ANYONE watchign GOES ??

[bobbisboy]

The 2AM plot may be a little interesing,

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 13E.JAVIER,

[yoda]

How so?

[HurryKane]

ANYONE watching GOES??

Yes but I think it has started watching me and it's laughing. Little brat.

[PurdueWx80]

It's a little hard to tell since the satellite switches but it almost looks like Ivan has been moving due north!

[FritzPaul]

All that shaking giving me a headache!

[bobbisboy]

Or dare I say almost a shade EAST of due north. HARD to tell with goes resolution. That is why I am interested to see the 2AM fix. I think those last 2 frames are legit though.

[MWatkins]

It definately looks like Ivan has been moving due north.

Of course...that could also be a result of sleep deprivation.

Still seems like the trough is not lifting yet...

MW

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's wobbling in small circling motions to the NW...the momentum of the system is making small circles as it moves steady NW, IMO.

[bobbisboy]

are the two sat pics......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Stormcenter]

It definately looks like Ivan has been moving due north.

Of course...that could also be a result of sleep deprivation.

Still seems like the trough is not lifting yet...

MW

This is encouraging news for those along the central (SE.LA.MS,AL)GOM.
But not for the entire Florida panhandle.

[Ajarens]

wait a minute..

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

wasnt Ivan past 85??? In this image he is back on the other side of 85 by a good margin. Can this be correct?

[FritzPaul]

I think that line is 86

[Stormcenter]

Here is the new 2am advisory


...Core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving slowly away
from the western tip of Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Pinar del Rio...Havana...City of Havana...and the Isle of Youth.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast
from east of Morgan City Louisiana eastward to St. Marks Florida
...Including greater New Orleans Louisiana.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 22.4 north...longitude 85.6 west or about 55 miles...90
km...northwest of the western tip of Cuba.

Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. No significant change in strength
is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb...27.23 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely occurring over portions of the South Coast of
extreme western Cuba. The storm surge and waves should begin to
slowly diminish within the next few hours.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected in
association with Ivan.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...22.4 N... 85.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 922 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[southerngale]

I don't see him on the other side of 85.

[calidoug]

0430Z to 0500Z was a NNE movement, per GOES10.

[PurdueWx80]

I think GOES-10 must be having some problems...this is an old satellite (obviously from the poorer resolution) so I'm not so sure it can be trusted..especially since the NHC is saying it's moving NW. The plane is still in there so the actual fixes are coming from it.

[Ajarens]

My bad... Without the grid labeled, I thought 84 was the tip of W. Cuba.. Sorry.

[FritzPaul]

Hey, he's finally on the right side of the forecast.

[southerngale]

N/P Ajarens

[PurdueWx80]

Look @ the Cancun radar post...Ivan has clearly moved NW and not N or NNE.