From 5am to 7am, Ivan's estimated position (per NHC) moved north .5 and west .1. Between 7 and 10, Ivan moved up .3 and west .1. Several of the western models have a bend NW (ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL) followed by a return to NNW and then finally heading in North at landfall near the MS/LA border.
You can see this on Scott in VA's tropical model map.
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On Bastardi's video this morning, he made it a point to say that if the storm comes in just west of Mobile, it would deal a devastating blow to the Bay (funnel shaped, wide mouth, narrow apex). He believes it's a Camille type track which would deal some hurricane gusts to New Orleans from the north, some flooding and some torrential rains. But Mobile and the MS Coasts (and even 100-150 miles into Florida) is going to get the worst of this one.
Steve
Updated modles, movement, etc. and MAJOR threat for Mobile?
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