5:00 HPCStrike Probabilities Don't Agree With Forecast Track

[canecaster]

26.1n 87.6w 9% 20% 1% < 1% 30%
28.2n 87.7w < 1% 16% 7% 2% 25%
Apalachicola Fl < 1% 1% 8% 6% 15%
Buras La < 1% 6% 12% 3% 21%
Cedar Key Fl < 1% < 1% 3% 6% 9%
Charleston Sc < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 3%
Cocoa Beach Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 3%
Daytona Beach Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 5% 5%
Freeport Tx < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 3%
Ft Myers Fl < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 4%
Ft Pierce Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 2%
Galveston Tx < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 4%
GULF 28n 89w < 1% 17% 6% 1% 24%
GULF 28n 91w < 1% 7% 7% 3% 17%
GULF 28n 93w < 1% 1% 3% 4% 8%
GULF 28n 95w < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% 3%
GULF 29n 85w < 1% 2% 9% 5% 16%
GULF 29n 87w < 1% 7% 13% 2% 22%

Gulfport Ms < 1% 2% 13% 5% 20%
Jacksonville Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 6% 6%
Key West Fl < 1% < 1% 1% 1% 2%
Marco Island Fl < 1% < 1% 1% 2% 3%
Mobile Al < 1% 1% 14% 4% 19%
Cabo San Antonia, CU(MUAN) 219n 850w 99% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
New Orleans La < 1% 2% 12% 4% 18%
Panama City Fl < 1% 1% 10% 6% 17%
Pensacola Fl < 1% 1% 13% 5% 19%

Why would Gulfport and Buras have the highest probabilities if the forecast is for landfall near or east of Pensacola?

[PurdueWx80]

The same thing happened for Charley...the probability was higher for Ft. Meyer's even though the track went in south of Tampa. I'm not exactly sure why they do this...these numbers may be skewed towards the model consensus, which points further west than their track.

[c5Camille]

they actually state in the discussion that they are
drawing the forcast line to the eastern extreem
of the NHC enveleope... what ever that's about.

[Ixolib]

they actually state in the discussion that they are
drawing the forcast line to the eastern extreem
of the NHC enveleope... what ever that's about.

Yes... What is that all about??

[TampaFl]

[wabbitoid]

If you look at the strike probabilities, the highest is 28N 89W. That's the mouth of the Mississippi.

[canecaster]

In my opinion, it seems absurd to say there is a 20% chance it will pass within 65 miles of gulfport and a 19% chance for P'cola, but let's draw the line to P'cola