Bastardi on the Jeanne setup for 1947 NO cane/Betsy/Andrew

#1 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:13 am

Now I live here and don't want people thinking I'm -removed- anything my way. I wouldn't even make that call just due to impartiality that is sorely lacking on every hurricane fan site. I don't even agree with Joe that the setup will verify. My way of thinking would be IF Jeanne was to cross FL or the Straits, it would be slow but not make it as far west as here. That's a 8-10 day out opinion. Jeanne could easily be long gone by then anyway. But he draws some interesting LA parallels, so I figured I'd throw out a legal synopsis for anyone interested:

1) (Previous Idea) - Similar H20 temperature profile & neutral-slightly negative SOI to his analog 2002.

2) Galveston record high (last set in 2002, Isidore shows up a week later)

3) He likes a cross between 1947 and Betsy for a track at this point.

4) His pulse idea of the increments of 3-6 degrees west with each landfall as the SW Atlantic High backs to its summer crescendo.

5) Models have been north and right biased all year in their early phases. Corrections would be farther west, but even if Ivan gets north of 30 and hit N FL, the circulation would back SW. Joe doesn't see it getting above 27, and the turn to the west (painfully slow) is not for another 5 or 6 days.

6) He likes Jeanne at Cat 2 or 3 when it turns west (which means look out in C&S FL).

7) Accomplished via Ivan weakening and splitting (as I wondered yesterday if that was why the models showed the loop-d-loop) and backing Ivan's upper feature dives SW (trof split) into the Gulf. The eastern ridge is powerful. Ivan's upper remains change the windflow in the Western Gulf. The ridge in the SW builds and bridges NE overtop of the mid-Altantic States (similar pattern from the 3 storms named in the title).

8) Said pattern argues for storms (when there) to move west into the central Gulf.
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So look - yeah, I pay my $14.95 a month for Accupro from June through October. I think it's WAAAAAAAAY to early to put any creedence into Bastardi's take, but obviously it's something to take notice of. He said yesterday he sees all the scenarios (including destruction at the hands of Hispaniola, a Carolinas hit, etc.), but he stuck with his early ideas for now and has presented them as such. But even his detractors and bashers know he's the king of pattern recognition which is why I had to give his ideas more than a passing thought and throw them out there. No doubt things will change and evolve over the next 2 weeks where Jeanne (we pronounce it Zhaan in LA, though it's "gene" by the official name) is concerned. But an early identification by a respected met who's ideas have verified better of late than anyone else's (pro or amateur) early games deserves mention. No one should panic, just be aware of the situation if you are in South Florida, then LA/MS/AL, that we've got a shot at another dual landfalling storm or one to come up from just south of Florida (one of my ideas in the predict the season thread in S2K).

Steve

cajungal · #2 Postby **cajungal** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:22 am

That is interesting because our meterologists say that Jeanne has little to no chance of getting in the gulf. That she would be Georgia or the Carolinas problem. Wasn't they saying the same thing about Ivan a week ago? That we would have absolutely nothing to worry about. We will see!

#3 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:28 am

cg,

I don't know what's going to happen 7-10 days out. Frankly, Bastardi doesn't either. He approaches tropical systems as part and products of the overall weather patterns. He makes his calls (right sometimes, wrong sometimes) based on what he sees. In cases of pattern storms like Alex and Gaston, he's the best. In cases of deep tropical systems (Ivan), TPC is best. If this verifies (and I think the confidence is extremely low), his worst bashers would even have to bow because not a single one of them has put anything similar out. He was gold with Lili and Isidore in 2002 when their respective end games became apparent to him. As a victim of both, he earned the 60 bucks he'll get from me every hurricane season from now on.

Steve

#4 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:29 am

I think JB's reasoning is sound given the building forecast consensus for the eastern ridge strengthening to perhaps its maximum western extent for the season before a probable flip in the pattern around the end of the month. That being said, you have to have a storm to track first, and the next 12 to 24 hours will show whether or not Debby...ahem :wink:

...Jeanne , is destined for bigger things.

x-y-no · #5 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:35 am

The GFS is seeing that splitting idea with Ivan. But it does a loop-de-loop with Jeanne, brushes SFL and heads NNE with her.

Not that storm tracks mean a damn in the GFS beyond a day or two. Interesting idea, though. First we have to see if there's anything left of Jeanne after today.

tallbunch · #6 Postby **tallbunch** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:35 am

Has JoeB ever been right this far out?

Wouldn't it be weird if GA gets a hurricane this year. They haven't had one in a LONG time.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:38 am

Steve wrote:cg,

I don't know what's going to happen 7-10 days out. Frankly, Bastardi doesn't either. He approaches tropical systems as part and products of the overall weather patterns. He makes his calls (right sometimes, wrong sometimes) based on what he sees. In cases of pattern storms like Alex and Gaston, he's the best. In cases of deep tropical systems (Ivan), TPC is best. If this verifies (and I think the confidence is extremely low), his worst bashers would even have to bow because not a single one of them has put anything similar out. He was gold with Lili and Isidore in 2002 when their respective end games became apparent to him. As a victim of both, he earned the 60 bucks he'll get from me every hurricane season from now on.

Steve

I'm sorry, but the NHC was not best with Ivan. Joe called it at least 10 days in advance, while the NHC had Ivan going NORTH of Hispaniola, then through it, and made it an eastern/southern FL hurricane for quite some time...because the models have had this right-of-track bias. Joe did switch to go in line with the NHC for about a day, but then quickly switched back to his original pattern recognition ideology. Turns out he was slightly to the left in the end, but a central Gulf coast call from at least 10 days out is pretty damn good.

#8 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:40 am

Hurricanes do not go through strong ridges... period.... the bermuda high has played a major role in both Frances and Ivan, and will do so for Jeanne, provided she survives the interaction with the island... JB might be onto something... I agree with Steve's analogy on his overall calls.... he's seems to be better with certain type systems ... this might be the kind of system JB nails... I hope not... That being said, I think Jeanne has a real good chance of impacting Florida at the minimum... assuming she does survive and continues the general west track.. she gets stationary on the island and we won't have to worry about her...

#9 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:58 am

>>Has JoeB ever been right this far out?

Often. This year's best work was on Gaston which was scheduled to be there like 10-14 days before landfall.

>>I'm sorry, but the NHC was not best with Ivan.

Purdue,

Yeah, his overall ideas were far better than what TPC put out from the beginning (as he follows the patterns, they follow the models). I kind of threw in their 3-5 day call for WFL (one of the advisories) to throw them a bone. Their forecast from early on was garbage and is part of the reason why so many people seek out alternative sources of information. JMO

Steve

#10 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:09 am

While it sounds far fetched this early on, it certainly has valid points. I just hope this would never pan out as it would be devestating for the northern gulf coast and Florida. Ok, you got my attention Jeanne!

#11 Postby **bfez1** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:16 am

Quote from John Gumm--local met here from WWL-TV

Our concerns the last few days were valid. It is looking more and more like Jeannie could be a threat to the Gulf sometime next week. A big blocking high will build to her north and she won't be able to move north. Could be a threat to FL then the Gulf. More later.

John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

StrongWind · #12 Postby **StrongWind** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:52 am

and what is a "pattern storm"?

Steve wrote:cg,

I don't know what's going to happen 7-10 days out. Frankly, Bastardi doesn't either. He approaches tropical systems as part and products of the overall weather patterns. He makes his calls (right sometimes, wrong sometimes) based on what he sees. In cases of pattern storms like Alex and Gaston, he's the best. In cases of deep tropical systems (Ivan), TPC is best. If this verifies (and I think the confidence is extremely low), his worst bashers would even have to bow because not a single one of them has put anything similar out. He was gold with Lili and Isidore in 2002 when their respective end games became apparent to him. As a victim of both, he earned the 60 bucks he'll get from me every hurricane season from now on.

Steve

#13 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:42 am

A pattern storm is one that didn't develop say off the Cape Verdes, 40, or 50W as a classified system. Often they are products of their environments or known weather patterns that show predisposition to certain hotspots. Sometimes they come from waves interacting with ULL. Sometimes they might be land systems that drop into the Gulf and intersect with tropical energy. Sometimes they can be ULL's that work their way down in a specific area. Other times it will be a wave intersecting with the remains of an old frontal boundary. At other times still, something kicks in from innocuous energy during the changing of weather patterns.

Pattern storms are often referred to as homegrown systems or homebrew storms. (NOTE: They don't have to be close in because a synoptic setup in the central Atlantic could telegraph or brew something up).

I realize this post is not very technical. But it's the best way I can explain it.

Steve

wxwatcher2 · #14 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:01 pm

OMG, you actually pay for that kind of a forecast?

The man is an alarmist and is wrong more times than he is right.

#15 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:10 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Joe did switch to go in line with the NHC for about a day, but then quickly switched back to his original pattern recognition ideology.

And beat himself senseless for making the switch.

#16 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:11 pm

wxwatcher2 wrote:OMG, you actually pay for that kind of a forecast?

The man is an alarmist and is wrong more times than he is right.

Yawn. Please avoid the low and easy, all too well-tread path of turning yet another well-meaning thread into another boring Joe Bastardi bashfest.

Perhaps you and others sharing your opinion can ask the moderators to set up a permanent dedicated "Joe Bastardi opinion" forum off HH Tropical Wx so you may indulge to your heart's content. :roll:

#17 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:14 pm

wxwatcher2 wrote:OMG, you actually pay for that kind of a forecast?

The man is an alarmist and is wrong more times than he is right.

There should be an expectation that he will be wrong under strict verification.

On the other hand, the long range pattern forecasting he is doing is going to result in errors. That is expected.

By the way, did anybody ever notice the difference in the tone of what he says on Fox News or MSNBC and what he says in his column? Most of the bitching about JB is over what he says in his column. If nobody ever saw the column, there would be no beef about his public pronouncements.

#18 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:01 pm

>>OMG, you actually pay for that kind of a forecast?

Yeah I do. Do you have a problem with me spending my own money the way I choose to do so as part of my American birthright? Let's look at a few of your comments on Jeanne:

Jeanne is being torn apart in Hispaniola. It will take a few days for it to reorganize IF it does.

The NHC is slowly changnig horses adivsory after advisory on Jeanne and coming into the ideas he outlined on Wed. FWIW, their 11am advisory had it at 60 knots. The storm isn't that great looking, but it's partially split by some 9000+ foot mountains.

Oh gee, lets run to home depot and buy some more plywood and generators. IF tropical depression Jeanne comes this way (cent fla), it will dump some rain and might be 35 mph breeze.

Bastardi's got it at Cat 2 or 3 in the Bahamas for a few days. Let's see who's right after Monday or Tuesday. Maybe it's just me but it seems like you're here to troll and ridicule others. Some of us, within the Terms of Service, aren't afraid to take the bait. Not many people are willing to call out Derecho, but you know I've done it numerous times without breaking the rules. And if there's something to be said about him, he's borderline genius and highly informed on tropical systems. There's a big difference between him and someone trying to punk or ridicule people. Nothing personal, I don't know you from the next guy or gal. The board hosts and administrators do a fantastic job with this site. The least you (and all of us) could do is to respect other people and their feelings. It's not wrong to get a little dig in fun when necessary, but you don't have to continuously do it and come off like you're just around to smart-off and be a troublemaker.

Steve

#19 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:50 pm

wx2,

I know you from FLHurricane.com. You don't usually troll. I apologize for taking you to task, but I didn't realize you were the same guy.

Steve

#20 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:32 pm

Current track for Jeane out of the NHC seems to be pretty similar to the JB thoughts, huh?

:shoot:

(I've discovered the second set of emoticons...)

Bastardi on the Jeanne setup for 1947 NO cane/Betsy/Andrew

Bastardi on the Jeanne setup for 1947 NO cane/Betsy/Andrew

Who is Joe Bastardi?

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