so was Ivan really a Cat 3? at landfall

[Josephine96]

If the NHC and recon says Cat 3.. then odds are it was a Cat 3.... Major hurricane..

[Sanibel]

Hate to admit it but the man makes a legitimate point. Hurricane Charley passed less than 14 miles from my house. Even in the small island town of North Captiva a private wind measuring device recorded a gust of 178mph. It was a privately-bought home model. It didn't break and North Captiva suffered 35% structure condemnation.

Radar made clear last night that as soon as Ivan reached the tip of the Delta he sucked in huge amounts of dry air to his south side. The Delta 'spooned' in overland air right into his core. The cyclone took a damaging structural wack from that point to landfall. I believe a valid case could be made that Ivan was in a state of collapse from the tip of the Delta to shore. Ivan's present shape furthers this happening by showing a deformed shape that is an extension of this occurrence. Wind readings were low during the landfall.

However, the damage to the barrier islands will definitely support category 3 damage from a weakening storm.

[rdcrds]

i am sorry to start such nonsense over winds but i wonder sometimes at what the NHC says winds are in storms.

So cat 3 then cat 3 so be it but they better not try and pass it off as a 4

[Pebbles]

As I recall for after Charley..the highest reported wind was 127mph and I believe the next highest gust being reported was like 10mph or something less. That was being said for the first day after he had passed...and guess who reported that. The HIRT team. Now I don't know if they found higher reports after that or not as I took a few days off from Tropics.... but that should show you the problem.

I don't think anyone here would disagree that Charley was indeed a cat 4 storm even though nobody reported 145 or 150mph sustained winds...not even gusts that high!

Every reason that has been stated here that the NHC uses to assign wind levels were also used for Charley. And I do think the damage with Ivan is going to support cat 3 winds. Recon did... pressure did. Just no one in the right place with WORKING equipment caught your report.

If you had asked "are there any reported winds of over 100mph?" no one probably would of been angry. But when boldly stating it is not cat 3..it's Cat 2 before landfal is complete...and then coming back like 6 hours later asking if it is REALLY cat 3 (even if it is nicely)... don't be surprised people are a little testy. Maybe you didn't mean to sound rude..maybe you did... I dunno. Just explaining to you why people are testy!

The matter of the fact is death toll numbers are already hinting to be higher then those reported by Charley. Damage is a heck of allot more widespread. and it's only been what...about 9 hours from landfall. This storm still has a long way to go before it is out of the picture. Don't be surprised if people feel a tad threatened or angry if any mention is made that Ivan was/is not as powerful of a storm as the NHC said it is.

[PTPatrick]

I knew this would happen...people are going to downplay it because it wasnt south FL. I dont care how much Andrew did...a lot of that was shotty construction in an area that should not have been constructed like that. People dont think the Gulf Coast is important. Just like the "there is going to be a lot of mobile homes damaged" comment. It is uncalled for. From what I have seen the damage in Baldwin and Escambia counties is very indicative of a cat 3...and it will stay that way. Cat 2's do not have pressures in the low 930s. Looking at Pensacola and hospitals with MAJOR damage...windows blown out and everything...and the fact that hospitals are generally the most solidly built structures there are...I suspect we will soon have even worse reports out of south Baldwin county. Also...cat 2's do not move cars. Cat 2's do not take out well build concrete bridges. GET A GRIP PEOPLE. This was a stronger storm than Frances. Not that hurricanes have interests in pissing contests.

[Windy]

Just to be perfectly clear:

You propose

a) Hurricane damage does not support Cat 3

b) No land based instruments show Cat 3 winds

therefore

c) Ivan had to be, at maximum, Cat 2 at landfall.

The refutations to this are straightforward. If people sound frayed in their responses to you, it's probably because there are only so many ways to state the obvious. I'll try one more way: the logical way.

For a, you are making an assumption. You have not conducted your own damage survey. You, in fact, are probably not qualified to conduct a damage survey. A damage survey has not been conducted by any official agency, therefore there is no damage survey to cite. You base your claim on what you saw on your television behind the talking heads in the storm. This is insufficient evidence to back up your claim, a.

For b, your fact is based on the erroneous presumption that land based wx stations are often, if ever, capable of registering winds in the Cat 3 rage. They are, in fact, not. Thus, your claim, b, is irrelevant, even if it is true, which you have not shown.

Thus, your conclusion, c, is not proven.

The counter argument runs somthing like this:

a) The methodology of determining landbased windspeeds through dropsonde and aircraft measurements is backed up with research, observation, and YEARS OF PRACTICE.

b) Aircraft observation alone is enough to officially class the storm a Cat 3, no further evidence is required

c) The Air Force measured Cat 3 winds upon landfall directly with aircraft and dropsondes

thus,

d) The storm was a Cat 3 upon landfall


There. It doesn't get any simpler or more straightforward than that. If you want to argue this any further, which I hope you don't, at least construct a logically sound argument.

[Matt]

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHY SO MANY ANEMOMETERS FAIL? IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY STORM YOU READ ABOUT A WIND GUST OF 100 - 150 MPH, THEN FAILURE. I KNOW THESE ARE STRONG WINDS, BUT YOU WOULD THINK BY 2004 WE COULD PRODUCE AN ANEMOMETER GUARANTEED TO THESE SPEEDS. GREAT IDEA! SOMEONE COULD BUILD A BETER MOUSETRAP AND CORNER THE WHOLE MARTKET. IS IT THE STRUCTURES THAT PEOPLE ATTACH THEM TO THAT FAIL? I CAN SEE THAT, BUT WHY HAVE ONE IF YOUR JUST GOING TO SCREW IT INTO A ROOF THAT IS BOUND TO FAIL AT ANYTHING OVER 130 MPH. WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME? I AM SCARED AND CONFUSED?

[rbaker]

i know that frances had a wind gust of 127 at port canaveral. Judging by radar which is by far best tool for seeing movements and intensity, it looks as though Ivan became ragged looking and lost its better looking eye about 50 to 60 miles from the ala coastline. So far the highest wind gust was 102 from dalphin island, probably was higher else where esp maybe between pns and mobile. Cat 3 is what I would put this storm. We will know in the next coming days what kind of damage came out.

[tronbunny]

Most are not designed to handle windspeeds above hurricane force. After all, how many locations need to measure 75mph winds?
If you were to think in terms if scale, particularly analog dial-type instruments...
why on earth would you want all that extra space taken up by numbers that may NEVR get used?
I'd rather have a dial that went up to 60mph so that my every day measurements were easier to read!
As for digital systems, the issue is with the "whirly-gig" -OK so it's a family made-up name.
The wind cups spin on a mechanism, called a bearing, some bearings consist of little balls to "glide" on. Regardless, all bearings are manufactured to their proper usage. If the bearings are designed to handle a heavy/high speed load, then they;ll in turn be heavier and won't move as easily in light breezes.
That said, I think I gave more than enough food for thought, and I don't need to ramble any further..

[PurdueWx80]

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHY SO MANY ANEMOMETERS FAIL? IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY STORM YOU READ ABOUT A WIND GUST OF 100 - 150 MPH, THEN FAILURE. I KNOW THESE ARE STRONG WINDS, BUT YOU WOULD THINK BY 2004 WE COULD PRODUCE AN ANEMOMETER GUARANTEED TO THESE SPEEDS. GREAT IDEA! SOMEONE COULD BUILD A BETER MOUSETRAP AND CORNER THE WHOLE MARTKET. IS IT THE STRUCTURES THAT PEOPLE ATTACH THEM TO THAT FAIL? I CAN SEE THAT, BUT WHY HAVE ONE IF YOUR JUST GOING TO SCREW IT INTO A ROOF THAT IS BOUND TO FAIL AT ANYTHING OVER 130 MPH. WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME? I AM SCARED AND CONFUSED?

Any particular reason to capitalize everything? Anyway, there's this all-important thing called electricity that is supplied to anemometers and weather stations. When wind gets really strong (say in a hurricane), power lines fall down. When power lines fall down, there is no electricity. When there is no electricity, instruments fail to report. It's not necessary for the instrument to break or fall down to not report. For instance, KNPA's METAR showed gusts to 98 mph before the power went out, and this was well before the eyewall went over. We have no idea how strong the winds actually got there, unless a damage survey is done.

Also, the other writer above is exactly correct in saying that a pressure in the 930's does not support a Category two storm. Even after the eye made landfall, pressures recorded by aircraft were still in the low 940's, which easily supports a strong 3/weak 4.

[Scorpion]

A Cat 2? Yeah right? Look at the damage. Frances was a Cat 2 at landfall here. The damage here isnt nearly as bad as it looks like in Pensacola.

[Sanibel]

I have no doubt it was a category 3 storm. The 20 foot plus surge that took out the I-10 bridge had to be transported by serious energy.

What makes me suspect however is seeing people make very intelligent arguments with a good scientific basis that contain an obvious dose of denial. For instance, Pensacola has several military-type installations that have back-up power and hurricane-rated measuring devices that didn't record extremely high winds. I'm sorry, but until you show me a category 3 wind from one of those stations I have to concede the original poster's argument. For goodness' sakes a North Captiva private device measured a 178mph gust during Charley!

[Matt]

I don't think the people who went through this storm really care whether it was a cat 2 or cat 3 ar any ct for that matter. What they care about is recovery. I couldn't care less what cat Frances was . What I care about is getting electricity back, having clean water, getting food and ice form my family, fixing my house, cleaning my yard, and doing whatever I can to help others who have endured worse loss than I.

YES, I AGREE!
BUT, YOU KNOW WHAT? THE PERSON THAT ASKED, CARES. I LOVE HOW EVERYONE IS ALL OVER rdcrds FOR QUESTIONING THE INTENSITY. I HOPE NO ONE BASHES ME FOR THIS BUT HERE GOES:

I AGREE WITH rdcrds ON QUESTIONING THIS. PERSONALLY I BELEIVE THIS WAS A CAT 3 STORM. FROM RECON AND SUCH, BUT WIND SPEEDS ON LAND HAVE COME IN SLOWER THAN I EXPECTED. I KNOW THE RECON SAID CAT 3 AND I AGREE. WHAT IS A PROBLEM IS THE EVERYONE HAS ATTACKED THIS PERSON QUESTIONING THE INTENSITY. IF RECON SAID THIS WAS A CAT 2 AND rdcrds SAID: "I BELEIVE THIS WAS A CAT 3" HE/SHE WOULD GET A POSITIVE RESPONSE, AND I DON'T THINK ANYONE CAN DISPUTE THAT. JUST LOOK AT SOME OF THE THREADS ON GASTON.

AFTER 9/11 WE CAME UP WITH THE TERROR ALERT LEVELS. I'M SURE EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT THIS IS. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT TOOL IN PROTECTING OUR COUNTRY AND US. BUT, THE TERROR ALERT LEVEL IS TAKEN LESS SERIOUSLY, BY THE POPULATION AS A WHOLE, THAN IT WAS 2 YEARS AGO (OR WHENEVER IT WAS CREATED). THIS IS A FACT. I KNOW MANY PEOPLE TAKE IT JUST AS SERIOUS NOW, AS THEY DID IN 2002. BUT, THE POPULATION AS A WHOLE DOES NOT. I KNOW THE TERROR LEVEL IS NOT AS EASY TO MEASURE AS THE WIND SPEED OF A HURRICANE, BUT HERE IS THE POINT:

IF THE NHC START TO SAY CAT 2 HURRICANES ARE CAT 3 HURRICANES (NOT TO SAY THAT HAPPENED HERE) AND NO ONE QUESTIONS THEM, IT DEFEATS THE WHOLE PURPOSE OF THE S.S. SCALE. EVEN THE NHC CAN SCREW UP SOME TIME (ANDREW). AND WHEN THEY DO -OR- THINK THEY DO, IT IS OUR JOB TO QUESTION THEM. THIS DOES NOT JUST MEAN RAISING A STORM FROM A CAT 2 TO A CAT 3 AND SO ON. WE MUST LOOK AT THIS FROM BOTH ANGLES.

SO rdcrds, AND THE PEOPLE WHO POLITLY EXPLAINED WHY THEY DISAGREE. I COMMEND YOU. THE PEOPLE WHO ATTACKED rdcrcs AND ACCUSED HIM/HER OF "TROLLING". SHAME ON YOU!

[gratefulnole]

Pensacola 50 miles east of landfall took a devasting hit. They have extensive damage and they have the county under 24 hour curfew right now. The I-10 bridge with spans completely knocked out is 15 miles inland over the north part of the bay, not even close to the beach. Hwy 90 is also washed out into Pensacola so you can't even get into Penscola from the east right now. From those that I have heard form it is noticably worst than both Opal and Frederick for the Perdido Key, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, and Pensacola Beach areas.

[Innotech]

I believe it was Cat 3. Its very difficult to determine exactly how fast the iwnds are in such a large storm, especially if the fastest winds are not actually flown into. In a hurricane, the strongest winds are just so compact it is hard to tell.

[Matt]

DOES ANYONE KNOW WHY SO MANY ANEMOMETERS FAIL? IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY STORM YOU READ ABOUT A WIND GUST OF 100 - 150 MPH, THEN FAILURE. I KNOW THESE ARE STRONG WINDS, BUT YOU WOULD THINK BY 2004 WE COULD PRODUCE AN ANEMOMETER GUARANTEED TO THESE SPEEDS. GREAT IDEA! SOMEONE COULD BUILD A BETER MOUSETRAP AND CORNER THE WHOLE MARTKET. IS IT THE STRUCTURES THAT PEOPLE ATTACH THEM TO THAT FAIL? I CAN SEE THAT, BUT WHY HAVE ONE IF YOUR JUST GOING TO SCREW IT INTO A ROOF THAT IS BOUND TO FAIL AT ANYTHING OVER 130 MPH. WOULD SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME? I AM SCARED AND CONFUSED?

Any particular reason to capitalize everything? Anyway, there's this all-important thing called electricity that is supplied to anemometers and weather stations. When wind gets really strong (say in a hurricane), power lines fall down. When power lines fall down, there is no electricity. When there is no electricity, instruments fail to report. It's not necessary for the instrument to break or fall down to not report. For instance, KNPA's METAR showed gusts to 98 mph before the power went out, and this was well before the eyewall went over. We have no idea how strong the winds actually got there, unless a damage survey is done.

Also, the other writer above is exactly correct in saying that a pressure in the 930's does not support a Category two storm. Even after the eye made landfall, pressures recorded by aircraft were still in the low 940's, which easily supports a strong 3/weak 4.

I USE CAPS FOR WORK, SO I JUST GO WITH IT. NO YELL TYPING OR ANYTHING

[Pebbles]

Question was "so was Ivan really a cat 3? at landfall"

Answer is
http://news.yahoo.com/p/v?u=/ap_av/2004 ... f=53746353",650,450

[Anonymous]

I'm waiting to get a phone call from my neighbor in Ellsanore Al (Baldwin Co) north of Foley where I just built a small get a way home. But so far from I see I am relieved. The damage doesn't appear anywhere near as bad as I thought it would be. This could change as more info comes in.

Looks like a big flood more than a huge dangerous wind event. As well as numerous dangerous tornados.

It looks like a very large storm surge, this is sort of thing that did in old - old I-10 most likely and not wind. Judging from the reporters standing in Gulf Shores (Baldwin CO) at the edge of the flooded surge area about a mile inland I just don't see the massive building and tree damage I expected to see thankfully. I see a very severe flood and the direct coast line hit bad on the barrier islands but the tree damage a mile inland is not large.
When I was in Hugo the pine trees split by the thousands a hundred miles inland, I don't see that so far where they are covering the storm. Most of the buildings and the roller coaster at the water park look in fairly good shape. So far I don't see cat 3 damage overall in Baldwin Co, or Pensacola. The brick church looks more like a tornado then a hurricane and the other buildings are not severely as torn apart, why??? A tornado is why.

The reports from Mobile County are even better with most statement saying the SW part of the storm fell apart.

It looked liked like the eye fell apart right before landfall. As for pressure, Frances retained a very low pressure even after entering the gulf and heading north. The sort of low pressure that would have supported a far more dangerous storm than Frances as a tropical storm. Another recent storm that had a hurricane low pressure but wasn't at the time was Gabrille in the gulf about this date in 2001.

So, while bad it seemed it would be worse. Still very bad and many have died. There is yet more to be reported from small towns,


The remarks about no one caring about the gulf coast are inmature, & just plain silly. The "poor me" syndrome is moronic and not true everyone cares about what happens to any portion of the Country regardless of weather mishap. Why do people have such bad self esteem problems? This isn't the forum for venting such metal distress, this is about tropical cyclones.

Mike

[Kilgore Trout]

I USE CAPS FOR WORK, SO I JUST GO WITH IT. NO YELL TYPING OR ANYTHING

All Caps are considered rude and are very difficult to read. Nothing personal against you, but I will often not bother reading someone who types in all caps like that.

[logybogy]

Watch this video and tell me this storm was a Cat 2 at landfall.

I dare you.

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/video/w ... props=noad