My first TC forecast.... Jeanne #1

[Anonymous]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Forectast #1
DISC: I am NOT the NHC, listen to THEM!
Date: 9/16/2004

Satellite observations show that Jeanne has nearly pushed offshore of the Domincan Republic, showing half the eye offshroe and half the eye onshore. It has taken a northward wobble over the past couple of hours, but motion should continue in a west to west-northwest direction. Convection is starting to refire in spotty areas around the storm, but little deep convection is near the center. This is expected with land interaction, and until it goes completely offshore it will not strengthen.

Jeanne has held up well over the Domincan Republic, and maintains an amazing structure for a tropical storm. This suggest that Jeanne will immediately strengthen to a 65 knot hurricane once re-emerging. An eye is discernable, and there are many banding features. One thing of interest is the deep convection to the ESE of the center of circulation. It has persisted incredibly and may need to be watched for separate development (although it appears unlikely). Due to Jeanne's amazing satellite presentation, I will bring this to a 80 knot hurricane within 60 hours (Due to land interaction with the DR).

Motion will continue to be wnw (roughly 285-305) over the next couple of days with a ridge maintaining itself to the north of the system. I do not buy the NHC forecast of a turn to the north, as I am in agreement with a new ridge building over the east coast in the next 4-5 days. This ridge should push Jeanne in the general direction of South Florida over the next few days, with all points from northern Cuba to Melbourne in a cone for impact. Once into the gulf, the future track is uncertain.

Coordinates:
INITIAL: 19.0 N 69.3 W (Near the northeastern DR coast) 55 KT
12HR: 19.6 N 71.0 W (Near the northern DR coast) 60 KT
24HR: 20.4 N 73.3 W (Near the northwestern DR coast) 60 KT
36HR: 21.5 N 74.9 W (Approaching southern Bahamas) 65 KT
48HR: 22.6 N 76.0 W (Near the Bahamas) 75 KT
60HR: 23.4 N 77.1 W (Near the Bahamas) 80 KT
72HR: 24.5 N 78.0 W (Over Grand Bahama) 75 KT
84HR: 25.3 N 79.2 W (Over Gulf Stream) 85 KT
96HR: 26.0 N 81.1 W (Over S Florida) 85 KT
108HR: 26.6 N 82.3 W (Exiting Florida near Sarasota) 55 KT
120HR: 27.1 N 84.0 W (In Eastern GOM) 65 KT

I am bad with coordinates so read the parenthesis for a better idea.
Comments?

[Anonymous]

Well Jeanne is offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg