Ivan strengthening?

[Anonymous]

It weakens overnight, and strengthens during the day? Looks better...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[dennis1x1]

no....its not strenghtening by any objective measure.

[Anonymous]

It does have A LOT more convection, so yes it is I believe.

[Brent]

Recon reports from just a little while ago suggest it's holding steady right now.

[Thunder44]

It's certainly is not getting any weaker.

[Josephine96]

Hopefully not strengthening.. If it is.. I'd say slight chance of it getting back to Cat 5 but let's hope not

[CaptinCrunch]

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.


It's a 50-50 chance FORECAST

[dennis1x1]

the cat 5 talk is really out there at this point......a fall of 20mb in less than perfectly ideal conditions with a less than perfectly organized storm in less than 24 hours?

anyway.....until pressures stop rising......"very slow weakening" is the way to call it.

[adelphi_sky]

Strengthening, weakening, strengthening, weakening = fluctuations.

[Mello1]

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.


It's a 50-50 chance FORECAST

Okay???? I think we need to take this forecast to Las Vegas and take bets!

[CaptinCrunch]

I just love this SAT loop, NO dry entering Ivan from any point and shear maybe so 100 miles inland, notice the eye it looks like it wants to get a little bigger??


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

[HurricaneGirl]

Winds are down to 135

[CaptinCrunch]

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.


It's a 50-50 chance FORECAST

Okay???? I think we need to take this forecast to Las Vegas and take bets!

ALL BETS ARE OFF ON THIS ONE

[Josephine96]

On again Off again I guess

[CaptinCrunch]

I BET IVAN WONT GO TO FLORIDA!!

[LSU2001]

I bet we will know thursday eve. and not until
stay safe