Evening Ivan forecast... slightly farther left

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Derek Ortt

Evening Ivan forecast... slightly farther left

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:44 pm

and stronger at landfall

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html
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LowMug

Re: Evening Ivan forecast... slightly farther left

#2 Postby LowMug » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:and stronger at landfall

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


Derek...I appreciate the pep talk...
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Scorpion

#3 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:46 pm

:eek: . Lets hope this spares NOLA!
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Andy_L
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#4 Postby Andy_L » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:48 pm

:eek: :( :eek: :( :eek: :( :eek: :( :eek:

HOLY CRAP
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Sanibel
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:48 pm

That's right down the mouth of Mobile Bay...
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:54 pm

graphic now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

about 35-50 miles west of Mobile Bay, but they'll still get 100+ sustained in the bay on this track.

also, any shift left means NO, and to the right means Mobile
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calidoug
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#7 Postby calidoug » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:54 pm

Sanibel, no, it's west of Mobile Bay:

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

On a positive note, dry air appears to be eating into Ivan right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Convection warming and decreasing as Ivan sucks in all that dry air that followed the trough
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Sanibel
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#8 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:58 pm

Better check your fixes. 88.1W is on the west edge of Mobile Bay...
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Guest

#9 Postby Guest » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:02 pm

So what kind of winds will Pensacola get my son live in Milton Fl
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Brent
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#10 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:03 pm

88.1 W is Mobile Bay. I'm looking at the map right now.
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#neversummer
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c5Camille

#11 Postby c5Camille » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:04 pm

Derec... that's still at my house...
please more to the east again... thanks..
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#12 Postby WeatherNLU » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:04 pm

Isn't 88.1 + 1.5 = 89.6?
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RonStallcup
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#13 Postby RonStallcup » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:05 pm

Derek,

Thanks for the information.

It's really helping me out.

Not out of danger yet.

Ron Stallcup,
Pensacola, Fla.
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rainstorm

#14 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:09 pm

major inland flooding is going to be a big issue as well
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jes
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#15 Postby jes » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:09 pm

off the top of my head I think this is more Mississippi. The NHC forcast before was on the Miss/Al line. If they say they have moved the point West then they moved into Mississippi.
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Derek Ortt

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:09 pm

the previous landfall was at 88.1, the new one is at 88.7
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Sanibel
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#17 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:14 pm

Pascagoula, Mississippi, after crashing over a barrier island named Horn Island...
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vespersparrow
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#18 Postby vespersparrow » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:17 pm

So as this thing gets nearer, say it hits Pascagoula, how bad will it be in Pensacola wind wise? And for about how long?
I know ya can't really take a chance on saying anything wrong to people, but I would just like a close guestamation if ya don't mind.
I'm a nurse and evacuating is not an option for me. I have to stick this thing out (grrrr) but I'm just wanting to know what to expect. purdy pweeze?

Thanks again.
Safety to all.
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patsmsg
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#19 Postby patsmsg » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:17 pm

I think Derek has been providing very accurate forecasts, and has been very good in explaining his reasoning.

I have not been on this board long, but I always seek his messages first.

Thanks, Derek.
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Buck
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#20 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:18 pm

Thats basically what I've been thinking it will do too.
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