NE Precursor?

Sanibel · #1 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 pm

Not to suggest anything incorrect, but I think a new discussion needs to be made on this present motion. If I'm seeing this correctly the present movement is slightly more right of track and a clip of the west tip of Cuba is happening. I can only think this makes a slightly right track more possible.

Looking at the WV loop of the north Gulf coast we see the trough isn't really plunging, but slightly pulsing south in towards the Gulf as it moves slowly east. I believe it is plunging slightly more than the loop shows because Ivan's outer edge is concealing the actual penetration. I don't have a firm read on this as far as track.

The reason I made this topic post is because Ivan's veer towards the west tip of Cuba is a sign that the trough edge is firmer than realized and a NE hook must be left open to possibility. The storm's shape and slow movement are also typical warning signs of possible right deviation.

I faired pretty poorly with synoptics and Frances. Truth is this trough isn't plunging probably because it has been summer-weakened by the continental airmass. If so NHC makes perfect sense.

Personally, this clip of Cuba sets off my warning signs for a possible sharper turn...

Sanibel · #2 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:10 pm

Furthermore, it looks like the outlfow along the NE edge of that trough is now starting to grab and boost Ivan as he enters its domain. Just like Charley. That's all we need! Ivan goes from a NE venting by a ULL to NE venting by a trough just when he passes over into the Gulf. Oh boy.

A slow-moving storm is more likely to track right as NHC has already commented in their 11am report...

#3 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:11 pm

Sanibel wrote:Furthermore, it looks like the outlfow along the NE edge of that trough is now starting to grab and boost Ivan as he enters its domain. Just like Charley. That's all we need! Ivan goes from a NE venting by a ULL to NE venting by a trough just when he passes over into the Gulf. Oh boy.

A slow-moving storm is more likely to track right as NHC has already commented in their 11am report...

I agree!!

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:12 pm

000
FXUS62 KTBW 131800
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SHORT TERM (TON-WED)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM WILL
TRACK NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. W/V
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED U/L TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL HELP
TURN HURRICANE IVAN NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT TRACK
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS IVAN 250 TO 300 MILES WEST
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. IVAN IS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD PUT THE REGION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
STORM. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...WOULD EXPECT THE OUTER BANDS OF
IVAN TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA LATE TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL
FA ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TIDES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY. AS IVAN NEARS LANDFALL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
TIDES COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE CEDAR KEY AREA.

BUT AS LONG AS IVAN REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR LATITUDE IT REMAINS A
THREAT TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALL AREAS MUST REMAIN
ALERT TO ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS IT WOULD HAVE
A DIRECT EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. IF THE STORM TRACKS 100 MILES EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT
PROJECTED TRACK...IT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...IVANS EFFECTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
MAINLY OVER GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING SOUTH THURSDAY. A COMBINATION OF
THE LARGE SWELLS GENERATED AND THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
RESULTANT EKMAN FLOW TOWARD THE COAST WILL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND PERHAPS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. AFTER THE BRUSH WITH IVAN AND TRAILING MOISTURE
BANDS... A RETURN TO NORMAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WITH POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN FCST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IVAN MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DAMAGING WAVE ACTION. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NHC FOR HURRICANE IVAN.
THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WET AND BREEZY WITH DISPERSION INDICES INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY.

&&

TPA 76 85 77 86 / 80 70 70 50
FMY 76 85 76 87 / 80 70 70 50
GIF 74 87 75 87 / 80 30 70 50
SRQ 75 85 76 85 / 80 70 70 50
BKV 75 87 76 85 / 80 70 70 70

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT TO 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

EO/CP

#5 Postby **sponger** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:12 pm

I know its only one loop but that looks like due north to me. I know we will hear all about the wobbles, but I am nervous! 6 more wobbles and all hell breaks loose!

#6 Postby **sponger** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:12 pm

I know its only one loop but that looks like due north to me. I know we will hear all about the wobbles, but I am nervous! 6 more wobbles and all hell breaks loose!

tallywx · #7 Postby **tallywx** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:13 pm

Also notice the slight jog to the north and east on last two recon. fixes...the storm actually LOST 3 minutes of longitude from the last fix, with a gain of 4 minutes latitude.

wxwatcher2 · #8 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:14 pm

I don't know Sanibel but it has caught my attention as well and I'm watching it closely. I'm in central Fla.
The visable loops still show Ivan on a NW track while the divorac and IR shots seem to hint at a more Northerly track.
I too am concerned at a slight nudge East will bring Tropical storm weather over the peninsula but you have to believe the NHC.

Ivan is a huge storm....

Scorpion · #9 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:14 pm

Yea I noticed that too. Looks like a pretty big jog to the North.

NorthGaWeather · #10 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:14 pm

I quess we are trying to find all things possible that will send this to Tampa or Charlotte Harbor. Dream on people.

Weatherboy1 · #11 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm

Basically, I still view the NHC track as the most likely. But the fact is, historically, storms tend to start being steered when they're within 10 degrees of a trough and really get turned when they're around 8 degrees away. Ivan is around 21N and the base of this trough (using WV imagery as a guide) appears to be around 28/29N. The ULL to which this trough is attached appears to have slowed its eastward progress and is forecast to eject NE from what I've read. But I don't believe it's going to happen quickly enough for the SW Atlantic ridge to link up with the Texas ridge. Judging from this, Ivan's cloud pattern and other forces, I believe the risk of a landfall further east is there. Not SW or SE FL, that's for sure. This isn't a deep enough trough to create that kind of hook NE or ENE. But I think the Big Bend isn't out of the question, and I currently am not buying the solution of this going all the way to New Orleans unless that ULL gets out of there very quickly, which would allow the ridge to rebuild.

tallywx · #12 Postby **tallywx** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm

Or, we could be trying to find all things possible to keep this away from New Orleans. If you're going to force the cup to be half empty, at least it can also be half full.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:17 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:I quess we are trying to find all things possible that will send this to Tampa or Charlotte Harbor. Dream on people.

I highly doubt anyone with a brain wants this cane :roll:

get real please :eek:

NorthGaWeather · #14 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:22 pm

Rainband wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:I quess we are trying to find all things possible that will send this to Tampa or Charlotte Harbor. Dream on people.
I highly doubt anyone with a brain wants this cane get real please

The only person that needs to see the light is you.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:23 pm

I agree and although the NHC seems convident this is a Western Panhandle threat, it looks to be making the turn--to me anyway

Lockhart · #16 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:24 pm

Boy, NorthGA, you sure are slinging insults left and right. Why so nasty?

calidoug · #17 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:27 pm

Yeah, screaming at a moderator is a good way to get banned.

Why is NorthGA opposed to any N movement to the extent of denying visual reality? I don't get it.

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:29 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
Rainband wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:I quess we are trying to find all things possible that will send this to Tampa or Charlotte Harbor. Dream on people.
I highly doubt anyone with a brain wants this cane get real please

The only person that needs to see the light is you.

the door is what you will be seeing

Scorpion · #19 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:31 pm

Lol. Dissing a moderator? Nice one NorthGa.

NorthGaWeather · #20 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:32 pm

Lockhart wrote:Boy, NorthGA, you sure are slinging insults left and right. Why so nasty?

I'm not slinging insults. Cali and you have slung many my way in the past few days but whenever you say something back to you, your suddenly the victim. I'm not responding to this thread anymore and I've let you both get on my nerves too many times.

NE Precursor?

NE Precursor?

I've commented on this in other posts myself...

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