Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...New tropical depression forms east of the Leeward Islands...
...Watches and warnings issued for the northern Lesser Antilles...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
At 5 PM AST...the government of Antigua has issued a tropical storm
watch for the British Virgin Islands.
At 5 PM AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued
a tropical storm watch for Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 5 PM AST...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Depression
Eleven was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 60.4 west
or about 70 miles... 110 km...east-southeast of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to
maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Locally
higher winds...possibly to tropical storm strength...can be
expected over higher terrain.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...16.0 N... 60.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
Post New Advisories and Discussions Here
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-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 46
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
...Eyewall of extremely dangerous category 5 Ivan near the
western tip of Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later tonight.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles...
45 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning. On this track...the eye of the hurricane
will pass over or near the western tip of Cuba in a few hours.
Maximum sustained winds reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft remain near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 220 miles...350 km. During the past few hours...ham radio
operators have reported wind gusts above 70 mph with trees and
powerlines down in the Pinar del Rio province of western Cuba.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunters was 912 mb...26.93 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...21.3 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 912 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
...Eyewall of extremely dangerous category 5 Ivan near the
western tip of Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later tonight.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles...
45 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning. On this track...the eye of the hurricane
will pass over or near the western tip of Cuba in a few hours.
Maximum sustained winds reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft remain near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 220 miles...350 km. During the past few hours...ham radio
operators have reported wind gusts above 70 mph with trees and
powerlines down in the Pinar del Rio province of western Cuba.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunters was 912 mb...26.93 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall...if it does make landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...21.3 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 912 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles along with satellite
images show a broad circulation with sufficiently organized deep
convection to warrant the initiation of advisories. There is
pronounced upper-level divergence over the system...which should
lead to intensification of the tropical cyclone. Gradual
strengthening is forecast...however an upper-level trough in the
path of the depression could inhibit intensification somewhat.
The tropical cyclone is moving at an estimated 290/10. A
mid-tropospheric high pressure system between the depression and
Hurricane Ivan is forecast by most numerical guidance to persist
with an associated NE-SW oriented ridge over the southwest North
Atlantic. This scenario could cause a more westward motion to
develop late in the forecast period. The official forecast track
is similar to the dynamical model consensus.
Forecaster Pasch/Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/2100z 16.0n 60.4w 25 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 16.7n 62.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 17.5n 64.2w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 18.4n 66.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 19.4n 68.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 21.4n 71.3w 60 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 23.0n 73.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 18/1800z 24.0n 74.5w 60 kt
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles along with satellite
images show a broad circulation with sufficiently organized deep
convection to warrant the initiation of advisories. There is
pronounced upper-level divergence over the system...which should
lead to intensification of the tropical cyclone. Gradual
strengthening is forecast...however an upper-level trough in the
path of the depression could inhibit intensification somewhat.
The tropical cyclone is moving at an estimated 290/10. A
mid-tropospheric high pressure system between the depression and
Hurricane Ivan is forecast by most numerical guidance to persist
with an associated NE-SW oriented ridge over the southwest North
Atlantic. This scenario could cause a more westward motion to
develop late in the forecast period. The official forecast track
is similar to the dynamical model consensus.
Forecaster Pasch/Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/2100z 16.0n 60.4w 25 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 16.7n 62.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 17.5n 64.2w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 18.4n 66.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 19.4n 68.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 21.4n 71.3w 60 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 23.0n 73.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 18/1800z 24.0n 74.5w 60 kt
0 likes
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 46
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
the initial motion is 330/08. The last few recon fixes indicate that
Ivan has made a slight turn to right...or to the north-northwest.
This motion has likely been induced by a combination of impinging
upper-level northwesterly flow and the mid-level trough over the
north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico causing the ridge to
the north of Ivan to weaken. However...the trough is forecast to
slowly lift out northeastward...allowing the ridge to build back
westward in about 12hr. This is expected to nudge Ivan back to a
more northwestward motion. Afterwards...a second trough over the
U.S. West Coast is forecast to move quickly eastward and erode the
ridge again over the central Gulf. The erosion of the ridge...
combined with increasing west to southwesterly mid- to upper-level
flow over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by 48 hours should turn
Ivan northward and then northeastward as the hurricane approaches
the northern Gulf Coast. The UKMET and Canadian models have made a
large swing to the east from the 13/00z model run. Only the NOGAPS
model takes Ivan over New Orleans and this appears to be due to the
model creating too large of a mid-level circulation...which in turn
induces a stronger ridge to the north that helps to keep Ivan
moving north-northwestward throughout the forecast period. The
NOGAPS solution is not being considered at this time. The official
forecast track is close to the previous track and remains near the
extreme eastern portion of the NHC model guidance envelope...and a
little to the right of GFS track which is already to the left of
the current position and recent motion of Ivan.
The plethora of recon reports today indicate that Ivan has
maintained category 5 intensity of about 140 kt. Despite the large
eye of 25-30 nmi...the pressure has continued to fall. Since the
public advisory was issued...the pressure has dropped to 910 mb as
measured by a dropsonde. Since the eye remains quite distinct as
noted in both visible and infrared satellite imagery...some
additional slight strengthening of 5 kt or so could occur later
tonight. By 24 hours or so...increasing northwesterly 300 mb shear
may disrupt the inner core convection and bring about some slow
weakening. In the longer term...more significant west to
southwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect Ivan as it nears
landfall. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane of
at least 100 kt at its U.S. Landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/2100z 21.3n 84.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 22.7n 85.7w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 86.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 26.1n 87.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 28.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 31.5n 86.7w 90 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1800z 34.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1800z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
the initial motion is 330/08. The last few recon fixes indicate that
Ivan has made a slight turn to right...or to the north-northwest.
This motion has likely been induced by a combination of impinging
upper-level northwesterly flow and the mid-level trough over the
north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico causing the ridge to
the north of Ivan to weaken. However...the trough is forecast to
slowly lift out northeastward...allowing the ridge to build back
westward in about 12hr. This is expected to nudge Ivan back to a
more northwestward motion. Afterwards...a second trough over the
U.S. West Coast is forecast to move quickly eastward and erode the
ridge again over the central Gulf. The erosion of the ridge...
combined with increasing west to southwesterly mid- to upper-level
flow over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by 48 hours should turn
Ivan northward and then northeastward as the hurricane approaches
the northern Gulf Coast. The UKMET and Canadian models have made a
large swing to the east from the 13/00z model run. Only the NOGAPS
model takes Ivan over New Orleans and this appears to be due to the
model creating too large of a mid-level circulation...which in turn
induces a stronger ridge to the north that helps to keep Ivan
moving north-northwestward throughout the forecast period. The
NOGAPS solution is not being considered at this time. The official
forecast track is close to the previous track and remains near the
extreme eastern portion of the NHC model guidance envelope...and a
little to the right of GFS track which is already to the left of
the current position and recent motion of Ivan.
The plethora of recon reports today indicate that Ivan has
maintained category 5 intensity of about 140 kt. Despite the large
eye of 25-30 nmi...the pressure has continued to fall. Since the
public advisory was issued...the pressure has dropped to 910 mb as
measured by a dropsonde. Since the eye remains quite distinct as
noted in both visible and infrared satellite imagery...some
additional slight strengthening of 5 kt or so could occur later
tonight. By 24 hours or so...increasing northwesterly 300 mb shear
may disrupt the inner core convection and bring about some slow
weakening. In the longer term...more significant west to
southwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect Ivan as it nears
landfall. Regardless...Ivan is forecast to be a major hurricane of
at least 100 kt at its U.S. Landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/2100z 21.3n 84.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 22.7n 85.7w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 86.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 26.1n 87.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 28.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 31.5n 86.7w 90 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1800z 34.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1800z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland
0 likes
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 46a
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan hitting extreme western Cuba
hard...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later tonight.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.6 north...longitude 85.1 west or very near the western
tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning. On this track...the hurricane will
be moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and
early on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 220 miles...350 km. At 715 PM EDT...sandino meteorological
station in Pinar del Rio reported sustained winds of 124 mph with
gusts to 162 mph.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunters was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected over portions of the South Coast of extreme
western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...21.6 N... 85.1 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 914 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan hitting extreme western Cuba
hard...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later tonight.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.6 north...longitude 85.1 west or very near the western
tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning. On this track...the hurricane will
be moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and
early on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 220 miles...350 km. At 715 PM EDT...sandino meteorological
station in Pinar del Rio reported sustained winds of 124 mph with
gusts to 162 mph.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunters was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected over portions of the South Coast of extreme
western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along
the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...21.6 N... 85.1 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 914 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Eleven Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Poorly organized depression near the Leeward Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saba...St. Eustatius...and
St. Marteen...and for the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eleven was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude
60.8 west or very near Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over or
near the northern Leeward Islands later tonight and early on
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Locally
higher winds...possibly to tropical storm strength...can be
expected over higher terrain.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...16.0 N... 60.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Poorly organized depression near the Leeward Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saba...St. Eustatius...and
St. Marteen...and for the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eleven was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude
60.8 west or very near Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over or
near the northern Leeward Islands later tonight and early on
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Locally
higher winds...possibly to tropical storm strength...can be
expected over higher terrain.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...16.0 N... 60.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM.
115 miles out for hurricane force winds???
0 likes
-
Ripopgodazippa
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 74
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 10:03 pm
- Location: Tallahassee
WTNT34 KNHC 140233
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 140231
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
A SHORT TIME AGO...THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE READINGS FROM
BOTH THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB A FEW
HOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN WAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...
AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE CORE INTERACTED WITH LAND
TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER
IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED
STATES COAST.
IVAN WOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS JUST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...
325/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE HURRICANE IS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.
THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN WE EMPHASIZE THAT...DUE TO FORECAST
ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE
EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT
RISK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 22.0N 85.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 23.1N 86.2W 140 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 24.8N 87.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 88.2W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 83.5W 20 KT...INLAND
$$WWWW
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$WWWW
WTNT44 KNHC 140231
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
A SHORT TIME AGO...THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE READINGS FROM
BOTH THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB A FEW
HOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN WAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...
AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE CORE INTERACTED WITH LAND
TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER
IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED
STATES COAST.
IVAN WOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS JUST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...
325/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE HURRICANE IS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.
THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AT THIS TIME. ONCE AGAIN WE EMPHASIZE THAT...DUE TO FORECAST
ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE
EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT
RISK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 22.0N 85.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 23.1N 86.2W 140 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 24.8N 87.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 88.2W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 83.5W 20 KT...INLAND
$$WWWW
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Tropical Depression Eleven passing through the Leeward Islands...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin
Islands... Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was
located near latitude 16.2 north... longitude 61.2 west or about 15
miles... 25 km... east-southeast of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...16.2 N... 61.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen
----------------------------------------
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
surface observations from the Lesser Antilles indicate that TD-11
still has a broad circulation with light winds. Satellite images
show deep convection around the circulation center and UW CIMSS
analyzed satellite winds show 5 to 10 knots of WNW shear on the
system. The SHIPS model forecasts gradual strengthening throughout
the forecast period even though an upper trough is forecast to
produce 20 to 25 knots of shear at 60-72 hour. The shear is
forecast to decrease after this time and the system should continue
to strengthen. The official forecast closely follows the ships
scenario.
The initial motion is 290/10. TD-11 is moving on the south side of a
large mid-Atlantic ridge. A portion of this same ridge is wedged
between the depression and Hurricane Ivan and is forecast by most
numerical guidance to persist throughout the forecast period. This
scenario should cause the system to slow down after about 36 to 48
hours and then turn toward the NW as the ridge is weakened by Ivan.
Forecaster Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0300z 16.2n 61.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 16.7n 62.6w 30 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 17.5n 64.6w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 18.4n 66.3w 45 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 19.3n 67.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 21.0n 69.6w 60 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 22.7n 71.3w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 24.8n 73.0w 70 kt
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Tropical Depression Eleven passing through the Leeward Islands...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin
Islands... Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was
located near latitude 16.2 north... longitude 61.2 west or about 15
miles... 25 km... east-southeast of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...16.2 N... 61.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen
----------------------------------------
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004
surface observations from the Lesser Antilles indicate that TD-11
still has a broad circulation with light winds. Satellite images
show deep convection around the circulation center and UW CIMSS
analyzed satellite winds show 5 to 10 knots of WNW shear on the
system. The SHIPS model forecasts gradual strengthening throughout
the forecast period even though an upper trough is forecast to
produce 20 to 25 knots of shear at 60-72 hour. The shear is
forecast to decrease after this time and the system should continue
to strengthen. The official forecast closely follows the ships
scenario.
The initial motion is 290/10. TD-11 is moving on the south side of a
large mid-Atlantic ridge. A portion of this same ridge is wedged
between the depression and Hurricane Ivan and is forecast by most
numerical guidance to persist throughout the forecast period. This
scenario should cause the system to slow down after about 36 to 48
hours and then turn toward the NW as the ridge is weakened by Ivan.
Forecaster Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0300z 16.2n 61.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 16.7n 62.6w 30 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 17.5n 64.6w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 18.4n 66.3w 45 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 19.3n 67.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 21.0n 69.6w 60 kt
96hr VT 18/0000z 22.7n 71.3w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/0000z 24.8n 73.0w 70 kt
0 likes
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Depression Eleven Intermediate Advisory Number 2a
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 14, 2004
...Tropical Depression Eleven passing through the Leeward Islands...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin
Islands... Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the very broad center of Tropical Depression
Eleven was located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 61.8 west
or near the northwest tip of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...16.3 N... 61.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 14, 2004
...Tropical Depression Eleven passing through the Leeward Islands...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the British Virgin
Islands... Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the very broad center of Tropical Depression
Eleven was located near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 61.8 west
or near the northwest tip of Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...16.3 N... 61.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen
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The new vortex is finally out!!!!!!!!!
URNT12 KNHC 140547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/0547Z
B. 22 DEG 19 MIN N
85 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2421 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 088 DEG 134 KT
G. 349 DEG 15 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 10 C/ 3090 M
J. 18 C/ 3066 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 3209A IVAN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 134 KT N QUAD 0542Z.
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Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 48
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just went through the eye of Ivan and
measured a pressure of 924 mb with a drop and estimated 920 mb by
extrapolation. Max flight level winds so far are 142 knots and with
the pressure rising...the initial intensity may be little lower.
Because the plane has not sampled the entire circulation yet...we
will keep the winds at 140 knots at this time. Satellite images
continue to show a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold
convective tops. Some weakening is forecast as Ivan moves farther
north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days...and encounters some westerly shear. However...Ivan should
still be a major hurricane when it reaches the United States coast.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 knots. There
has been no significant change in the steering which continues to
be controlled by a subtropical ridge centered over the western
Atlantic. Ivan is forecast to gradually turn northward around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge with no significant change in
speed before landfall. This is consistent with guidance which
brings the hurricane near the north central Gulf Coast in about 48
hours. Once inland...the guidance slows down a weakened Ivan over
the southeastern United States. This could produce another
significant rain event in that area.
Note: due to forecast errors...one should not focus on the exact
track as the eventual landfall point. The entire Hurricane Watch
area is at risk.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 22.6n 86.0w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/1800z 24.0n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/1800z 28.0n 88.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 88.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 86.5w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/0600z 35.5n 84.5w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0600z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
$$
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just went through the eye of Ivan and
measured a pressure of 924 mb with a drop and estimated 920 mb by
extrapolation. Max flight level winds so far are 142 knots and with
the pressure rising...the initial intensity may be little lower.
Because the plane has not sampled the entire circulation yet...we
will keep the winds at 140 knots at this time. Satellite images
continue to show a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold
convective tops. Some weakening is forecast as Ivan moves farther
north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days...and encounters some westerly shear. However...Ivan should
still be a major hurricane when it reaches the United States coast.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 8 knots. There
has been no significant change in the steering which continues to
be controlled by a subtropical ridge centered over the western
Atlantic. Ivan is forecast to gradually turn northward around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge with no significant change in
speed before landfall. This is consistent with guidance which
brings the hurricane near the north central Gulf Coast in about 48
hours. Once inland...the guidance slows down a weakened Ivan over
the southeastern United States. This could produce another
significant rain event in that area.
Note: due to forecast errors...one should not focus on the exact
track as the eventual landfall point. The entire Hurricane Watch
area is at risk.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/0900z 22.6n 86.0w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/1800z 24.0n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 15/0600z 26.0n 87.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/1800z 28.0n 88.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 16/0600z 30.0n 88.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 17/0600z 33.5n 86.5w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/0600z 35.5n 84.5w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0600z 37.0n 82.0w 20 kt...inland
$$
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Guest
Hurricane Ivan
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0
WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND 575 MILES... 925 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
924 MB...27.29 INCHES.
THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 924 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 140837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0
WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND 575 MILES... 925 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS
924 MB...27.29 INCHES.
THE STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 924 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
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cycloneye
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTHWEST NEAR TRACK NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N... 62.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
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