The so called "right" track seems less likely now to happen till inland, gonna heve to say landfall back to around Alabama right now, Florida gettin slowly out of the picture...
Still can't see why how NHC messed this storm up
An Odd feeling
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Stormtrack03
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An Odd feeling
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Stormtrack03
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Stormsfury
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I'm a rookie here, but I'll tell ya this.
I check this board 100 times a day, the NHC or TWC, zero.
There I get one opinion.
Here, I get many, and not all of them agree. But, if I read enough, and I figure out who's full of beans and who isn't, I can make an educated opinion of my own.
Thanks to all of you who tell me what's really going on.
I check this board 100 times a day, the NHC or TWC, zero.
There I get one opinion.
Here, I get many, and not all of them agree. But, if I read enough, and I figure out who's full of beans and who isn't, I can make an educated opinion of my own.
Thanks to all of you who tell me what's really going on.
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Stormtrack03
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Stormsfury wrote:NHC hasn't messed up anything ... Ivan has always been well within the cone and verification scores for track error is much better than the model guidance ...
SF
That's true, but they always change that cone every advisory so they make sure its almost impossible in their minds to be wrong lol... I'm talking about the difference from a predicted Florida keys landfall to now as far as MS / AL.
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Puhleeze,
Y'all can nitpick all you want, but the NHC has done an overall outstanding job. And frankly, I haven't seen a private met on this board or elsewhere that has done a consistently better job. And that's not a knock on any of those mets. Some of them have hit a home run or two this season and good for them (and good for the rest of us who have benefitted and learned from the many valuable insights they share).
And NHC's job is arguably much tougher than anyone on this board. A private met screws up a forecast and maybe a few companies make the wrong bet and it costs them some money. NHC screws up and millions of lives are put at risk. They are almost always going to err on the side of caution, side with the model consensus, and adjust their track whenever they see fit.
It's a free country. You want to run down the NHC, go right ahead. Personally, I'm glad they're on the job. Are they perfect? Of course not, but for a government agency they do an amazingly good job.
They missed in forecasting Frances' intensity for landfall,they forecasted ivan to go down the middle of Jamaica,and curve right over western Cuba,not to mention a goof or two with Charley
That's true, but they always change that cone every advisory so they make sure its almost impossible in their minds to be wrong lol... I'm talking about the difference from a predicted Florida keys landfall to now as far as MS / AL.
Y'all can nitpick all you want, but the NHC has done an overall outstanding job. And frankly, I haven't seen a private met on this board or elsewhere that has done a consistently better job. And that's not a knock on any of those mets. Some of them have hit a home run or two this season and good for them (and good for the rest of us who have benefitted and learned from the many valuable insights they share).
And NHC's job is arguably much tougher than anyone on this board. A private met screws up a forecast and maybe a few companies make the wrong bet and it costs them some money. NHC screws up and millions of lives are put at risk. They are almost always going to err on the side of caution, side with the model consensus, and adjust their track whenever they see fit.
It's a free country. You want to run down the NHC, go right ahead. Personally, I'm glad they're on the job. Are they perfect? Of course not, but for a government agency they do an amazingly good job.
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Stormcenter
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Re: An Odd feeling
Stormtrack03 wrote:The so called "right" track seems less likely now to happen till inland, gonna heve to say landfall back to around Alabama right now, Florida gettin slowly out of the picture...
Still can't see why how NHC messed this storm up
NOT WHAT I WANT HEAR.
I have a brother in AL.
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Stormsfury
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Stormtrack03 wrote:Stormsfury wrote:NHC hasn't messed up anything ... Ivan has always been well within the cone and verification scores for track error is much better than the model guidance ...
SF
That's true, but they always change that cone every advisory so they make sure its almost impossible in their minds to be wrong lol... I'm talking about the difference from a predicted Florida keys landfall to now as far as MS / AL.
Weather is a fluid science, new information leads to updated changes ... as for the "cone", it is the NHC's RESPONSIBILITY for having that "cone" to issue watches/warnings, and to PROTECT LIVES ... that's why the cone exists, and with updated information, it must follow the path of least regret ... they HAVE to be conservative. It is the nature of the beast ...
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jabber
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Best post I have seen in a while..... Nice job
Novacane wrote:Puhleeze,They missed in forecasting Frances' intensity for landfall,they forecasted ivan to go down the middle of Jamaica,and curve right over western Cuba,not to mention a goof or two with CharleyThat's true, but they always change that cone every advisory so they make sure its almost impossible in their minds to be wrong lol... I'm talking about the difference from a predicted Florida keys landfall to now as far as MS / AL.
Y'all can nitpick all you want, but the NHC has done an overall outstanding job. And frankly, I haven't seen a private met on this board or elsewhere that has done a consistently better job. And that's not a knock on any of those mets. Some of them have hit a home run or two this season and good for them (and good for the rest of us who have benefitted and learned from the many valuable insights they share).
And NHC's job is arguably much tougher than anyone on this board. A private met screws up a forecast and maybe a few companies make the wrong bet and it costs them some money. NHC screws up and millions of lives are put at risk. They are almost always going to err on the side of caution, side with the model consensus, and adjust their track whenever they see fit.
It's a free country. You want to run down the NHC, go right ahead. Personally, I'm glad they're on the job. Are they perfect? Of course not, but for a government agency they do an amazingly good job.
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Stormsfury
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Re: An Odd feeling
Stormtrack03 wrote:Still can't see why how NHC messed this storm up
Where'd you study meteorology? And your degree? Oh, that's right. I didn't think you had the qualifications to correct the NHC.
...Jennifer...
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QUOTE"Could you have done any better w/ the forecast? The NHC knows what they're doing. Let them do their job."
boo-hoo I've read 58 post in the last 4 hours claiming Tampa is not out of the woods! (and I'll say they are not but things do look better for tampa) This IS a DISCUSSION forum and the poster did not break any rules by posting his gut feeling! I didnt see an "Official forecast" statement on it so chill.... alot of people are on edge and I'm staying with my Original thinking of N.O. to P'cola but thats alot of land to cover and with the media hype that will be alot of water and plywood bought! Schools are closed in N.O. and Mobile so somebodies GUT feeling must count! I AGREE THE NHC has done a great job of pasting together a series of model runs that have been lackluster at best this year! Fact of the matter is the NHC will and has the ability to shift the track anyway the want until landfall thus putting thier track in the "CONE" .... ITS FAIL SAFE! so enjoy the debates and sometimes good forecast Or stick with the NHC'S web site!
boo-hoo I've read 58 post in the last 4 hours claiming Tampa is not out of the woods! (and I'll say they are not but things do look better for tampa) This IS a DISCUSSION forum and the poster did not break any rules by posting his gut feeling! I didnt see an "Official forecast" statement on it so chill.... alot of people are on edge and I'm staying with my Original thinking of N.O. to P'cola but thats alot of land to cover and with the media hype that will be alot of water and plywood bought! Schools are closed in N.O. and Mobile so somebodies GUT feeling must count! I AGREE THE NHC has done a great job of pasting together a series of model runs that have been lackluster at best this year! Fact of the matter is the NHC will and has the ability to shift the track anyway the want until landfall thus putting thier track in the "CONE" .... ITS FAIL SAFE! so enjoy the debates and sometimes good forecast Or stick with the NHC'S web site!
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