ETA 6z--please say it's not so!!

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[caneman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/eta/06/images/eta_slp_084l.gif

Right on time for the weekend. What would a weekend be like here without one lurking?

[tronbunny]

Ummm, I'm beginning to wonder about this season.
I know that many of the Storm2K admins are in central FL.
Did any of you guys say anything that could be misinterpreted to Ma Nature?


( I mean did you ask her if she'd come out and play?)

[Guest]

Looks to be a S.Fl treat.

[Josephine96]

Central or S Fla in my opinion..

[jlauderdal]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/eta/06/images/eta_slp_084l.gif

THis is one of the scenarios. If ivan stalls out and is in the right position it will pump up the ridge instead of knocking it down. Even on an ortt track or nhc track there isnt that much real estate to work with before we are talking landfall. lots of tracks this year have been way to far right. ivan was going to be a tampa problem just a few days ago.

[otowntiger]

Ok I'll do it. "It ain't so!"

We'll see. These models are no more reliable this far out than me saying it ain't gonna happen. Just have to wait.

[PurdueWx80]

The 12Z run has it further south...and, in fact, going over Hispaniola, which would totally destroy it more than likely. Starting to wonder about all this recurving stuff....

[jlauderdal]

The 12Z run has it further south...and, in fact, going over Hispaniola, which would totally destroy it more than likely. Starting to wonder about all this recurving stuff....

i posted yesterday with the recurving stuff. that ridge is in place and ivan may even strenghten the ridge. DT at wxrisk sees that same scenario.

[PurdueWx80]

The 12Z run has it further south...and, in fact, going over Hispaniola, which would totally destroy it more than likely. Starting to wonder about all this recurving stuff....

i posted yesterday with the recurving stuff. that ridge is in place and ivan may even strenghten the ridge. DT at wxrisk sees that same scenario.

I totally agree w/ you guys then - Seriously...It is pretty obvious this ridge means business now that Ivan is expected to stall somewhere in the south. If Jeanne makes it past Hispaniola and PR, there is no doubt in my mind now that this is a GOM storm. Hope MS/AL don't have to put up w/ what FL has been going through all season. And waiting in the wings...we have Karl.

[jpigott]

are DT and wxrisk professional mets. there was a thread earlier about Ortt, just wanted to know how these 2 stack up against Ortt. Ortt seems to be calling for a N turn, while DT and wxrisk think Jeanne is going to stay under the ridge b/c Ivan will strengthen the ridge not weaken it

[jlauderdal]

are DT and wxrisk professional mets. there was a thread earlier about Ortt, just wanted to know how these 2 stack up against Ortt. Ortt seems to be calling for a N turn, while DT and wxrisk think Jeanne is going to stay under the ridge b/c Ivan will strengthen the ridge not weaken it

DT is a pro and wxrisk is his site. He didnt do very well with ivan or frances however neither did most people.

[PurdueWx80]

Derek and Joe Bastardi (sorry to compare the two) both did very well with Ivan from quite a ways out (even though JB switched for a day). Because Derek and the NWHHC have Jeanne recurving, I have to second guess the ideas of a move into the Gulf, but the ridge just looks to be too strong, especially given the forecast of a GIANT trough in the western US.

Edit: found 72 hour forecast at 200 mb from this morning's Eta...it is very early for a jet of 140+ kt to be making it that far south. That ridge should go berzerk once the trough in the NE gets outta there.

[JPmia]

what is the link for wxrisk again??

[jlauderdal]

what is the link for wxrisk again??

http://www.wxrisk.com. just read dts forecast and he is sticking with the ivan stall that will pump the ridge and drive jeanne into cent/so florida. i am more concerned for sofla that i ever was with frances. the setup is there IF jeanne survives the trip. time will tell.

[Stormsfury]

Um ... DT (wxrisk) nailed Frances landfall window from about 8-9 days out ...

[OrlandoDad]

Um ... DT (wxrisk) nailed Frances landfall window from about 8-9 days out ...

When Frances was much closer he called for it to go to Miami or even south of it when the NHC was very close to the eventual mark.

[Stormsfury]

Um ... DT (wxrisk) nailed Frances landfall window from about 8-9 days out ...

When Frances was much closer he called for it to go to Miami or even south of it when the NHC was very close to the eventual mark.

DT's speciality is the medium range, and in the MR, South Florida was always his target ... and overall, he did extremely well ... the NHC has been VERY good with tracks this year, not so much with intensity, but then again, intensity always gets everyone ...

[rbaker]

not 5 days ago which was the weekend, tpc and all the forecasters that I have read on this forum, had ivan going no further than long 82 or 83 long. Ivan is now at 88 long. That's a TPA hit almost to N.O 500 mile difference. Id say thats pretty far off. They were not anticipating that high pressure moving ivan westerly.