Local met

[donsutherland1]

Rainband,

In my view, it is not very good to speculate on what TPC will do. It is better to focus on the synoptic situation and explain how one sees the hurricane threat.

FWIW, I believe there are strong reasons why TPC won't make major shifts.

First, the overall environment hasn't changed materially. While Ivan had a brief north-northwest track, it's 12-hour average was still 322° (mainly northwest).

Overall, I believe that eastern LA across the FL Panhandle will remain the broad area of focus by TPC.

Second, one should bear in mind that TPC was at the eastern end of the model guidance through much of the day. The trend to the east among the models is not likely to force TPC to make big adjustments, as the shift merely brings Ivan closer to the existing TPC track.

For reference, TPC's 5pm track is below:

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 21.3n 84.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 22.7n 85.7w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 86.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 26.1n 87.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 28.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 31.5n 86.7w 90 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1800z 34.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1800z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland

[smashmode]

I know this storm will devastate anywhere it hits...but in terms of amount of damage and deaths, This thing hitting NOLA is the worst place it could hit.

Nola would basically be destroyed if this thing stays a CAT 4.

[Rainband]

Just posted what a local Met said. I am just happy I don't have to deal with Ivan.

[donsutherland1]

Rainband,

I fully understand.

Here's my issue with what happened. Let's say TPC does not shift, but the general public was convinced that TPC would shift. Then, this can only create confusion.

[otowntiger]

man you people in florida have went from preying to begging Ivan to come to florida and I too will be doing this for the next few days because i think you should give people what they want. LOL

HA! That's like the pot calling the kettle black!

[Ripopgodazippa]

I expect the 11pm NHC track to either maintain or shift west. This current motion is expected to last for stretch.

[latemodel25]

HA! That's like the pot calling the kettle black! I AGREE! WHAT AN ODD POST THAT WAS!

[therock1811]

man you people in florida have went from preying to begging Ivan to come to florida and I too will be doing this for the next few days because i think you should give people what they want. LOL

What a mean thing to say! I may be from Kentucky, but BELIEVE me, I'm VERY concerned and HOPEFUL that Ivan does NOT hit Florida...if it does, I of course will be among those praying for it to END!

[Rainband]

Rainband,

I fully understand.

Here's my issue with what happened. Let's say TPC does not shift, but the general public was convinced that TPC would shift. Then, this can only create confusion.

The only thing certain with Ivan has been confusion

[Aimless]

Thank you CFLCanewatcher... I couldn't have said it better ...

[tronbunny]

I'm stumped as to why your local met would speculate out loud about assuming the NHC would shift the track right...
Again, all the models are still going west.

[donsutherland1]

TPC shifted its track a little to the left in its latest package. As noted earlier, there were at least two strong arguments--particularly the one concerning the overall synoptic situation--against a shift to the right.

TPC's 11 pm track is below:

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/0300z 22.0n 85.4w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/1200z 23.1n 86.2w 140 kt
24hr VT 15/0000z 24.8n 87.3w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/1200z 26.6n 88.2w 130 kt
48hr VT 16/0000z 28.5n 88.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 17/0000z 32.0n 87.5w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 18/0000z 34.0n 86.0w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0000z 35.5n 83.5w 20 kt...inland

TPC's 5pm track is below:

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 21.3n 84.9w 140 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 22.7n 85.7w 140 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 24.2n 86.7w 135 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 26.1n 87.6w 130 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 28.2n 87.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 31.5n 86.7w 90 kt...inland
96hr VT 17/1800z 34.0n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 18/1800z 36.5n 81.5w 25 kt...inland