GFS joining the crowd...

[PurdueWx80]

I know we are supposed to post model runs on the sticky; however, there has been a general west trend in the last few days, and that trend has continued w/ the 18Z run. This morning, the model took Ivan in near or just east of Mobile Bay. This afternoon, Ivan brushes (or more likely looks to make landfall) over the MS Delta of LA, with a final landfall over the MS coast.

No one in the northern or eastern Gulf should feel safe yet. Ivan has also trended back to the NW or even WNW in the past few frames...just a wobble, but a discontinuity from the earlier NNW jog.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

[Ixolib]

I know we are supposed to post model runs on the sticky; however, there has been a general west trend in the last few days, and that trend has continued w/ the 18Z run. This morning, the model took Ivan in near or just east of Mobile Bay. This afternoon, Ivan brushes (or more likely looks to make landfall) over the MS Delta of LA, with a final landfall over the MS coast.

No one in the northern or eastern Gulf should feel safe yet. Ivan has also trended back to the NW or even WNW in the past few frames...just a wobble, but a discontinuity from the earlier NNW jog.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif

Guess that kinda confirms your advice to me in the other thread. I don't drink as a habit, but I'm getting the feeling this may be a good time give it some thought.

[tampastorm]

Back WNW? I dont see it. bottom line ppl on the W coast of FL can not let there guard down.

[PurdueWx80]

Guess that kinda confirms your advice to me in the other thread. I don't drink as a habit, but I'm getting the feeling this may be a good time give it some thought.

LOL...have a few hurricanes in honor of Ivan.

[Steve]

No one should let their guard down, but the movement is maybe 305 the last two frames. Ivan is notorious for not wanting to hit any landmasses and appears to be skirting the Western tip of Cuba. FL's west coast isn't likely to see anything more than some outflow and rainbands, maybe some stiff breezes. But dime to a dollar, there's little chance IF ANY that Tampa to Apalachacola is going to see landfall with this baby.

Purdue,

Your call mimmicks what Bastardi said on his 1:00 video and stuck with at 3:45. He likes a delta hit with a Camille track (meaning SW MS).

Steve

[tampastorm]

Back WNW? I dont see it. bottom line ppl on the W coast of FL can not let there guard down.

[PurdueWx80]

Well, it's not exactly my call - I was just pointing out that the GFS has shifted west to match many of the other globals. I've said MS Delta to Tampa from day one, then shortened that from New Orleans to Appalachicola (sic?) yesterday. I'll keep it there for now but I'm leaning more towards the western side. This does happen to agree w/ Joe's new stance. Anyway, looks like I'll continue to not get any sleep for the next week.

[Steve]

LOL. I had it Moss Point, MS to Seaside from Wed. Sometimes you just get that "Gulf" feeling though I never really considered Ivan a New Orleans threat.

It's gonna be interesting to see how long the avoidance wobble holds and how far W the storm can get. I was originally thinking that 88W would be an extreme event, but it's possible Ivan could approach 89.5 even before landfall.

Looking forward to more updates from you, MCG, MW, Derek and others as they arise.

Steve

[AL Chili Pepper]

Purdue and other professional mets.....my biggest fear is that Ivan will find his way to the back side of the trough and find weaker shear. What's your opinion Purdue?