18z GFS South Florida landfall

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Vortex
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18z GFS South Florida landfall

#1 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:38 pm

The 18z ETA also has trended much furthur west and implies a landfall in South florida.


18z gfs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:39 pm

Hmm.. I wonder what else is going on with the models..
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Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:39 pm

Joy, just what Florida needs :roll:
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#4 Postby Deenac813 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:40 pm

Yikes! I do not like the look of that! :grr:
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#5 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:40 pm

LOL...it's after it sits off the NC coast for days then curves back SW as Ivan dissipates and the ridge catches her. I think some form of this scenario is possible, although I'm not sure it'll take that long. Also, if you watch the Eta loop at 500 mb, it implies that the storm actually wants to recurve up the FL coast as Ivan creates a weakness.
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:40 pm

According to the models on the Mid Atlantic site.. 2 models take the storm into Fla and 1 has it just missing the coast..

This could get interesting..
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rainstorm

#7 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:43 pm

where did ivan go? is that it way out in the central atlantic? that model seems bogus
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#8 Postby ericinmia » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:45 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

What to watch for...

1. Ivan continues northward, at any speed.... above lets say 3-5mph
-the ridge will hold, and Jeanne will not turn northward, when or where it was predicted.

2. Ivan recurves south, or stalls south of the carolina's.
-The ridge will be weakened enough to allow Jeanne to take a more northerly route sooner.

Whatch those things, whatch how each model handles those things, and you will know the secrets to Jeannes track... :)
-Eric

EDIT:
Also of note.... The GFS puts Ivan back into the central GOM... lol
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#9 Postby HurricaneQueen » Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:54 pm

The GFS 500 model takes over a week to reach S Fl. Off course, it takes a rather circular route but that seems to be way off the time line for the other models.
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#10 Postby ericinmia » Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:00 pm

That is one reason why i am discounting the GFS as of right now, not in total on what might happen, but based on how it is acomplishing it, and the features that are occuring in it, that are most likely blantently wrong.
-Eric
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#11 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:40 pm

LMAO.... :double:
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#12 Postby crice » Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:52 pm

So Jeanne could conceivably impact the two areas ot the state (Miami-Dade/Broward,N. Central) that have, so far, escaped the worst of the other four storms.
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#13 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:58 pm

Florida learn how to vote! You see what happens?!


Just kidding but this is getting ridiculous...
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#14 Postby crice » Thu Sep 16, 2004 7:12 pm

Stop forcing everyone over 70 to move to S.Fla. and the elections will go smoother. (joking).
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#15 Postby hesperhys » Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:23 pm

18z GFS South Florida landfall
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 18z ETA also has trended much furthur west and implies a landfall in South florida.


Let me guess... as a CAT 5, too, right...? keep fishing...
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Guest

#16 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:49 pm

Bring it on . No worries be happy. Frances tried hard but to no avail
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:59 pm

That's a Betsy-like track:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.avno.2004091618.east_coast.single.gif

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at196503.gif
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#18 Postby rainydaze » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:21 pm

The ballot WAS confusing!!! It really was. :cry:

OK, back to tropics.......About Jeanne coming to SOFLA.....SHHH... :dont:
....she might hear you......back away slowly....do not make eye contact......


:raincloud:


Is Jeanne going to SOFLA ?
:yesno:
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#19 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 9:23 pm

:rofl:
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