11am Ivan-140 mph winds, 932 mb pressure

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Brent
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11am Ivan-140 mph winds, 932 mb pressure

#1 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:30 am

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... arine.html

Landfall near MS/AL border.
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#2 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:33 am

Ivan;s eye is looking more defined now, expect a pressure drop on next pass.
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#3 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:33 am

Glad to hear it has weakened some.. Still a Cat 4.. but no longer a borderline 5..
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#4 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:35 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:Ivan;s eye is looking more defined now, expect a pressure drop on next pass.


Looks like they have it as 135 mph just before at landfall. Nothing to mess around with folks. I expect a tremendous storm surge.
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#5 Postby Skywatch_NC » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:35 am

NHC now has Ivan at a Cat 3 at landfall.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409.gif

Eric
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#6 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:39 am

Yeah, w/ this forecast Mobile Bay will see a tremendous surge. Has Mobile been evacuated yet? Also, w/ their forecast the Appalachians will see a flood beyond imagination as Ivan stalls over TN/Carolinas.
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#7 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:40 am

Glad to see that it has weakened. Still very dangerous.
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#8 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:41 am

140 very generous based on recon.........
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#9 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:41 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Yeah, w/ this forecast Mobile Bay will see a tremendous surge. Has Mobile been evacuated yet? Also, w/ their forecast the Appalachians will see a flood beyond imagination as Ivan stalls over TN/Carolinas.


Not yet. The Governor has ordered mandatory evacuations for coastal Baldwin county just east of Mobile.
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#10 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:44 am

Stay safe everyone in the path
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#11 Postby frankthetank » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:50 am

looks like some dry air getting drawn in...possible source of weakening??

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv
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#12 Postby simplykristi » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:50 am

Stay safe!!!!!

Kristi
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#13 Postby LAwxrgal » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:57 am

I'm glad to hear this storm is weakening -- however, by no means should any of us let our guard down. This is still a major hurricane! Just because it's not a Cat 5 like it was for seemingly forever, doesn't mean it's not dangerous.
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#14 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:21 am

NHC now has Ivan at a Cat 3 at landfall.


to be fair they have it as a cat 4 most likely at landfall and then weakening to a cat 3 after....based on the 48 hour 120kts....

now i dont agree with this at all and think they are taking the extreme view on the intensity (much like the current advisory)....but to be fair that is the forecast.
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#15 Postby Skywatch_NC » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:31 am

dennis1x1 wrote:
NHC now has Ivan at a Cat 3 at landfall.


to be fair they have it as a cat 4 most likely at landfall and then weakening to a cat 3 after....based on the 48 hour 120kts....

now i dont agree with this at all and think they are taking the extreme view on the intensity (much like the current advisory)....but to be fair that is the forecast.


But even for Wed. they currently have it as a Cat 3 before a Thurs. landfall.

Eric
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#16 Postby cape_escape » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:39 am

I relly hope he keeps getting weaker for all of your sakes up there! STAY SAFE!!!
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#17 Postby soonertwister » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:39 am

NHC has the storm at 120 KTS, or 140 mph, prior to landfall. Just shortly after landfall they reduce the strength to 110 KTS, or 125 mph.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W...<b>INLAND</b>
MAX WIND <b>110 KT</b>...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 125NW.
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#18 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:41 am

The IR looks like Ivan is trying to fight the shear and dry air.
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#19 Postby Skywatch_NC » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:43 am

mf_dolphin wrote:The IR looks like Ivan is trying to fight the shear and dry air.


Let's all pray and hope that Ivan loses in this fight!

NO more Cat 4 or 5 for you (after today)...you Russian Czar/Tsar tyrant 'cane!

Eric
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