Ivan: First Hints of a More Northward Movement?

[Stormcenter]

The 2 pm data found Ivan at 20.9N 84.7W.

Based on this data, I am now strongly confident that Ivan has indeed made the turn more to the north. Moreover, if one examines Ivan's track over 12-hour periods, the turn more to the north is both unmistakable and increasing:

Ivan's Track:

12-Hour Periods Ended:
9/12 12z: 283°
9/12 18z: 291°
9/13 0z: 290°
9/13 3z: 289°
9/13 6z: 293° (Start of the Turn)
9/13 9z: 299°
9/13 12z: 301°
9/13 15z: 306°

Overall, I expect Ivan to be tracking at or above 315° either later today or very early tomorrow. The gradual turn to the north should be continuing.

You obviously must know more than the NHC?
By the way what is your reasoning behind this?

Click on the link below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[CaptinCrunch]

Ivan is a BIG STRONG Storm, and I think Ivan will push his way to the N-NW even with a slight shear and weak ridge and anything else you can through at it.

Ivan could be that storm of the decade?

[mf_dolphin]

Stormcenter, it is obviously moving NW now. I don't know why you seem to challenge people so negatively. 315 would be NW exactly which is just about what the NHC said should happen.

[NateFLA]

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

Right from the 2pm Public Adv.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1738.shtml?

I see NW too...

[caneman]

Stormcenter, it is obviously moving NW now. I don't know why you seem to challenge people so negatively. 315 would be NW exactly which is just about what the NHC said should happen.

Yes, it has been and yes he does it frequently. He seems like he wants a Cat. 4 or 5 coming his way. No way for me a Cat. 1 or 2 is enough.

[donsutherland1]

Stormcenter,

A few points:

1) The last part of the track should read:

9/13 12z: 301°
9/13 15z: 304°
9/13 18z: 308°

2) The NHC has the foremost experts in the field. There is no comparison whatsoever.

3) I just calculated using the latest TPC track. From 9/13 15z to 9/14 0z position, TPC has Ivan tracking at exactly 315°:

9/13 15z: 20.6N 84.4W
9/14 0z: 21.5N 85.3W

4) There is also no disagreement about the continuation of the turn more to the north tomorrow.

TPC Track:

From 9/14 0z to 9/14 12z: 328°
From 9/14 12z to 9/15 0z: 340°

TPC Track:
forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/1500z 20.6n 84.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 21.5n 85.3w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 23.2n 86.5w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0000z 25.2n 87.4w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1200z 27.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1200z 31.0n 86.5w 100 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1200z 34.0n 84.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1200z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland

[NateFLA]

I just read a very interesting article in the newspaper today about the NHC and Avila and all the equipment they have... they easily outrank anyone (here) in equipment and a collection of very bright mets.... I think they know their stuff.... and if the NHC says something, it’s because there are grounds to back it up...

[donsutherland1]

NateFLA,

No disagreement from me about the NHC's excellence. It is truly outstanding.

[Nimbus]

Ivan has rolled around more toward the NW this morning but if the ridge to Ivans north has time to build in again that trend may not continue. Living here on the west coast of Florida after Charley, it is difficult to watch a major hurricane wobble by without worrying about an early recurve.