GOM trough digs in -- pushing east?....

[dixiebreeze]

That trough is hanging tough this a.m. Will it gradually push Ivan more easterly?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[WeatherNLU]

Dixie, I don't mean to contradict you, but the trough is gone. I don't know if you are just a weather watcher or a Meteorologist, but I just wanted to let you know.

[Aquawind]

The dry air looks so dramatic but its like a bark without much bite..the lifting energy has gone buy..Hopefully the dry air gets entrained and weakens it if anything..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[dixiebreeze]

I probably called it wrong. I was referring to that blast of dry air infiltrating the N. GOM.

[hurricanemike]

I beg to differ, but the trough is not gone. Its still digging S along 90W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Also, if you have noticed, the 8 am adv has Ivan going NNW, which is much much earlier than they expected.

[dixiebreeze]

The pattern this a.m. just looks so typical for pushing storms East in the N. GOM -- guess we'll find out soon.

[SwampDawg]

I beg to differ, but the trough is not gone. Its still digging S along 90W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Also, if you have noticed, the 8 am adv has Ivan going NNW, which is much much earlier than they expected.

Not a bad thing if you are Louisiana. I thought that the trough had lifted out?? Well, I guess they were wrong again.

[jlauderdal]

I beg to differ, but the trough is not gone. Its still digging S along 90W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Also, if you have noticed, the 8 am adv has Ivan going NNW, which is much much earlier than they expected.

I agree, i still see troughing in place and digging also.

[WeatherNLU]

I beg to differ, but the trough is not gone. Its still digging S along 90W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Also, if you have noticed, the 8 am adv has Ivan going NNW, which is much much earlier than they expected.

You're entitled to differ.

[Pawleys Island]

Looking at the recent loops, notice how the dry air is being pulled into the circulation. Will the storm absorb this dry air or is it just pushing it out of it's way?

[Aquawind]

The shortwave has expanded..but the vortmax associated is moving away albeit slowly.. but yeah the growing dry keeps pushing into the gulf as well..I always thought the timing of the turn was the next big question other than strength at landfall..

[dixiebreeze]

I'm sticking with a nudge eastward if the trough/dry air sag hangs in there today.

Noticed late last night Jim Cantore had moved east from Pensacola to Panama City Beach

[HurricaneQueen]

I have to say as a neophyte that looking at the same satellite picture, I would have come to the same conclusion as Dixie. It certainly looks as if the trough is pushing down and could move Ivan more eastward. Wherever it goes I feel for the people in its path!

[Brent]

I'm sticking with a nudge eastward if the trough/dry air sag hangs in there today.

Noticed late last night Jim Cantore had moved east from Pensacola to Panama City Beach

No... I never saw Jim in Pensacola. He was in Punta Gorda and then turned up in Panama City Sunday Night.

[Air Force Met]

I beg to differ, but the trough is not gone. Its still digging S along 90W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Also, if you have noticed, the 8 am adv has Ivan going NNW, which is much much earlier than they expected.

That's not the trough along 90 west. That is the subsidence from the high over east Texas. The trough is sitting at 87w...due north of Ivan.

Initialize the wv image with the upper air:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

You will see then that the 500 mb shortwave is due north and moving out. The dry air near 90 is not a short wave but sinking air in front of the high over east texas.

Go here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

and you will see this is true. It's not a trough...it's a COL.

[rtd2]

Thanks AIRFORCE I see what your saying but It sure looked like that trough was hanging on

[weatherFrEaK]

Good analysis AFM.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So in other words what effects will this have on the track and strength of Ivan?

[rtd2]

"So in other words what effects will this have on the track and strength of Ivan?'

Quoting local Met he said The dry air moving south would not change Ivans direction BUT could help weaken it some and slow its fwd. motion he showed high building back in of Fla. and high over Texas.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So if the high is building back in over Florida would that make Ivan go more west than north as it builds back in?