I think the NHC forgot about TD 11...
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Brent
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Oh now it's out. 
Tropical Depression Eleven Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Poorly organized depression near the Leeward Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saba...St. Eustatius...and
St. Marteen...and for the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eleven was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude
60.8 west or very near Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over or
near the northern Leeward Islands later tonight and early on
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Locally
higher winds...possibly to tropical storm strength...can be
expected over higher terrain.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...16.0 N... 60.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
Tropical Depression Eleven Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 13, 2004
...Poorly organized depression near the Leeward Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Saba...St. Eustatius...and
St. Marteen...and for the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northen Lesser Antilles to the north of Guadeloupe.
At 8 PM AST...0000z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eleven was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude
60.8 west or very near Guadeloupe.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over or
near the northern Leeward Islands later tonight and early on
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Locally
higher winds...possibly to tropical storm strength...can be
expected over higher terrain.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of the depression.
Repeating the 8 PM AST position...16.0 N... 60.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.
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#neversummer
where did you find it?
iwas just a nhc home page and other related pages and i did not find anything... where did you find it?
thnax...
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-
ColdFront77
Advisories and discussions are on Weather Underground before they're on the National Hurricane Center's website, too.
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Weatherboy1
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Is this TD 11 in the 12UTC Euro?
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091312!!/
There looks to be an "L" on this map at 144-168 hours going through extreme South FL/the FL straits on the 12 UTC Euro. I can only view the runs from 72 hours+, but I'm guessing that low is TD#11. Doesn't show any intensification really, but that could change if the TD gets its act together. On the flip side of things, the 18Z GFS stalls Ivan's remnants after landfall. This results in a lack of a significant SW Atlantic ridge, thereby allowing TD #11 to come north (this looks to be what tonight's GFDL is showing as well ... a fish storm). I don't buy that idea right now, and the NHC ... at 5 p.m. ... didn't seem to either. There is some ridging off the E coast to Ivan's east, and with that ULL (the one that tried to grab Ivan) ejecting NE, as well as that other ULL in the Atlantic passing 11 to the north racing E-ward, I'm guessing we'll see a Bermuda high rebuild. We'll see.
There looks to be an "L" on this map at 144-168 hours going through extreme South FL/the FL straits on the 12 UTC Euro. I can only view the runs from 72 hours+, but I'm guessing that low is TD#11. Doesn't show any intensification really, but that could change if the TD gets its act together. On the flip side of things, the 18Z GFS stalls Ivan's remnants after landfall. This results in a lack of a significant SW Atlantic ridge, thereby allowing TD #11 to come north (this looks to be what tonight's GFDL is showing as well ... a fish storm). I don't buy that idea right now, and the NHC ... at 5 p.m. ... didn't seem to either. There is some ridging off the E coast to Ivan's east, and with that ULL (the one that tried to grab Ivan) ejecting NE, as well as that other ULL in the Atlantic passing 11 to the north racing E-ward, I'm guessing we'll see a Bermuda high rebuild. We'll see.
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