For Ivan to make landfall near N.O. wouldn't it have to?...

[Rich83]

from where it is right now track on a bearing a lot more north than west and/or else swing around and curve toward La.?

If it's already on a NW bearing now then wouldn't they have to look east at points of possible landfall, given how storms typically swing back around rather than move on a straight line?

Wouldn't it have to get slightly past 90 deg. W to line up to make landfall in La.?

[Scorpion]

Yes, thats why I think NO is looking safer by the moment.

[Anonymous]

Right now.... If it didnt deviate from its current heading, it would landfall in the New Orleans area... But of course the track is gonna curve north and then northeast so it looks like it will be points east of New Orleans and Fla is more likely.

[WindyWx]

I agree. I live in the panhandle and got up this morning and felt a lot better that we'd escape the worst. But after watching what's unfolding on satellite, radar, etc. getting a bit more unnerved. Just can't see it going in as far west as currently projected (hopefully I'm wrong). This waiting game is a nightmare and something bad is going to come true for someone.

[x-y-no]

Right now.... If it didnt deviate from its current heading, it would landfall in the New Orleans area... But of course the track is gonna curve north and then northeast so it looks like it will be points east of New Orleans and Fla is more likely.

Uhhh ... sure looks to me like the path extrapolation is still well west of New Orleans.

[B-Bear]

But the problem is that Ivan may not recurve. There have been 18 landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. which were cat 4 or higher. Only 1 of those storms--Charely--was tracking east. Granted, statisitcs are only so useful as they do not take the present synoptic variables into consideration. But such a monumental slant might be indicative. Just because many storms recurve doesn't mean Ivan will. Is there perhaps a tendency for the most powerful storms to not recurve? Do they somehow become less susceptible to the coreolis effect? I'd be interested in seeing some studies regarding those questions.

[calidoug]

Ivan is currently pulling about 330-335. I wouldn't be surprised, given the WV loop, to see the storm heading due N in another 6 hours.

[Lockhart]

Boy, that should make some huge changes in the models if that happens. They have it going *so* far West. I can't wait to see those runs if Ivan turns North now.