Somebody, anybody, PLEASE!

[soonertwister]

Show me where the dry air is getting entrained into Ivan.

Better yet, show me how Ivan is headed toward Mobile, or preferably points to the east of there?

Don't just wishcast, it's way to late for that. Show me concrete evidence that my worries are just that.

Frankly, I'm feeling a little bleak right now. But all you optimists out there, show me what I don't understand. I'm not feeling good at all right now.

Maybe it's just indigestion....

I may just go away for a few days. Once I had the opportunity to take photographs of the aftermath of an F4 tornado. I could not get the nerve up to take one picture of people in such anguish and delirium.

So tell me please, where is Ivan supposed to go?

[mobilebay]

The only proof I have is that of the three model runs at 00z so for. The GFS,NOGAPS,CMC all put it in the exact same place. OVer MOBILE. It has been this way with the models for about five straight runs now.

[PTPatrick]

All I can say is I hope it is. It less a little raggedy. But if this landfall takes place over jackson county or harrison county mississippi...I got troubles...they are saying up to 20 feet here on this bayou...my house is 8 feet up on pilings, and 10 above tide...so if we get water...ALL of East jackson county is in deep doo doo

[soonertwister]

I only know what my eyes tell me. My eyes tell me that Ivan is west of guidance. I'm sure that surprises everyone.

And as far as the dry air entrainment theory goes - good luck. No dry air has come within 30 miles of the core in the last 12 hours.

A whole lot of people are blowing smoke with this storm and I'm not in the least afraid to say it. Either **** or get off the pot. We have zero more time for vapors around here or anywhere else.

Hell is upon us.

[Stormcenter]

I only know what my eyes tell me. My eyes tell me that Ivan is west of guidance. I'm sure that surprises everyone.

And as far as the dry air entrainment theory goes - good luck. No dry air has come within 30 miles of the core in the last 12 hours.

A whole lot of people are blowing smoke with this storm and I'm not in the least afraid to say it. Either **** or get off the pot. We have zero more time for vapors around here or anywhere else.

Hell is upon us.

Ivan will hook to the right don't worry. He's on schedule. Don't stress out looking at every new satellite loop. Are you from La.?

[mobilebay]

Even with Ivan hitting Biloxi/Mobile area , New Orleans is going to get rocked tommorow Evening/night. Trust me. Be ready over there.

[Greg]

You're not giving any details about your ability to endure the situation, but judging by your distress, I would say that you don't feel safe. Trust your instinct, don't ignore it.

[TSmith274]

Well, our local meteroligists are pointing to upper level winds moving west to east out of Texas and along the Louisiana coastline. They're saying that this is what MAY nudge Ivan just enough to move it east of here. They're not even mentioning that trough anymore. Apparently, it's not gonna get here in time.

[wxwatcher2]

Be Safe.
Ivan is a DANGEROUS hurricane.
Storm surge will be more than that part of the coast has experienced in many many years and the winds of possibly 140 mph sustained with higher gusts will do some big time damage within 100 miles of where the eye comes ashore.

If you feel unsafe in your present location Please for your sake MOVE to higher ground well inland from the coast.

God Speed to all in harms way.

[soonertwister]

Ivan will hook to the right don't worry. He's on schedule. Don't stress out looking at every new satellite loop. Are you from La.?

I hereby nominate you for the ignorant statement of the moment.

What, me we worry? I'm not in Dachau, are you?

[flightpath]

I'm all boarded up here and also boarded up elderly couple a block over, hopefully will not have to leave but will decide at about 6am tommorrow. Has the forward speed of the storm increased? Might need to decide sooner...

[soonertwister]

flightpath, you are cleared for takeoff. Don't tarry.

[Lockhart]

Mobilebay--it looks as though your constant fears are finally being realized. Let us hope that the observation of weakening is correct, for your sake and for that of all your neighbors. All the best.

[MWatkins]

The chances of seeing a hook to the right diminish after each subsequent wobble west.

It is not going to matter much where the center comes in exactly. This will be the worst US landfall...no questions about it...since Andrew.

If you are in a evac area and are reading this now...get the heck out while you can.

MW

[mobilebay]

Mobilebay--it looks as though your constant fears are finally being realized. Let us hope that the observation of weakening is correct, for your sake and for that of all your neighbors. All the best.

Thanks . Yes I remember last Friday night a poster come on and said that I was the biggest wishcaster on the board, because I said I didn't like the current settup. I thought this would be a GOM event. Well, he stated and I Quote "I don't care how much you want Ivan to come to mobile, IT WILL NOT.NO WAY" . I wish they had not deleted that thread I would post it now. Thanks for your wishes.

[LowMug]

The chances of seeing a hook to the right diminish after each subsequent wobble west.

It is not going to matter much where the center comes in exactly. This will be the worst US landfall...no questions about it...since Andrew.

If you are in a evac area and are reading this now...get the heck out while you can.

MW

in 6 hrs I am out...

by the way since the advisory to the latest RECON fix

it is

25.1N 87.2W
25.11N 87.33W

Wobble?

[addictedfisher18]

I dont know much about these storms, but say it does go in towards the se tip of la or east of that in miss. what should we expect here in mobile

[LowMug]

I dont know much about these storms, but say it does go in towards the se tip of la or east of that in miss. what should we expect here in mobile

the worst case scenario for Mobile...NE quadrant...

The Water Street sign in downtown Mobile will be under water...there will be no pictures of it like there was during Georges

[Matthew5]

Earlier it was pulling in dry air off the southwest quad...Which was the same reason why Lili fall apart...But over the last few frames the cdo has gotten a little bit better...With more reds appearing near the eye/with tighter eye??? They are 400 in 430 frames at Nrl...I'm going to stick my head out. In I'm going to say that the warm water in this eddy coming up will likely keep this storm together...The outflow channel caused by the shear to the north is helping to channel the storm at this time. In another note is the water it is going over at this minute is slightly cooler?(25 to 26c) That eddy is over 85 degrees coming up...Mw what do you think?

[LowMug]

The chances of seeing a hook to the right diminish after each subsequent wobble west.

It is not going to matter much where the center comes in exactly. This will be the worst US landfall...no questions about it...since Andrew.

If you are in a evac area and are reading this now...get the heck out while you can.

MW

in 6 hrs I am out...

by the way since the advisory to the latest RECON fix

it is

25.1N 87.2W
25.11N 87.33W

Wobble?

I stand corrected ... did the TWC just say 25.6N 87.4W?