Floydbuster's 15th Ivan forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 15
Tuesday September 14, 2004 2PM
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan has weakened just slightly today, due mainly to an eyewall replacement cycle and A LITTLE BIT OF DRY AIR. However, reports from Aircraft Recon indicates the pressure is down one millibar to 931 mb and the winds are getting stronger.

I have just extended my track. I still have it coming in near the border of Alabama and Mississippi and have it then being moved northeast.

As for intensity, the shear is to lessen, there is not too much dry air, and the hurricane should maintain it's intensity, if not even get a little bit stronger as it crosses over warm gulf waters. In any case, I am forecasting 140 mph up until the coast, and 145 mph at landfall due to some possible intensification.

12 HRS-- 25.0N-- 87.8 W-- 120 kt
24 HRS-- 26.3 N-- 88.1 W-- 120 kt
36 HRS-- 29.0 N-- 88.2 W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 31.2 N-- 87.9 W-- 100 kt (INLAND)
72 HRS-- 34.6 N-- 87.0 W-- 70 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 36.2 N-- 85.0 W-- 45 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 38.8 N-- 82.8 W-- 30 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

[golter]

You have it crossing 25N & 87.8W, current location is 23.7N and 86.5W. That is due NW of current location. My question is this, if (I said if) Ivan crosses 25N closer to 87W (as I project curent heading to take it) how much will that affect your landfall call? If I copy your track and make it go through that point, landfall occurs near PCB, is that a possible scenario?

[rdcrds]

Well all of your forcats up to now have been wrong and i think your 145 at landfall is way off.There will still be shear and the water temps right before landfall also will hurt it.Once it goes over 29 both shear and water temps are going to do a number on it.Most all and mine also call for a cat 2 cane at landfall.I don't see anything to support 145

[yoda]

Well all of your forcats up to now have been wrong and i think your 145 at landfall is way off.There will still be shear and the water temps right before landfall also will hurt it.Once it goes over 29 both shear and water temps are going to do a number on it.Most all and mine also call for a cat 2 cane at landfall.I don't see anything to support 145

Not all... NHC and Derek call for a MAJOR (Cat 3/4) at landfall.

[Skywatch_NC]

NHC has Ivan as a Cat 3 both tomorrow...and on Thursday at landfall.

Eric

[Hurricane Cheese]

The NHC has IVAN at 120 kts (140 mph) just off the LA coast in 36 hours

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 23.4N 86.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 24.4N 86.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 26.3N 88.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W 110 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/1200Z 36.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1200Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND


120 kts is 140 mph..........Category 4


So I say a Cat 3/4 at landfall.....125 mph-135 mph

[jlauderdal]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 15
Tuesday September 14, 2004 2PM
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan has weakened just slightly today, due mainly to an eyewall replacement cycle and A LITTLE BIT OF DRY AIR. However, reports from Aircraft Recon indicates the pressure is down one millibar to 931 mb and the winds are getting stronger.

I have just extended my track. I still have it coming in near the border of Alabama and Mississippi and have it then being moved northeast.

As for intensity, the shear is to lessen, there is not too much dry air, and the hurricane should maintain it's intensity, if not even get a little bit stronger as it crosses over warm gulf waters. In any case, I am forecasting 140 mph up until the coast, and 145 mph at landfall due to some possible intensification.

12 HRS-- 25.0N-- 87.8 W-- 120 kt
24 HRS-- 26.3 N-- 88.1 W-- 120 kt
36 HRS-- 29.0 N-- 88.2 W-- 125 kt
48 HRS-- 31.2 N-- 87.9 W-- 100 kt (INLAND)
72 HRS-- 34.6 N-- 87.0 W-- 70 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 36.2 N-- 85.0 W-- 45 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 38.8 N-- 82.8 W-- 30 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

are you preparing a floydbuster jeanne #1 forecast and grpahics?

[Anonymous]

Not until Ivan is gone.

[rbaker]

as we all know the tpc is poor on forecasting intensities of tropical systems. Why then now? It's a shot in the dark, just like the models have done on this storm for the last four days. Granted this is a forum for people to give opinions, but who is to say one is better than the other. I know most of them including you floydbuster, said it would not get past the 82 or 83 long line several days ago, but most have admitted they blew their forecast by paying to much to models and not synoptics.

[CaptinCrunch]

synoptics = STRONG CAT 4 Hurricane for NO LA. with 135-145 mph winds with guest reaching as high as 195 mph.

[canegrl04]

Given the differing opinions on intensity at landfall,I would rather er on the high side,than under estimate