SE United States setup for worst flooding ever?

[greeng13]

TWC was just hinting about Ivan stalling over the Carolina's in the future. Did anyone else catch that?

how long ago...i read the post on the local mets and changed to channel 5....we difinitly do not need anymore rain on the whole east coast!!!

the musk even mentioned vermont...he is correct...i have friends who went to a concert there a few weeks ago (camping and all) and it is a wonder the event even took place....50,000 or so couldn't even make it in because they were already at 300% of their rainfall and a deluge occurred right before/during people entering the concert grounds

[Guest]

Two Rivers breaking records right there... and here is a link to some NC Flooding news http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/ ... 5048c.html


FOR THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON, RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING, WITH A
STAGE OF 20.1 FEET MEASURED AT 8 AM FRIDAY. RECORD FLOODING IS
FORECAST, WITH A MAXIMUM STAGE OF 20.6 FEET AROUND 8 PM FRIDAY. THIS
LEVEL IS 7.6 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AT 20.0 FEET, FLOODWATERS COME
WITHIN 40 FEET OF THE PEPSI PLANT ON CHIPPEWA STREET. THE PLANT IS
LOCATED 2 BLOCKS AWAY FROM THE RIVER AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF CUTLER
MOORE BRIDGE.

FOR BLACK CREEK NEAR QUINBY, RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING, WITH A
STAGE OF 16.1 FEET MEASURED AT 11 AM FRIDAY. AT 15.0 FEET,
FLOODWATERS ENTER NUMEROUS HOMES ON CREEKSIDE DRIVE, EAST
BLACK CREEK ROAD AND CROOKED CREEK DRIVE.

[Guest]

Does flooding potential remain for GA, SC, NC?

[Guest]

It's sad in less than 24hours this thread can be pushed back 4 pages. Multiple threads on the same topic makes no sense to me.

[lookout]

It's sad in less than 24hours this thread can be pushed back 4 pages. Multiple threads on the same topic makes no sense to me.

especially when you consider how severe the situation could be in Georgia, South carolina, and north carolina in a few days. a lot of attention is being focuses on the actual landfall but this story is going to be right up there with the destruction ivan puts out where he makes landfall. for instance, this go around, hurricane force winds will make it well inland into georgia with nhc forecasted 50 kt substained winds with higher gusts making it as far north as Athens, Georgia. it wouldnt suprise me to see hurricane force gusts as far north as athens, georgia and anderson south carolina with 50 to 60mph gusts to greenville. higher elevations in the mountains are going to see some very strong winds, easily over hurricane force as it will take time for the mid-level circulation to wind down. This will cause substantial damage to trees around the state of georgia, the upstate of south carolina and western north carolina..on TOP of massive flooding. im really worried about the potential for some extreme flooding in the mountains. Also keep in mind, that i expect the rainfall rates will be heavier than with frances. frances rains were in general light to moderate, they just lasted forever and thats the reason we got so much. with ivan, we should expect a much stronger storm as it moves across the region instead of a very weakened frances. So even though ivan will be moving faster, the rainfall rates will result in possibly similiar totals, on the order of 4 to 9 inches with scattered amounts close to a foot in the western north carolina mountains. but since this rain will fall in a shorter time period, a TON of runoff and flooding will occur. Folks in these areas really need to pay attention to the track of ivan and get prepared for long periods of power outages and restricted travel due to flooding. of course the track could change and would greatly effect what could happen. but it seems the models are in pretty good agreement in bring the rain into the interior southeast, right where they dont need it.

[Guest]

The local news is stressing how bad the flooding could get later in the week. If the current projected track happens, the whole eastern sea-board is in trouble.

[Stormwinds]

OK....I'M *STILL* HERE...IN A TRAILER, WEST OF ASHEVILLE, BY TENN. BORDER! COULDN'T PAY BILLS IN CANTON AS THEY ARE IN BAD SHAPE!
IN THE MIDDLE OF MOVING, AT BEG. OF OCT. TO THE ROCKIES...
SOOOOOOO....WILL THE TRAILER I'M IN ...OUT IN THE OPEN, UP ON A HILL....BE A SAFE PLACE? TO GO ANYWHERE ELSE...IS TO GO "DOWN" IN LOW LYING AREAS!
I CANNOT FIND ANY "LOCAL" INSTRUCTION FOR ANYTHING!!
~IT'S FRUSTRATING, WONDERING!~
*Basically Going To Have Things Ready To Go To A Motel, But AGAIN, They Are In A LOW Lying City*
Anyone Up Here By Me?
Yes, I've Checked The NC Stuff, But Couldn't Find Direct Stuff On HAYWOOD COUNTY! They Opened A Temp Shelter, At A Festival Center, As We Were Drier Than Canton...BUT It's LOW Lying, And NOT Much Room...Emergencies ONLY!
~Stormwinds~

[mikeetheman2002]

could ivan bring decent rains to the NE(nyc area) at the end of next week?

[Guest]

I would think so. You might be need to prepare to use the bus system if you live in the city.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

We are looking at a pretty bad situation in the Western Carolinas. Orographic lift and east upslope winds are the bain of all Carolinians. EVERY river is at or near flood stage. The Charlotte Met's aren't showing concern yet...but with each progressive track still showing a movement up the spine of the Appalachians...ugh.

NC State 24-Ohio State 14

[Guest]

^^^ haha oh man that score prediction is awesome!

[Guest]

With the new TD out there it's looking even worse.

[Guest]

With Jeanne out there I don't know what's going to happen. It's cloudy today. No rain yet but it's forcasted.

[PurdueWx80]

Official HPC precipitation forecast from Monday evening through Saturday evening...expect locally more where training occurs.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[Guest]

Thanks Purdue.

[Kilgore Trout]

Official HPC precipitation forecast from Monday evening through Saturday evening...expect locally more where training occurs.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

That's bad news. As has already been mentioned, Western North Carolina got hit really hard last week because of Frances. You can read about the flooding here: http://www.citizen-times.com/frances.shtml There were local rainfall amounts from Frances that exceeded 16 inches, and the mountainous territory only makes that amount of precip worse. The Swannanoa River had its worse flooding since 1916, and the French Broad River had its fourth worst flood level ever. Over 100,000 people were without water for several days.

I really hope Ivan stays to the west or east of the Appalachains. Unfortunately west would mean New Orleans, which is probably the worst coastal city to face a hurricane.

[PurdueWx80]

That's the fcst from last night...this morning's shows less, but in the same general area. The 12Z GFS (and other models) completely stall Ivan out over the southern Appalachians - this is NOT looking good at all. It's hard to believe some of these areas were just in a major drought not all that long ago.

[Stephanie]

From Florida up north through Viginia you have extremely saturated ground.

Not just through Virginia. All the way up here in Vermont, the ground is saturated. There's nowhere for more water to go (nowhere good, anyway). I've heard from my nurses aides that they're having problems doing their job because of all the washed-out roads.

We got lucky with Frances in that we ended up in a dry slot for most of the remnant's passage. But whether we'll be so lucky with Ivan is far from certain. And if we're not so lucky, things are going to get ugly over here.

We were fortunate as well in New Jersey, since Frances stayed to our west. We already had flooding rains in July (14" in Tabernacle) NOT as a result of a tropical system. We've been in a bit of a dry slot the last few weeks, so that is a help if we were to get anything from Ivan.

[saltcod]

I'm in Asheville NC and -still- waiting for water after Frances, though most have theirs restored. Local mets are already seriously fidgeting over Ivan, in very gloom-and-doom voices. The city appears to be basically waiting to clean anything up until after Ivan goes through--it wouldn't take much rain to push all our rivers up again, and hey, why clean up twice? I'd be happy to hope for Ivan to go anywhere else, but like everyone else I see around town, I'm expecting the worst. Last week's flood were bad enough, and none of us want to see any more damage, but.
I do hope I get water back long enough to wash the dishes.
(It's the little things...)

[Kilgore Trout]

I'm in Asheville NC and -still- waiting for water after Frances, though most have theirs restored.

I'm in Asheville too and am lucky enough to have had my water restored since Saturday. Flushing the toilets was the worst part of it (3 gallons each time). I will definitely be filling up my bathtub for Ivan.