Mobile Bay

[jes]

Fredrick sucked all the water out of our Bay. How is Ivan supposed to affect the Bay. How much flooding is possible?

[Brent]

Depends. If Ivan comes in just west, there will be a tremondous surge in the Bay because of the onshore flow. If like Frances, it's on the west side, there won't be because there will be an offshore flow.

[betsy65freddy79]

It also depends on tides at the time. As I remember with Frederic, it was at low tide. I also remember hearing (don't know if it was true) that it was partially due to the eliptical shape of the eye.

[gratefulnole]

Fredrick sucked all the water out of our Bay. How is Ivan supposed to affect the Bay. How much flooding is possible?

Frederick crossed Mobile Bay from the se end to the nw end into Mobile. When the hurricane was to the se of Mobile Bay it sucked most of the water out and left the USS Alabama on dry ground. An hour later as Frederick crossed the bay it filled backup and flooded downtown Mobile.

Storm surge is to the right of the eye as it crosses land. Negative storm surge is possible to the left of the eye.

[therock1811]

Didn't think there was such a thing as negative storm surge...

[Josephine96]

Who was Fredrick? lol

[Lindaloo]

A powerful hurricane that ripped through this area in 1979.

[karenfromheaven]

Frances sucked a foot or more of water out of St. Andrew Bay as she tracked north to our east here in Panama City. I had to practically jump down onto my sailboat as the winds came at low tide. This was nicely predicted by the way by the NWS Extratropical Storm Surge info at this link:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/

Regards, Karen

[ccsuzy]

If Ivan goes in over Mobile, what sort of impact could one expect in Saraland? I have a cousin there - she's in complete denial that this storm will affect her much. I'm trying to convince her otherwise. Thanks.

[AlabamaDave]

If Ivan goes in over Mobile, what sort of impact could one expect in Saraland? I have a cousin there - she's in complete denial that this storm will affect her much. I'm trying to convince her otherwise. Thanks.

It will be very bad there, if the latest track verifies. Saraland will have extreme winds. Ivan is not one to take chances with -- he was weakening this morning but now looks extremely good. Does your cousin remember Hurricane Frederic?? This one may be just as intense, if not worse.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I was just noticing that too, Dave. Looks like he's trying to get his act back together again...at least on WV. More symmetrical than it was when I got up this morning.

[Brent]

If Ivan goes in over Mobile, what sort of impact could one expect in Saraland? I have a cousin there - she's in complete denial that this storm will affect her much. I'm trying to convince her otherwise. Thanks.

Going to be very bad. Probably a worst case scenario. Sustained winds well over 100 mph for many many hours and tremondous flooding.

[Miller]

Tell your cousin that Saraland will not be any better off than the city of Mobile. That this storm is serious enough for Shell Chemical to shut down their refinery there on Industrial Boulevard. By 6AM tomorrow morning, the whole place will be down, dark and locked up. That should be enough to convince her how serious it is. Consider how much money Shell will lose.