects. Also, this will be the most powerful storm in recent memory to landfall. I don't feel like researching, but I'm thinking Elanea (sp?) and Erin were the worst storms since Camille to landfall on the NC Gulf.

Steve

calidoug · #11 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:40 pm

LOL. Another bust from JB in the making. Just wait.

I give him another 18 hours to change his mind.

#12 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:49 pm

Who are you and what do you have to offer besides a bash? The guy said it would make landfall on the US since it emerged from Africa. Unless you have something better to offer, maybe you should just ignore threads that you don't have anything constructive to add to. Seriously, many of the pro mets and serious fans laugh at the weather-weenies around here who are quick to bash (whether it be the NHC, Bastardi, local mets or whatever) but rarely offer anything in return. If I've got you figured out wrong or lumped into the wrong category, please foregive the indiscretion

.

Steve

#13 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:15 pm

Actually, a Mississippi coast landfall, while bad, would not be nearly as bad as a direct hit. We wouldn't be able to withstand a hit just west of the city. Hurricane Camille hit just east of us in Biloxi. Had hurricane Camille gone just 50-60miles more to the west, it would have gone down in history as the worst natural disaster in US history. It didn't happen because Camille went just east. I would be thrilled if it went east of here. Lake Ponchartrain would fill with water, but just think of the alternative.

#14 Postby **patsmsg** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:21 pm

I would be less thrilled...but your point is a good one.

#15 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:24 pm

calidoug wrote:LOL. Another bust from JB in the making. Just wait.

I give him another 18 hours to change his mind.

I have family in Louisiana and Alabama so I hope you
are right.

calidoug · #16 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:29 pm

"The guy said it would make landfall on the US since it emerged from Africa."

Another bold JB prediction! LOL

#17 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:41 pm

Steve wrote:He likes a Mouth of the Mississippi landfall on Wed. @ 120-140mph, gales possible to 200 miles either side of landfall and flooding int he southern Appalachains thereafter. I think Bastardi is a bit far west, but the ideas are there. He decided to take a stand and make his final call.

Steve

I think he may be forecasting an Ivan landfall in there, in the hope, whether subconsciously or not, that he'll verify bigtime on the two landfall zones he's put the highest numbers on in his updated landfall forecast. I'm in agreement with you Steve on further east...FWIW, I'm still holding firm on further E...between Mobile Bay and Appalachicola.

#18 Postby **NateFLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:50 pm

I think Bastardi is taking a big gamble.

I am having my doubts it will reach the mouth of the Mississippi....

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:53 pm

I admire his guts, but I don't see it reaching LA either. I'm going with Dauphin Island, Alabama to Panama City, Florida right now. Hoping it'll go on the east side of that so I can escape the east side when it moves inland.

#20 Postby **Novacane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:54 pm

Calidoug

Some of your posts are pretty helpful. For example the map of Cuba you just posted was valuable.

But I don't get your point here. I'd be willing to bet you a $10 donation to this weather board via PayPal that Bastardi doesn't change his call in the next 24 hours.

Are you willing to back up your bashing, or do you stand behind what you say?

Bastardi takes a stand

Bastardi takes a stand

Northerly direction

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