Don't live by the models!!!

[Ground_Zero_92]

Let's call this situation for what it is. None of the models have had a good handle on Ivan since it entered the Carribean. It looks like the trough is still digging in around 90 west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If I was a resident of the eastern gulf, I would keep a very cautious eye on Ivan. I think he is enjoying fooling the models, and has more tricks up his sleeve.

Just my 2 cents.

[melhow]

Zero...you may want to scroll on down to the thread "GOM trough digs in..." and read the observations of AIRFORCEMET...I do not think that your trough is a trough.....see hwat you think after reading...

[rtd2]

Yep local met just confirmed it was actually the HP

[tallbunch]

Models change how many times a day.....no one knows where Ivan is going.

[Ground_Zero_92]

I know people like you try and find anything they can to pyt fear into people but the bottom line is ALL the models even ones you don't see on there site or others take it north and not north east till the end.

Where have they went bad in the last 3 days? yes at first SOME models had it going under Florida but after that the only miss it has had was a Jot missing a few places BUT NOT OUT OF THE CONE.So as they say watch inside the cone area.

And BTW in my local Morning News the Met who is very good went over the Water vapor and had no problem with it saying all things are as they expect it to be.People on the east Gulf don't have to be told to watch it as all of us are watching it .

I don't know about you, but the models were forecasting this NW turn since before Jamacia. They have changed every day since Ivan pushed more west. Maybe I am missing something but that is the way I see it.

[rtd2]

I think another key point here is we are well within the 3 day forecast period. NHC admits large errors 5 days and more but with 3 day they seem to pull things together quit well as far as models they have been very bad this year on ridges and troughs But FSU model called Biloxi L/F 3 days ago....LETS SEE how close FSU gets!

[Anonymous]

The problem is the NHC 5 day forecast they are issuing this yr. I think these are a bad idea and they should stick to a 3 day track until the technology is in place to better predict the future tracks out over 72 hrs. The 3 day should be put back in place, the 5 day is too far out and has caused the public to mis-understand the quirky nature of tropical forecasting, as well as way too much attention given just to the center point and not the entire cone.
This latest event with Ivan and the 5 day has cost the state of Florida millions in lost economics, closed schools, lost pay, non-needed evaucations, and more importantly added a ton of stress to a fearful public.
In defense of the 5 day forecast the NHC and local goverments say its good that people are at least prepared for what could happen well in advance. This may be true, but I for one can't afford to go out and purchase hurricane supplies just to have them hang around. I wish I could but I bet I am not alone on this. At $28.00 a sheet for plywood, that adds up quickly. The loss of income is also taking a toll on most business.
Please don't cry wolf too much, I understand the importance but until the technology is there NHC why not work on improving the 3 day forecast first then move on with time to a more accurate 5 day? There is enough time to prepare in most areas for a 48 hr evac.

Take Care,
Mike

Mike