2 hourly ivan updates

[Derek Ortt]

these are now every 2 hours and contain info regarding what is happeneing.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004.html

[Derek Ortt]

if anyone has any suggestions as to how these updates could be improved at this time, please let me know

[Terry]

Derek - I'd suggest a different format for these updates, using bullets, keeping the same formatting and ordering of topics, hitting the high points, with little dialogue. So it can be quickly skimmed.

[HurricaneQueen]

Great update, Derek. You stated no further intensification is expected-good news- but does that mean that it has already passed over the area of the "eddy" everyone has been talking about?

[Derek Ortt]

I mean it is expected to remain as a cat 4. we could see some slight intensification and I dont like what I'm seeing on the sats.

It is just passing over the eddy now. That eddy is as strong as the sats indicated

[Guest]

Andrew was a reported Cat 4 when it first hit Florida. Later they changed it to a Cat 5 way after it hit florida. Could the same thing happen with Ivan, because ivan is looking really good right now.

[Ixolib]

Hi Derek. One other suggestion I'd offer is to validate the sources of information. I imagine the quote below is directly from the Safir-Simpson Scale for a CAT 4, but in reality, there is a very high chance that the damage will not be nearly that ominous. Certainly, portions of the coast will be devastated, but highly doubtful it will result in "complete" devastation along that entire stretch.

Making this statement, in this context, may lead readers who know better to believe it's hype, thereby potentially harming the credibility of your forecast/update.

QUOTE:
"This is expected to cause the complete devastation of the coastline from Biloxi, Mississippi all the way to Panama City."

[Tracie]

I personally think you are doing a great job, Derek, and wouldn't change a thing. I'm a bit of a lurker but respect the heck out of what you do and look forward to your posts.

[jwelch5]

Having seen the coastline from Biloxi to Panama City after Hurricane Frederic in 1979, this seems to be an accurate statement. Basically, the coast was "wiped clean."

[Derek Ortt]

I am fully expecting the entire coastline to be leveled (now, just the immediate coastline mind you, similar to that in Opal when the coast was leveled from mobile to panama city)

[Ixolib]

I am fully expecting the entire coastline to be leveled (now, just the immediate coastline mind you, similar to that in Opal when the coast was leveled from mobile to panama city)

After Opal, there were numerous beachside condos and other buildings that survived the storm and remain in operation today. When I hear terms like "devastation" and "leveled", I have visions of nothing remaining, resulting in everything having to be completely rebuilt. Perhaps its just semantics?? And like any other discussion on semantics, we could probably drive this one into the ground if we were so inclined.

In any event, I belive your forecasts are great and I use them to make my plans. My wife now asks me "Well, what does Ortt say?".

[birdwomn]

Derek -

Can you compare the anticipated damage with Ivan to that of Opal? since the subject was brought up...

Or is that something that you don't wnat ot speculate on?

[GulfHills]

Thanks for the great job you do Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

Right on the immediate coastline, it may be worse than opal. Now, just offshore, things may be significantly better. It all depends upon just how strong this is and where it makes landfall

[hansa44]

bump