2 AM JEANNE -- 70 MPH... RECON IN JEANNE SHORTLY...

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 14a


Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 17, 2004



...Jeanne hugging the north coast of Hispaniola...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the island of
Hispaniola from le mole St Nicholas Haiti eastward to Santo
Domingo.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...
Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San
Salvador.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.

At 2 am AST...0600z....the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
estimated near latitude 19.4 north... longitude 69.9 west...on the
north coast of the Dominican Republic in the vicinity of Cabo
Frances viejo and about 65 miles...100 km...north-northwest of
Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Jeanne has been drifting westward during the past couple of hours
but it should begin to move toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
...9 km/hr...with a slight increase in forward speed during the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center will continue to move
near or along the north coast of Hispaniola for the next several
hours...and be near the southeastern Bahamas later today.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 70 mph...110 km/hr...
with gusts to hurricane force. A reconnaissance plane is expected
to be in the area shortly. Jean has the potential to regain
hurricane strength after it moves off the island of Hispaniola.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km
from the center. There has been several reports of tropical storm
force winds along the South Coast of Hispaniola...and Grand Turk
recently reported winds of 40 mph...65 km/hr.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic today.

Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. A
rainband trailing Jeanne is located just to the south and southeast
of Puerto Rico and it has the potential to produce additional
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...over
portions of that island.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic tonight.

Repeating the 2 am AST position...19.4 N... 69.9 W. Movement
drifting westward. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum
central pressure... 990 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am AST.

Forecaster Avila

[chris_fit]

let us know when it comes in. i wanna stay up for this one.

[Thunder44]

It's in there already, just no vortex message yet.

[Matthew5]

What Jenne maybe doing to the DR/Hati might be bad enough to retire the name...Because a tropical distrabance in May killed 3,300 people. If this is any where near that this will be retired.

[yoda]

I saw this on NHC... is this from earlier or a new one?

000
URNT12 KNHC 161024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/1024Z
B. 18 DEG 39 MIN N
68 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2954 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 107 DEG 88 KT
G. 025 DEG 12 NM
H. 985 MB
I. 9 C/ 3095 M
J. 12 C/ 3079 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF984 0311A JEANNE OB 24
MAX FL WIND 88 KT N QUAD 1021Z.

[chris_fit]

think thats old

[ericinmia]

Storm JEANNE: Observed By AF #984
Storm #11 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, September 16, 2004 6:24:00 AM
Position of the center: 18° 39' N 68° 15' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2954m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 88KT (101.2mph) From 107°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 12nm (13.799999999999999miles) From Center At Bearing 025°
Minimum pressure: 985mb (29.09in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being C20
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

It is from early yestterday morning...
-Eric

[yoda]

Ah ok. Thanks for clearing that up Eric.

[ericinmia]

np, this imo should have been a hurricane at the 11pm
-Eric

[yoda]

Any idea when the next vortex will come out?

I agree that this is Hurricane Jeanne right now. Do you agree with the new trop models?

[Thunder44]

There was a radar fix earlier with one of the obs that was just north of Dominican Republic coast at 19.8N 69.8W. The center is back over water.

[chris_fit]

cmon reconnnn

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 170747
97779 07474 60196 69819 30600 15048 07079 /3070
RMK AF866 0411A JEANNE OB 09
NEAR THE CENTER, INDISTINGUISHABLE ON RADAR

Indistinguishable on radar? That has said before it had good radar presentation.

[yoda]

URNT11 KNHC 170747
97779 07474 60196 69819 30600 15048 07079 /3070
RMK AF866 0411A JEANNE OB 09
NEAR THE CENTER, INDISTINGUISHABLE ON RADAR

Indistinguishable on radar? That has said before it had good radar presentation.

Wha? Indistinguishable on radar? What does that mean?

[Matthew5]

It is out of radar range!

[MBismyPlayground]

It is out of radar range!

Exactly what does that mean?? I am confused.

[Matthew5]

The radar can't see the "eye"...Here is the link
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... tjua.shtml

[chris_fit]

they have radar on the planes

i think they meant they cant find the center using their own radar

[Derek Ortt]

that means we are seeing a mountain interaction and weakening