Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

#41 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:40 pm

Every time it moves to the west..... it's just a jog to the west.

But when it moves to the north.... It's north!

That is not a true statement. I'm starting to get aggrivated by coming to these boards. They were tolerable for Charley and Frances. It's just getting plain stupid around here.

Guest · #42 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:42 pm

Dog you might have something here.

c5Camille · #43 Postby **c5Camille** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:43 pm

if it's moving due north... how come it's getting
closer and closer to 85 degrees every single frame.

rsm · #44 Postby **rsm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:45 pm

Didn't Frances curve northward, stall, then GO WEST? Saying that this is happening right now (the N, the NE movmnt) is a litlle presumptuous.

Guest · #45 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:45 pm

This could be Tampa doomsday scenario some were talking about last Feb. Probally not I hope.

chris_fit · #46 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:46 pm

c5Camille wrote:if it's moving due north... how come it's getting
closer and closer to 85 degrees every single frame.

Last 3 frames it has not gotten closer closer to 85.

RichG · #47 Postby **RichG** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:47 pm

I would have to say if you look at the projected path on the IR it will have to do a pretty good left turn to make the next point. Also it is running parallel to the 85 longitude.

calidoug · #48 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:47 pm

rsm, completely different environment from Frances.

That was actually a very unusual event for where Frances was, to be surrounded by ridging on 3 sides.

In the absence of strong ridging to the N an NE, the typical right turn is to be expected.

Lockhart · #49 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:47 pm

Notice that the thread is a comment about the *current*, most recent movement, not a statement of absolute certainty predicting future movement. If you want to argue (with reasons would be nice) why you think the current movement will not continue, please do. Attacking people over what they haven't said accomplishes nothing.

mf_dolphin · #50 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:48 pm

Even though the movement has been more to the north than yesterday I don't see it as being anything other than NW or maybe NNW. Let's see what the position looks like at 11PM before we go jumping the gun. :-)

ixl · #51 Postby **ixl** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:48 pm

What do you mean, Lockhart?

#52 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:49 pm

Not to fan the flames of this fire...but I will.

The last 3 recon reports...converted to decimal are:

1704Z...20.8N...84.6N
1747Z...20.9N...84.7N
1906Z...21.0N...84.6N

This is MOST LIKELY a wobble...it is really only 2 hours of motion. Chances of Ivan getting picked up by this trough are very small. If we continue to see this movement over the next 4 to 6 hours then major track adjustments will be necessary...but for now it's just yet another thing to watch.

MW

chris_fit · #53 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:51 pm

Well said MW

This frame coming up better be farther west :-P

RichG · #54 Postby **RichG** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:51 pm

MF-Dolphin with all due respect I do not think anybody is "jumping the gun" I think there is relevant observation by someone. Anybody is free to disagree however I think it should be discussed. Thanks

miamijaaz · #55 Postby **miamijaaz** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:51 pm

MWatkins wrote:Not to fan the flames of this fire...but I will.

The last 3 recon reports...converted to decimal are:

1704Z...20.8N...84.6N
1747Z...20.9N...84.7N
1906Z...21.0N...84.6N

This is MOST LIKELY a wobble...it is really only 2 hours of motion. Chances of Ivan getting picked up by this trough are very small. If we continue to see this movement over the next 4 to 6 hours then major track adjustments will be necessary...but for now it's just yet another thing to watch.

MW

I think you mean to say W in your 80sh coordinates. By the way, I agree wholeheartedly.

ixl · #56 Postby **ixl** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:52 pm

And in this case, there doesn't look to be a strong ridge building to the NE....

Several of the models disagree, at least in part. We'll see...

Lockhart · #57 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:54 pm

ixl: I mean people who say things like Calidoug is "wi*********" the storm somewhere (California??) or sarcastic comments about any Northward movement being a trend when Westward movement is a wobble. Ivan's been going very much West for a long time--any Northward (or NWward) movement is noteworthy, and I see no reason to attack someone for mentioning it.

It does look nasty for North Florida, though, IMO.

#58 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:55 pm

MWatkins wrote:Not to fan the flames of this fire...but I will.

The last 3 recon reports...converted to decimal are:

1704Z...20.8N...84.6N
1747Z...20.9N...84.7N
1906Z...21.0N...84.6N

This is MOST LIKELY a wobble...it is really only 2 hours of motion. Chances of Ivan getting picked up by this trough are very small. If we continue to see this movement over the next 4 to 6 hours then major track adjustments will be necessary...but for now it's just yet another thing to watch.

MW

Good post Mike. What are the chances of Ivan weakening significantly (100 mph or less) before landfall? I sure worry for the folks in Fl. Al,MS,
& SE. LA.

Wannabewxman79 · #59 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:57 pm

It does look to have a mostly northerly component the last couple of frames but like MW said, if it keeps moving this way until 11 pm or 5 am then West Coast Floridians may have to get worried again.

ixl · #60 Postby **ixl** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:57 pm

Lockhart, I agree about the attacking and childishness. What I was wondering really was what you meant by this: " The true meaning of this apparent turn will become clear over the next few hours." But I guess you are just saying let's wait and see (and I agree with that.) --c

Due N last couple frames? This could get interesting...

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