NO Weather Man Channel 4.

[QueenBee]

He stated that Ivan will not make his turn to the east until after landfall.

[dennis1x1]

the media is in full riot mode now.....man that drives me crazy.

oh well....ill stop beating a deadhorse and wasting bandwidth...i apologize.

[QueenBee]

Dennis


lol

[dennis1x1]

its just that youve got to centralize at some point....and hundreds of millions of dollars and the best technology and the best minds are stationed at the NHC.....and for a 2-bit local media met to get up and state the nhc and every model is full of crap and ivan WILL, i repeat WILL not follow models but will instead hit the city im the member of the media of is out of line.

[Rob Beaux]

Hey Dennis..he had valid reasons for this, do you know somethig that the rest of us should know. He said the high was stronger than thought and will stop the eastward bend. Do you have some specialized knowledge in this area?

[WeatherNLU]

LOL! This is funny. First of all he never said it was coming to New Orleans, he said there was a chance. In case you missed it we are under something called a Hurricane Warning. Secondly, he gave very detailed synoptic reasons as to why he believed this. As you say the "million dollar" NHC has it turning NE about 20 feet before making landfall, so I am not sure what part of that statement is so different from what the NHC is putting out there. By the way, he has a meteorology degree, can you say the same? If you can't that must make your reasoning 1-bit.

[Viper54r]

its just that youve got to centralize at some point....and hundreds of millions of dollars and the best technology and the best minds are stationed at the NHC.....and for a 2-bit local media met to get up and state the nhc and every model is full of crap and ivan WILL, i repeat WILL not follow models but will instead hit the city im the member of the media of is out of line.

You go on and on about these models and their tracks...the same models which have been wrong the past 7 days, the same NHC which has to keep shifting its track west over the past 4 days. In fact, that local "2 bit met" has been dead on through out the whole period, so please get off you little high with these models.

[dennis1x1]

now that the latest nogaps (which the nola mediamet clowns use as basis for their drivel) has come into line with all the others....wonder if theyll still wonder out on that branch....


news at 11

[Jwho77]

The "NOLA...clowns" as you call them do NOT reference these models. They take the time to show potenital storm tracks based on the atmospheric conditions.

But, guess what? They also know to tell people to leave while they still can since one wobble west could mean the difference between minor winds and major catastrophe that ANYONE who knows New Orleans' vulnerability can understand.

[FritzPaul]

What Carl said was in line with the NHC forecast.

They(NHC) don't call for an eastern turn til after landfall. (Look at the 4pmCDT forecast)

[Brent]

NHC has it due north until after landfall, so he's right.

[FritzPaul]

Some people need to stay out of local threads when they haven't a CLUE whats going on here.

[donsutherland1]

Dennis1x1,

While Hurricane Ivan's eye might not cross New Orleans, TPC has New Orleans in its hurricane warning area given the storm's wind field:

...Hurricane Warning issued along the northern Gulf Coast for
extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan...

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning is issued from Grand Isle
Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New
Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the
entire warning area.

For New Orleans to be hit head-on would take only a small change in Ivan's track. I'm still thinking near Mobile but New Orleans is definitely not out of the woods just yet.

The following are tracks that would be required from Ivan's 5 pm position to make landfall in either Mobile or New Orleans:

Mobile: 350°
New Orleans: 334°

Track during the last 12 hours: 335°

I expect that Ivan will continue to gradually turn more to the north prior to landfall but if the ridging that is occurring in the wake of the departing trough is a little stronger than anticipated, a track farther to the west is very possible.

[Mattie]

Amen Don - better safe than sorry as far as NO residents are concerned.

Native New Orleanian here - been there done that -

[Sean in New Orleans]

Carl Arredondo is hardly a "two bit local weatherperson." He is one of the most respected weathermen in the country and is a part of the highest rated local newscast in the United States on Channel 4 in New Orleans. He came to WWL over 10 years ago from a primetime position at The Weather Channel. He is well known throughout the country, particulary respected and utilized with forecasting by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.