NJN WEATHER CENTER
720 PM THURS SEPT 16TH 2004
I have issued a 2nd forecast for the day because I missed the 7pm bus and am stuck here another hour
Hurricane Jeanne weakend to a tropical storm as of 5pm and is still currently over the DR. At least her center is. That could cause some further weakening but a WNW track is expected to resume, possibly in the next 24 hours.
The NHC's official forecast now calls for a landfall in SC. I still don't buy this scenario. Mainly because if the high pressure system builds in.. It will keep Jeanne on a W by NW track throughout the period with no sharp turn to the right, or due north.
Jeanne actually looked impressive with her eye over land.. and some would argue she still does. She's holding up well for a strong tropical storm.
After Jeanne exits the DR and enters the Bahamian Island chain is when the alerts on the SE coast will begin. I don't mean watches and warnings, I mean news broadcasts telling everyone and their dog to get prepared lol.
If Jeanne can finally leave the DR she will have a chance to restrengthen possibly as far as a Cat 2 hurricane. How she tracks across the Bahamas may determine that.
The factors deciding whether Jeanne turns are still the same, Ivan, the high and a potential trough. Ivan was originally forecast to stall.. but because of how much he's bookin'.. that would almost have to mean Ivan would have to slam his breaks on to do so.. Ivan's quick exit could cause for the High pressure to build further west, suppresing Jeanne to the South.
If the high isn't as strong.. or if the apparent approaching trough is stronger than anticipated.. that could cause Ivan to skirt or miss Florida and head northbound. For now however, the NJN forecast remains Jeanne being on a WNW track, with a possible landfall in Florida by the end of the period.
Remember.. track positions and wind speeds are subject to errors.
Here is the projected Jeanne path in our eyes..
Rest of Tonight: Hugging the DR before WNW movement resumes. More weakening but not significant. Max Winds: 60 mph
Friday: Should be back over water, just north of Haiti.. Strengthening may resume. Max Winds: 70 mph
Saturday: In the Central Bahamas on the Western side. Maybe a little stronger. {Possible watches for Fla} Max Winds: 80 mph
Sunday: Watches possibly changed to warnings. Could be a bit more stronger. Max Winds: 85 mph. Approaching coast of Florida.
Monday: Approaching Fla coast and maybe even making landfall.. Point is still TBD. Max Winds: 90-95 mph
This forecast does not include the possibility of rapid strengthening and is as always subject to change.
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used to making decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.
As always.. comments are welcomed..
