Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

calidoug · #21 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:20 pm

Lockhart, thank you. Some people have reading comprehension issues.

chris_fit · #22 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:20 pm

i really hope this is not what i have been forecasting..

:-/

Windtalker · #23 Postby **Windtalker** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:21 pm

North through Cuba Than NorthEast & East...Where that northeast to east movement happens nobody knows...IMO, I think this still could be a Central to North Florida event not the panhandle.

calidoug · #24 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:21 pm

ixl, old storm tracks aren't very useful, because the surrounding environments were different.

#25 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:22 pm

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Even when they are wrong.

calidoug · #26 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:24 pm

It's crazy they let people back to the Keys earlier today... they may well reverse that by nightfall.

Nuclear_Cane · #27 Postby **Nuclear_Cane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:24 pm

Forget the satellite pics. Recon fixes since 0831Z today shows movement of 315 degrees or NW vs. the NNW movement (290-300) up to 0800Z today. No wobble here.
I'm not saying that any "turn" is occurring, however there is a definite change in IVAN's direction which we should not ignore or simply dismiss as a wobble.

mf_dolphin · #28 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:25 pm

I think everyone better take a deep breath here. I deleted one post.... Those that insist on aluding to people I disagree with are in jeopardy of losing their posting privileges. We just don't want or need those comments here.....

Ivan has us west coasters on edge even though I don't see him getting back this far east again before landfall. That being said I won't stop watching him until he's safely north of Tampa....

kevin · #29 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:26 pm

This is a troubling trend. The motion is pretty obvious. While this is happening later than inititally expected by the NHC, and could be a jog.. people along the west coast of Florida are probably paying more attention this afternoon.

NorthGaWeather · #30 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:NorthGA, I dont see what your problem is. People are simply getting concerned about the sudden N movement. I for one am watching this a little bit more, since the more closer it is to the coast, the more weather I get.

You obviously haven't been in several of the arguments with cali before where he claims one thing and something else is the real deal. Its not a sudden N movement a more northward motion has been expected for days, this shouldn't catch you off guard.

calidoug · #31 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:31 pm

"more northward motion has been expected for days, this shouldn't catch you off guard."

PTL! You can see the N movement this time?

BTW, due N motion was not called for today, as of the 11AM NHC adv...

chris_fit · #32 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:34 pm

next frame due north as well. N.O. looking better by the minute.

I believe once it goes north it will not go back to the west.

calidoug · #33 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:35 pm

Yep, 1915Z continues DUE N!

Get those poeple out of the Keys!

MetroMike · #34 Postby **MetroMike** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:35 pm

To back you up more calidoug. If one puts the forcast pointa over the sat. pic it is plain to see that Ivan has gone off the current track to the right or east. Thats something that has not happened recently.

ixl · #35 Postby **ixl** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:36 pm

I realize every storm is different, but folks seem to mostly be thinking that once the storm turns N it cannot turn back to the NW... it can (and in fact it has done it before.)

Lockhart · #36 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:38 pm

Yes, it's nice to see people acknowledge the obvious. The true meaning of this apparent turn will become clear over the next few hours.

calidoug · #37 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:38 pm

Yeah, the 85W longitude line is very helpful to some of our friends who have difficulty seeing N movement. :roflmao:

chris_fit · #38 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:38 pm

ixl:

Very unlikely with these weak stearing currents.

Storm always want to recurve to the NW, then N, then NE in the notherrn Hemisphere

kevin · #39 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:39 pm

Yes, on an ir floater loop you can overlay the projected path, and this is on the eastern margin. So what one might ask, its only a little? Because this motion wasn't expected till three more degrees west, and also because, its riding the eastern edge of the cone...

calidoug · #40 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:40 pm

ixl, storms tend to recurve, in the absence of a strong ridge to the N or NE, especially once they are approaching 20N and moving N...

And in this case, there doesn't look to be a strong ridge building to the NE....

Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

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