Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

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calidoug
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Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

#1 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

compare 1745Z to 1815Z
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GalvestonDuck
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#2 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:53 pm

EDIT - :)
Last edited by GalvestonDuck on Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ericinmia
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:55 pm

I didn't check it 4 hours ago but right now the storm is heading a little above 315. Probably around 320-330 which is north of NW, but not quite NNW.
-Eric
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Stormcenter
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Re: Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:56 pm

calidoug wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

compare 1745Z to 1815Z


As much as you may want it to it's not happening,
at least not yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Lockhart
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#5 Postby Lockhart » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:07 pm

I don't know why you are rudely suggesting calidoug has an agenda in mentioning movement, but a cursory glance at the most recent satellite photos shows almost completely Northward movement.
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JQ Public
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#6 Postby JQ Public » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:11 pm

Ivan sure looks like he has much more of a northerly component than westerly. Recurvature may come a little earlier?
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NorthGaWeather

#7 Postby NorthGaWeather » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:12 pm

Calidoug again what your seeing isn't happening. Oh whats that the next frame shows NE motion.
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#8 Postby ixl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:13 pm

The bulk of Ivan's convection is currently south of the eye. As it swings around to the east side, Ivan will wobble back to the west... just watch.
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#9 Postby tallywx » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:14 pm

Also notice the slight jog to the north and east on last two recon. fixes...the storm actually LOST 3 minutes of longitude from the last fix, with a gain of 4 minutes latitude. A wobble no doubt, but the storm hasn't wobbled in this direction for a while.
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#10 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:15 pm

NorthGa, this time, with Ivan just E of the 85W line, even you should be able to spot the due N movement. Notice that the eye is not getting closer to that 85W line as it moves N... gosh, that means DUE N.

And look at the outflow and overall CDO.

This is looking more and more like a South Florida to Central Florida event.
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Sanibel
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#11 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm

These assinine comments in response to an otherwise sharp observation is exactly why the administration made the warning these people are in direct violation of above. They probably didn't even read it. I couldn't access the site for 5 minutes while these people were enjoying site time for violating the rules. Meanwhile a category 5 killer could be coming closer to me.


I agree Calidoug and it looks like a trend. I posted on it below in detail. What's even worse is this category 5 looks like the trough could be offering to vent it NE along its edge like Charley...
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby ALhurricane » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm

Ivan is feeling the trough to the north...hence the more north motion.

Keep in mind...the trough will pass Ivan by to the east tonight...when a more NW motion will likely commence.

No doubt it is feeling the trough right now, but the trough won't be around forever.
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ixl
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#13 Postby ixl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:16 pm

I think that's a bit premature based on a couple of frames, Doug.
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#14 Postby wxwatcher2 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:17 pm

Keeping us on our toes now isn't it !!!

Ivan my yet surprise us. That's why we're glued to our puters.
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#15 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:18 pm

ALhurricane, none of the models show a bend *back* to the W.

With no ridging NE of the storm, the natural tendency to continue recurving NE should dominate.
Last edited by calidoug on Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Lockhart
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#16 Postby Lockhart » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:18 pm

You think what's premature, ixl? He said "Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting." It actually has gone a little East of North, and it is interesting. :-)
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#17 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:19 pm

NorthGaWeather, we'll see, won't we?
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#18 Postby ixl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:19 pm

BTW.. check the path of Camille... she turned almost due north in this exact area, then changed her mind and went, well.. you know where.
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#19 Postby BReb » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:19 pm

Looks NNW to me.
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#20 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:20 pm

NorthGA, I dont see what your problem is. People are simply getting concerned about the sudden N movement. I for one am watching this a little bit more, since the more closer it is to the coast, the more weather I get.
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