ridge is north of ivan

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wx247
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#21 Postby wx247 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:27 pm

This could get interesting and scary at the same time... this favors a more western track does it not?
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#22 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:29 pm

Yep - it does...but I can't seem to totally convince myself that it will happen. Right now I think there is too much evidence that Ivan will make landfall somewhere in LA (even if the eyewall just clips the delta region). The NHC forecast track is still quite good, and only slightly further east than my thinking. Should be an interesting discussion coming up.
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#23 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:31 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Yep - it does...but I can't seem to totally convince myself that it will happen. Right now I think there is too much evidence that Ivan will make landfall somewhere in LA (even if the eyewall just clips the delta region). The NHC forecast track is still quite good, and only slightly further east than my thinking. Should be an interesting discussion coming up.


Where do you mean by landfall in LA? In my world, slightly could be extreme in nature. :wink:
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#24 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:38 pm

I mean somewhere on the Delta...I don't know that there are any towns or cities out there. Are there? Biloxi should be very close to the eye/eyewall whether Ivan follows the NHC track or if it goes further west.
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#25 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:40 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:I mean somewhere on the Delta...I don't know that there are any towns or cities out there. Are there? Biloxi should be very close to the eye/eyewall whether Ivan follows the NHC track or if it goes further west.


Thanks, Purdue - I really appreciate your insight tonight and several nights past. You really seem to focus on the facts and avoid the hype. I believe we will be on the road NW to our hotel by 4am!
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#26 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:41 pm

Good, drive safely and take care! Good luck!
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#27 Postby wx247 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:41 pm

Ixolib wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:I mean somewhere on the Delta...I don't know that there are any towns or cities out there. Are there? Biloxi should be very close to the eye/eyewall whether Ivan follows the NHC track or if it goes further west.


Thanks, Purdue - I really appreciate your insight tonight and several nights past. You really seem to focus on the facts and avoid the hype. I believe we will be on the road NW to our hotel by 4am!


Yes please be careful. Godspeed!
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#28 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:45 pm

Thanks, all, for the good wishes. Was in this same house in Camille, but only 12 then and thought it was a hoot! Story's a little different now. Nerves just don't seem to hang in there like they did 35 years ago. Knowing a lot of people are thinking of us here helps alot!!
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#29 Postby southerngale » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:15 pm

Thanks Purdue...that helps explain things. I guess because it is so hard to forecast, that just aids in confusing people like me who don't know squat...we hear so many different opinions on the same thing.

Ixolib...be careful, go far enough north and I hope your property is spared.
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