Ivan weakening

[dennis1x1]

cat 3 by daybreak? hmmm....likely in reality, but not in the official advisory......


the storm is really drying out per wv sat...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-870W.jpg

[Mello1]

I see what you guys are seeing... looks like shearing is coming in from west. It's the worst I've seen it look...

[dennis1x1]

latest recon...pressure continues rise...

865
URNT12 KNHC 150345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/0308Z
B. 25 DEG 07 MIN N
87 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2532 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 329 DEG 110 KT
G. 241 DEG 17 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 13 C/ 3062 M
J. 19 C/ 3071 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C45
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 47
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z


also..no update of flight winds in over six hours......im not a conspiracy theorist but me thinks that winds are nowhere near advisory level right now.

[jes]

Thanks so much for the good news. Maybe now I can sleep tonight. The news people on TV make is seem like we will all perish soon and I am just dead tired.

[Mello1]

latest recon...pressure continues rise...

865
URNT12 KNHC 150345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/0308Z
B. 25 DEG 07 MIN N
87 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2532 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 329 DEG 110 KT
G. 241 DEG 17 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 13 C/ 3062 M
J. 19 C/ 3071 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C45
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 47
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z


also..no update of flight winds in over six hours......im not a conspiracy theorist but me thinks that winds are nowhere near advisory level right now.

Oh you don't think that they are keeping that out of the public's eye do you? [/sarcasm]

[dennis1x1]

yep jes..good news....and storms have a much harder time coming back after dry air events than they do just shearing events....

and plus conditions were forecast to be even less favorable in 24 hours...hopefully this trend continues.

[Matthew5]

Dry air is wraping around the southwestern quad...That is getting into the storm...The wind field will spread out even more with time because the storm is unfolding/wraping its self. With time this storm could rewrap its self by moisting up the Atmosphere around it?

[dennis1x1]

yep...the first sign of leveling off and possibly restrenghtening would be a flareup of deep convection that wraps around......the opposite is happening right now.......but that can change in a hurry if conditions allow it.

[Lockhart]

It looks like the coast may be catching a surprising break just like the Eastern Florida coast did with Frances, although Ivan's moving too quickly to weaken *that* much before landfall. Still, category 2 sure would look a *lot* better than category 4.

[gkrangers]

Amazing how everyone was saying Cat4/5 landfall earlier today, but now it'll be lucky to be Cat 2.

Also...they may keep the winds high just so people don't see Cat 3 and decide to stay in a surge area just because it "weakened" a little.

[flashflood1998]

yeah guys, please continue to try as hard as possible to minimize the strength of the storm with your posts! this way, you might be able to convince a borderline coastal resident to stay put instead of evacuating their home becuase it's all being inflated by the media, or better yet, some big NHC conspriacy. then, tommorow, when a strong CAT3 or worse comes rolling in, you can simply say.. "oh, well, i was wrong" while lives are put at risk.

we're talking about a massive CAT4 storm, less than 24 hours before it hits a highly populated area of the US. why the need to push the weakening, especially when you put folks like jes at ease when she should be getting the hell out? what is wrong with anticipating something worse than it may be, if it saves lives?

[mobilebay]

cat 3 by daybreak? hmmm....likely in reality, but not in the official advisory......


the storm is really drying out per wv sat...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-870W.jpg

You must have stayed at a Holiday Inn express last night.
just teasing. Ivan looked simular last night but then started to wrap back up again. Wonder if it could be a ERC. However, there has been a steady rise in pressure . About 2MB per hour over the last three hours.

[frankthetank]

I know Larry Cosgrove this morning had said Ivan would weaken and then regain some of his strength before landfall...just something i thought i would add....

[calidoug]

It's not an ERC. The storm is choking on all the dry air.

[clueless newbie]

yeah guys, please continue to try as hard as possible to minimize the strength of the storm with your posts! this way, you might be able to convince a borderline coastal resident to stay put instead of evacuating their home becuase it's all being inflated by the media, or better yet, some big NHC conspriacy. then, tommorow, when a strong CAT3 or worse comes rolling in, you can simply say.. "oh, well, i was wrong" while lives are put at risk.

we're talking about a massive CAT4 storm, less than 24 hours before it hits a highly populated area of the US. why the need to push the weakening, especially when you put folks like jes at ease when she should be getting the hell out? what is wrong with anticipating something worse than it may be, if it saves lives?

What is wrong with saying it as it is? Ivan has not looked that bad for a looong time - before Grenada, actually. Even last night when he was very squezzed from one side, there was plenty of deep convection refiring. Now he just seems to be slowly drying out. And he will have to deal with the dry air all the way to the landfall.

People will start to believe media/NHC conspiracy when they see an abviously weakening storm and everybody pretends that it is Cat4/5. They don't need somebody on this board saying 'it is weakening right now' for that.

Let's just be happy that he is weakening, acknowledge that it might be just a temporary trend, but do not wishcast him back to Cat5 status.

[Kilgore Trout]

yeah guys, please continue to try as hard as possible to minimize the strength of the storm with your posts! this way, you might be able to convince a borderline coastal resident to stay put instead of evacuating their home becuase it's all being inflated by the media, or better yet, some big NHC conspriacy. then, tommorow, when a strong CAT3 or worse comes rolling in, you can simply say.. "oh, well, i was wrong" while lives are put at risk.

Excellent post. Until the weakening is confirmed, its a good idea to heed what your local emergency management folks are telling you.

[Ivanova]

Granted I am a newbie... but I neither see the dry air... nor
Ivan weakening... however... you might be a little weak too...
if you had just given birth


*

[WeatherNLU]

Is Ivan weakening some? YES

Is a 934MB hurricane anything to play around with? NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[flashflood1998]

clueless newbie... the folks here describing what they see as weakening are not "telling it like it is", they are giving their opinions, based on various things that may or may not be valid.

the reason i even wrote what i did is because it's common just before landfall for people to pop up on this board and start posting dissenting predictions, and claiming how inept and unreliable the NHC is. i just think it's in poor taste to do this so late in the game. sure, they have every right to post what they want, but i hope people in the affected areas stick with emergency management, as kilgore stated above.

[calidoug]

Who's bashing the NHC? The storm is significantly weaker based on satellite presentation, and I expect future recon and NHC information to confirm this.