New Track...

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Sean in New Orleans
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New Track...

#1 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:50 pm

...Bob Breck says new track is same as 5:00 track...Excellent news for New Orleans!! Let's hope (for New Orleanians) that this verifies!
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#2 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:08 pm

Yep... track is the same. Right up Mobile Bay as a Cat 4. :cry:
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#3 Postby Terry » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:15 pm

It is just very hard to feel good about any Ivan track, other than concentric circles in the GOM with total collapse. (yes - impossible. )Someone is going to take a big hit. And yes, hopefully it will be in a less populated area and one that can handle large evacuations.
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#4 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:19 pm

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic ... 2053W5.gif
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#5 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:21 pm

Brent wrote:Yep... track is the same. Right up Mobile Bay as a Cat 4. :cry:


My brother lives there so I know how you feel.
I just talked to him and they are ready for the full
brunt of the storm. He has no choice but to be there
due to his job in law enforcement.
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cswitwer
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#6 Postby cswitwer » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:32 pm

Would somebody mind telling me what ya'll mean when you say you hope something 'verifies'? I haven't caught on to that term yet. Thanks!
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:37 pm

cswitwer wrote:Would somebody mind telling me what ya'll mean when you say you hope something 'verifies'? I haven't caught on to that term yet. Thanks!


Verification scores ... say for example, 4 days ago, I started a thread called 00z Tropical Guidance vs. reality ...

I progged Ivan to cross 70ºW at 14.1ºN ... the tropical model guidance were at 14.5ºN to 14.9ºN ... Ivan crossed 70ºW at 14.3ºN ...

I missed by only .2ºN (or 12 NM) in a 12 hour forecast period ... the A98E missed by 12 NM, while the BAMM and BAMD (14.9ºN) missed by 36 NM in just a 12 hour period ... those are verification scores ...

SF
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#8 Postby Terry » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:37 pm

" Verifies" basically means that what was predicted to happen (models, etc.) happens. Ex --- the predicted path of NCH or whatever "verifies."
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#9 Postby northalguy » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:40 pm

HI PLEASE EMAIL ME BACK.... SO WILL THE TRACK SHIFT BACK EAST POSSIABLE EFFECT Destin fl
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#10 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:43 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Brent wrote:Yep... track is the same. Right up Mobile Bay as a Cat 4. :cry:


My brother lives there so I know how you feel.
I just talked to him and they are ready for the full
brunt of the storm. He has no choice but to be there
due to his job in law enforcement.


We passed through there back in June on our way back from Fort Walton Beach. Went by Pensacola Beach too. I just hate to see those beautiful beaches torn up. Pensacola was so nice, no seaweed, the water was clear. :(
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