Ivan weakening

[VERMONTsnow]

Category 2 by landfall, in my opinion

[calidoug]

Looks like that dry air is getting into the core...

[Ivanova]

YOU CALL THIS WEAK ?!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Andy_L]

and this is based on??????

[Ripopgodazippa]

Don't count on it...

[Ivanova]

WTNT44 KNHC 150233
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL


11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT IVAN IS MAINTAINING 120 KT...CAT. 4...INTENSITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER
HEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE
COAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...WE
EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0233.shtml?

[dennis1x1]

doug?

wow..coming from you he must be dissipating!!

j/k.....i agree though.....until pressures stop rising and deep convection refires id call him weakening....albeit slowly.....and no bet that itll last...just making my observations about what is happening NOW.

and no ivanova...that sat loop doesnt impress me much....its what im talking about.

[Anonymous]

I dont think he is weakening persay, but hes definitely not strengthening. His structure is still too good to be weakening.

[Mello1]

doug?

wow..coming from you he must be dissipating!!

j/k.....i agree though.....until pressures stop rising and deep convection refires id call him weakening....albeit slowly.....and no bet that itll last...just making my observations about what is happening NOW.

I suspect the storm will intensify and perhaps weaken slightly by landfall, thus keeping it as a major storm...

[Cape Verde]

Category 2 by landfall, in my opinion

<P>We'll see how much that's worth. My opinion differs. And I'll support it as much as you just did.

[Ivanova]

YOU CALL THIS WEAK ?!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Well yes... for a RUSSIAN hurricane, this could be considered "weak"


*

[calidoug]

It continues to weaken. Dry air, I think.

Convection continues to warm, shrink, and get very ragged.




A shadow of its former self, even 12 hours ago.

Dry air may weaken "from the outside in", I suspect, so the core and highest winds may not reflect the extent of the problem immediately.

[dennis1x1]

yes...every frame weaker than the one before....actually going through a fairly rapid weakening right now....i suspect pressures up at least 10mb by morning if things dont turn around.

[Mello1]

I think I would go by recon data then just looking at the pics. In anycase, it's gonna be close...

[addictedfisher18]

cat. 2 my A$$, some strengthening is still possible, as well at weakening, This thing gonna do some major damage no matter what cat. it is

[dennis1x1]

recon data has shown a steady increase in pressure also......and you can call a storm by the sat pic pretty accurately...not as good as recon but if there were no recon and only sat.....we wouldnt be dead in the water by any means.

"major damage no matter what cat it is".

quote of the week....or is it weak?

[cswitwer]

Don't trust him, tho! Remember how Charley intensified so quickly before landfall!

[Seele]

Strangely, we haven't seen a max FL wind speed from recon in 6 hours.

[VERMONTsnow]

Ivan is weakening rapidly. Will be category 3 by daybreak

[VERMONTsnow]

Eye is almost occluded. Poof, Ivan's energy is leaving