Ivan evening...general NW then N mvment, west FL panhandle

#1 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:09 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Basically the only thing I have been steady on is a Category 3 hurricane at landfall in Florida, which is forecasted here with 105kts on Thursday afternoon into late evening.

#2 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:14 pm

God I hope you're right. However, we need to narrow this down and fast. The margin of error is so large that there are virtually no hotel rooms available anywhere. We need to come to a consensus so people who don't need hotel rooms can cancel so that those who do will be able to get them. I hope you are right because people in New Orleans/MS gulf coast literally have nowhere to go.

lilbump3000 · #3 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:15 pm

The right of much of them you to the right of them a lot. Because tonight i was looking at the models about an hour ago and almost all of them have the system coming into the mississippi gulf coast.

Deana Cuevas · #4 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:21 pm

I'm a little confused. I thought the trough was going to push it NE? I'm in Tampa and my nerves are at the end.. I really feel bad for everyone in Mississippi.. Can anyone help me with this?

lilbump3000 · #5 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:23 pm

Ok here i go again. If this trough is suppose to so call catch ivan would you think that ivan will be racing to the N to NE right about now out ahead of it.

Deana Cuevas · #6 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:27 pm

Thanks! I see what you are saying. He is moving way to slow to "catch a ride", thus he may not (I'm praying) make it into Central Florida. I think that is a little ray of sunshine. Thanks! And again I am praying for everyone in GOM. Be SAFE!

rsm · #7 Postby **rsm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:36 pm

Deana - I too live in Tampa and my nerves are about shot (since Charley)!

It is very difficult to wish such a devastating storm away from us and into someone elses path, so , like you I hope it misses us and Weakens so as not to cause any major damage to anyone.

These are trying times for everyone living along the Gulf Coast, and hope we all stay Safe and strong, and get through this together.

Deana Cuevas · #8 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:41 pm

I appologize if that came out wrong. I don't want anyone to be in Ivan's path while he is this strong. I pray he weakens. Also just a wish. Since he really doesn't want to come in and get it over with because he has caused everyone enough worry maybe he should just head south...

BensonTCwatcher · #9 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:25 pm

Yesterday I was posting that the FL big bend was the most likely landfall center. I was basing that on the trough which stopped it's southern motion and lifted NE. I DID reserve the right to wrong, and I am exercising that now. I am a rookie after all....

Ivan appears to sandwiched between two ridges right now and the trough will not provide any path for Ivan given it's northen location. The key right now to this scenario is Ivan's speed. He slowed enough to wait out the pattern and now his speed north will determine whether he will make landfall in near Ft. Walton or NO.

If he moves quickly, then I see the NNW/N/NW jogs tracking him toward NO or Biloxi. If he slows more, then the trough that is digging down over the SW US will push the ridge currently to the W of Ivan eastward and he will curve in around Ft. Walton.

Just my take on it at this point.

#10 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:08 pm

I've read every thread I could find trying to determine what might happen and am more confused than ever. All I can say at this point is good luck to everyone in the potential path. I hope Ivan "makes up its mind soon" as the anticipation must be awful. Please heed all warnings and get out of the path when advised. There are no heros just for staying behind. Godspeed and be safe.

Lynn

#11 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:09 pm

Hurrah! After three seasons here I finally made a Tropical Depression!!!

#12 Postby **HollynLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:14 pm

I'm not so sure I'll be able to sleep much tonight. The uncertaintity is driving me nuts. I just wish I knew what to do. I spoke with my dh who is working in TX tonight, and I couldn't answer his question which was "if you need to evacuate, where will you go?". I can't go anywhere. My car is a small compact car which holds 10 gallons only, gas will be in short supply soon enough and I'm alone packing 2 children. I also think a big problem is that many FL residents who still haven't been able to return home evacuated this way and are still residing in the hotels. There is no where for Ivan's evacuees to go. This is quite a sticky situation. I just wish I had some answers. Hopefully, I'm worried for nothing!

Ivan evening...general NW then N mvment, west FL panhandle

Ivan evening...general NW then N mvment, west FL panhandle

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