FSU Superensemble given kudos again

[GTStorm]

11:00 AM advisory mentions FSU superensemble as being, once again, very good with a tropical system. How long before the resulting track of the superensemble is made available publically, like all of the individual models on which it is based? Seems like this is becoming the analytical solution to go with.....

[Ixolib]

11:00 AM advisory mentions FSU superensemble as being, once again, very good with a tropical system. How long before the resulting track of the superensemble is made available publically, like all of the individual models on which it is based? Seems like this is becoming the analytical solution to go with.....

What did you use to come to this conclusion?

[JMGNole]

Are they still saying Biloxi?

[vbhoutex]

Short synopsis of other posts elsewhere in HH forum days ago-FSU Superensemble is based on all the other models and is designed to take the know biases of those models out to come up with a prediction. I think that is a good short synopsis of what I read. This model is 3 years old if I remember correctly and still in "testing". It's performance from what I understand has been very good.

Hopefully the owners of this model will see fit to begin releasing it publicly after this season if the performance holds up. Of course it is obvious that NHC and some others do have access so we have been lucky enough to benefit at least a little bit from it.

BTW, and this is just my opinion, I would look for some tweaking of most models after the overall performance we have seen so far this year, at least in the long range areas. I am not bashing any model, but I personally think there may be some model tweaking that can be done to improve the performance of the models overall(possibly including different and more data?). And yes I do use the models along with other resources when "forecasting".

[GTStorm]

What did you use to come to this conclusion?

From the 11:00 AM advisory on Ivan: THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM

Also, a couple of articles were posted last week talking about the use of the Superensemble and its accuracy, especially with Floyd and I think Charley. I apologize that I do not still have the links.

[BlizzardNole]

If only we could get our football team to perform as well as the Superensemble.

[Ixolib]

What did you use to come to this conclusion?

From the 11:00 AM advisory on Ivan: THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM

Also, a couple of articles were posted last week talking about the use of the Superensemble and its accuracy, especially with Floyd and I think Charley. I apologize that I do not still have the links.

Thanks GT, appreciate the info and discussion.

[PurdueWx80]

vbhoutex - Ivan will provide an excellent case/modeling study to researchers, but the models are constantly being improved and added to, and there is always more data becoming available. There is a particular move towards remotely sensing the environment over the oceans using satellites. For now, there won't be any specific, immediate way to tune the models after their performance on Ivan - it'll take a lot more time, money and hard work than that.

[lbchandler]

Director of FSU super computer model was on TV this morning. He said they take all of the models used bt NHC as well as models from Penn State, Princeton and Colorado State. They then remove errors or bias from each model and run all of them together to get a consensus. he predicts landfall on Al. Ms. line