O'h BOY MOBIle,Biloxi,New Orleans

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mobilebay
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O'h BOY MOBIle,Biloxi,New Orleans

#1 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:19 am

so for I've looked at only two models (12Z) and it's not good. The NOGAPS is slightly est LA/MS borfer. The GFS is dead on mobile slightly west. Looks like models are coming together,
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#2 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:20 am

The models are coming together in the short term, long term they are diverging more east.
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#3 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:22 am

They aren't diverging more east...just the 12Z tropical models you see do that and they are based on the 06Z GFS. They will shift west at 18Z since the 12Z GFS made a considerable change towards the west.
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:24 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:They aren't diverging more east...just the 12Z tropical models you see do that and they are based on the 06Z GFS. They will shift west at 18Z since the 12Z GFS made a considerable change towards the west.

Correct. I've been preaching that for days. those hurricane models (BAMM,BAMD,LBAR,A98E) are biased to the GFS. They WILL go west on the next run.
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#5 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:35 am

Also, I think 72 hours is the threshold for long-term/short-term. We're getting to that.
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Re: O'h BOY MOBIle,Biloxi,New Orleans

#6 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:39 am

mobilebay wrote:so for I've looked at only two models (12Z) and it's not good. The NOGAPS is slightly est LA/MS borfer. The GFS is dead on mobile slightly west. Looks like models are coming together,


Please provide the link to the GFS model, I don't see where the 12Z has run. Thanks. 8-)
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#7 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:40 am

Watches will likely be posted at either 5PM, or 11PM EDT. I say New orleans to Destin, or there about.
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Re: O'h BOY MOBIle,Biloxi,New Orleans

#8 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:02 pm

Frederic1979 wrote:Please provide the link to the GFS model, I don't see where the 12Z has run. Thanks. 8-)



http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
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Re: O'h BOY MOBIle,Biloxi,New Orleans

#9 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:04 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
Frederic1979 wrote:Please provide the link to the GFS model, I don't see where the 12Z has run. Thanks. 8-)



http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


Like I said the 12z for GFS(AVN) has not run
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#10 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:06 pm

The 12 Z has run. It's on the NCEP Model page. It shows landfall dead on MObile.
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#11 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:08 pm

mobilebay wrote:The 12 Z has run. It's on the NCEP Model page. It shows landfall dead on MObile.


I don't doubt what you are saying, I haven't found it yet, please post your link, thanks. 8-)
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#12 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:10 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

upper right side of the page, you can compare the 06Z (on left side of page) with 12Z
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#13 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:15 pm

Frederic1979 wrote:
mobilebay wrote:The 12 Z has run. It's on the NCEP Model page. It shows landfall dead on MObile.


I don't doubt what you are saying, I haven't found it yet, please post your link, thanks. 8-)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_0661.gif
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#14 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:18 pm

Looks to me MobileBay is right, does show a sutle shift to the west about 25-30 miles I would guess from the 06Z run... you have to watch it close to see it... but he was RIGHT ON...

good job MB
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#15 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:34 pm

Given the strength and depth of the shortwave trough, and the current turn, anything W of the FL panhandle seems unlikely.

The official NHC forecast reflects this.

That could change, of course, but right now, it doesn't look like Mobile, AL will get a direct hit.
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#16 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:38 pm

don't take the bait Mobilebay. 8-)
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#17 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:38 pm

calidoug wrote:Given the strength and depth of the shortwave trough, and the current turn, anything W of the FL panhandle seems unlikely.

The official NHC forecast reflects this.

That could change, of course, but right now, it doesn't look like Mobile, AL will get a direct hit.

Your correct. I will stay in my mobile home based on your info... Thanks i needed someone to explain why all the models where left of me.
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#18 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:42 pm

A Mobile mobile home?

You could still get TS strength winds when the storm goes into the FL panhandle.

I'd head for the nearest shelter.
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#19 Postby mobilebay » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:44 pm

ALSo The new GFDL is dead into mobile bay.
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#20 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:49 pm

The models will probably start swinging east once the runs take the turn and further ridge erosion into account.

That's probably why the NHC is going along the E envelope of guidance.
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