Confused on MS Coast...

[Ixolib]

With the flip-flop in the models, and NHC keeping it's track eastward, is it reasonable in Biloxi to assume "less" concern? Or, am I just being lulled into a false sense of security? The northward movement started a lot of discussion about this now moving east of here to a significant degree. Then I looked at the probabilites compared to the track and now I'm beginning to feel even more confused. Am I alone in that feeling?

[wlfpack81]

Biloxi isn't totally safe yet. As you've seen with this storm things seem to change nearly every 6-12hrs or so.

[Steve]

Make preparations like a Cat 3 or Cat 4 is headed your way and act accordingly. Hotels available today are in Little Rock, Nashville and Beaumont. Joe B didn't change his forecast at 3:45. He likes a Camille track via mouth of the Mississippi. We'll see. I think MS/AL are the prime threat areas (then 100-150 miles east). But then again, I'm not the NHC.

Steve

[manofsteele79]

read the 5PM NHC discussion..... the NNW movement is temporary as one ridge lifts out and is replaced by another. The expect later this evening for a more NW movement to resume. I wouldn't let down my guard yet.

[PurdueWx80]

Ixolib, you are gonna give yourself an ulcer if you pay attention to every wobble in Ivan's track. Any location in the "cone of error" should be equally concerned about a hit. The last few frames of Ivan show a trend back to the NW, and there will likely be deviations from the average motion until Ivan hits the coast. Prepare whatever you need to as if the storm will come to Biloxi, but I wouldn't leave until you are given orders by the gov't or it looks more clear that Biloxi will be directly affected (that isn't for another 36 hours more than likely).

[Ixolib]

WOW - Now I really know how those FL west coasters feel (felt). It can be very trying on the mind and heart. It was much more easier to deal with these jumps, jogs, and steps when things were further out than now...

Edit added - taking a breath and reaffirming self to "proper" reaction. Thanks folks...

[Cape Verde]

Biloxi isn't totally safe yet. As you've seen with this storm things seem to change nearly every 6-12hrs or so.

<P>Something tells me that we have at least two more days of gutwrenching worry about where Ivan will come ashore. Every wobble will be over-analyzed, and everyone here who lives on the Gulf coast will assume somehow that it means the worst for them.<P>That's human nature. We all flinch when something bad approaches. Self defense mechanism.<P>But knowing why we do it doesn't prevent us from doing it.<P>The sad truth appears to be that Ivan will make US landfall, ripping apart homes and businesses and lives. And, as of tonight, we don't know whose those will be.

[rtd2]

"Ixolib, you are gonna give yourself an ulcer if you pay attention to every wobble in Ivan's track. Any location in the "cone of error" should be equally concerned about a hit. The last few frames of Ivan show a trend back to the NW, and there will likely be deviations from the average motion until Ivan hits the coast. Prepare whatever you need to as if the storm will come to Biloxi, but I wouldn't leave until you are given orders by the gov't or it looks more clear that Biloxi will be directly affected (that isn't for another 36 hours more than likely)."





Excellant advise Purdue! Ixolib Take some advice from a 'cane junkie! back away from the boards and sat loops for a couple hrs. then get ready for a Busy week regardless of were Ivan goes! once and where the trough pulls out will be the major player! GOTTA GO we got released an hour ago here at work to tend to FAMILY matters.... guess I'll take my on advice!