GOM trough digs in -- pushing east?....

[Aquawind]

my instructors drummed into me that a good forecast has to start with a near perfect analysis

I agree with that entirely..always have..darn near preached it a few times..lol

[Air Force Met]

AFM - I agree whole-heartedly w/ you on the hand analysis. They still teach these methods at Purdue - and I'd like to think of myself as an equally excellent analyzer because of this. Computer algorithms that do all of the analysis for you aren't perfect, and sometimes a subjective look is much better than the rules a computer follows. Don't be ashamed!!!! Dinosaurs are cool!

Right! I yell a little at my jr forecasters when they just accept the smoothing of the contour lines on teh chart without microanalyzing the plots to dig out those shortwaves.

My atmosphere is not made up of nice smooth lines...it's got a lot of kinks

and when you see a storm jogging north and joggin west...you see those kinks. That's why I get tickled when someone posts a thread about a one frame wobble on the satellite. they don't understand that there are kinks in the atmophere that a hurricane stair-steps against.

[APRS-CW0262]

Very cool Air Force Met

[ROCK]

remind me never p---s off AFM......lol

[tronbunny]

Nope...don't feel foolish at all. That is a wrong analysis. Sorry.
<snip>
Do you see a trough at 90W? No...there is a ridge and a high sitting over eastern LA. The trough is now sitting a little NNE of Ivan and has lifted out. Again...look at the links I posted and tell me where that is wrong? Look at the one I just posted. There is no trough there. How can there be a "digging trough" in anticyclonic flow?
<snip>
So...do I feel foolish? Nope. However wrote that discussion ought to though. Don't take my word for it...here is what the NHC said about it:

A SECOND MID-LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z RAOBS AND JET DATA INDICATE THAT THIS
LATTER RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE 6Z GFS RUN.

Compair that to what the writer of the discussion wrote AND the data. Who do YOU think is right? The NHC or the lone individual who is bucking the NHC and the data?

So...NO!! don't feel foolish at all. Actually, I feel very right about my analysis on the RIDGE located over LA (See the NHC 11 am discussion...if there was a trough west of Ivan and digging south...they would have mentioned it!...They don't...they only talk about the ridge that I said was there).

Why do I feel right? Because the 12z analysis (not some model...the actual plots)...backs it up.


Look again at the title on that "tropical discussion" you're disagreeing with.
It originates from the TAFB, you know, where the NHC gets its data...

AXNT20 KNHC 141211
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 14 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.
<snip>
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BIG WEATHER MAKER IN THE GULF IS HURRICANE IVAN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO OVER THE E
UNITED STATES WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NE
ACROSS KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BASE OF THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR NOW AFFECTING MOST OF THE N GULF COAST
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF HURRICANE IVAN.
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF HURRICANE
IVAN PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF CREATING A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO GALVESTON.

CARIBBEAN...
EVEN THOUGH IVAN IS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF MEXICO
BROAD RIDGING IS STILL COVERING THE W TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN EXTENDS S
ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. TO THE E...T.D. ELEVEN IS NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
<snip>
$$
WALLACE

[rbaker]

well regardless, of forecasters, models, and others, over the weekend they had ivan hitting west coast of fla, now we are talking about mobile, new orleans, or even futher west according to some of the pro mets on here.
I believe the tpc and the models and failure to forecast synoptic patterns have blown it big time whether your a pro or not.

[Air Force Met]

I'm just showing you where ANYONE would get the idea that a trough was digging in!

Your gripe is with no one that reads this stuff, it's with the forecaster,
Wallace.
Now go take a chill pill.

You know...an imposter yesterday in the chat room (who was posing as Barometer Bob and Derek) also told me to take a chill pill...and they were also from that area of Florida. So...maybe you are one in the same?

Need some data...but their name was panhandle and they used some of the exact same phrases and had the exact same attitude. Who knows...maybe that is why you had a complaint...because I told you this storm was not coming to Tampa and you just really want it to (told that to panhandle). Maybe it's not you...but the words you have used are very similiar to his. Maybe a coincidence.

One way you can prove it though. Debate me with some data. He never would. He just got all emotional and threw a fit. So...all I ask is to talk about data. Can we do that? If it is not you, Panhandle, then disregard the above...and let us stick with the data instead of our emotions.

First...I am not getting snippy. I am pointing to data. Maybe to some that is getting snippy. I assure you...it's not. It is pointing out fallacies in an analyzing tech.

Second...you wre not just showing me where someone would get the idea...you were basically telling me I was foolish for saying it was not a trough...but a col. You said "Anybody feel foolish? "

And I said "No...and here is why"

How is that snippy? It is a statement of fact to your question about me being foolish.

And...my "gripe" is not with wallace...I didn't post his analysis...nor would I because it doesn't line up with the data. I also know the TAFB is part of the TPC. However, this forecaster has conflicted with the NHC discussion and the data. I am sure he made a mistake and is not a bad forecaster. I have said that. His mistake was he did not look at the analysis.

So...I don't think I need to be told to take a chill pill...or be called "young man" and put into my place by anyone named tronbunny
You asked a question...and basically said I was a fool for my analysis. I answered YOUR POST (not Wallace's) with emperical data that backed up my original position.

Now...if you have some emperical data that conflicts with what I said...and supports the statement you posted that you thought proved me foolish....please post it. Let's deal with facts and numbers here...tehre is certainly no need to me emotional about it. Give me saome data that proves your idea that I should feel foolish....but leave the emotion comments out of it. There is no place for that. I'm just here to look at the data and give my take on it. If there is a problem with that analysis...then that is fair game. But...trying to put me in my place and tell me to take a chill pill has no place in a forum such as this.

[rbaker]

Im glad you were not posting your comments towards me airforemet. I can't speak about someone else's comments, and i know you were not directing your comments towards me personaly.
Having said that, I myself live in fla, and I have watched ivan since the get-go and the forecasters in general have been off on this one like I said before big time. And I do have previous post about their forcast and the tpc own archives to prove that.

[dixiebreeze]

Hey Rbaker, I know you're a serious weather watcher and I trust your judgment -- Big Time!

Do you think Ivan will trend east when it gets farther north, as 'canes often do?

[rbaker]

hi dixie what a thread! once it gets and that's a if it gets up by the coast yes i think i will turn nne or ne because it will be closer to trough comind down through west tx as i write this, and it will be in the mid lat westerlies by that time. My only concern is a further w movement if a ridge is over the coast right now may flatten it out and start a wnw mvmet again, or possible stall it out, like Danny several years ago.

[dixiebreeze]

I hear you, Sgt.! Which 'cane or TS stalled so long over Mobile Bay a few years ago? Bob?

[dixiebreeze]

It was TS Danny.